This article is part of our Football Picks series.
The first Monday night match of the season presents what should be a fun battle between two teams that each won their opener. West Ham looked a bit nervy at times in the back against Newcastle, but after a favorable penalty call and a counterattack, they won 4-2.
Leicester City's win was a bit more methodical. They got their Jamie Vardy goal in the first half and then held on the rest of the way. They were far from dominant, as Wolves finished with 1.49 expected goals compared to just 0.51 for Leicester. Given the situation, I think Leicester somewhat disappointed in how they played, but that's kind of what they do. They score when given the chance and then hold onto wins. Wolves are almost the opposite: they don't score when given chances and give up unlucky goals.
Either way, this is another spot where I like the home team. West Ham are +160 to beat Leicester, which is probably the correct number. I think Leicester are better overall, but West Ham won both meetings last season, 3-0 in October and 3-2 at home in March. It's hard to look at possession and shot totals for either of those matches because the Hammers bagged two first-half goals in both and then Leicester were on the front foot the rest of the way. But combine that confidence with playing behind their fans and I think the +160 is worth a bet.
If you don't want a side, I think there will be goals between them, similar to last season. While they both prefer to play off the counter, when two teams with that kind of style play against each other it can lead to goals. It also helps that their back lines are mediocre. Going back to last season, they both allowed more goals than Aston Villa but also scored more than Chelsea.
You can get over 2.5 goals at -125, which isn't a terrible number. There's also a chance the oddsmakers are putting too much into Leicester's opening clean sheet, something I wouldn't do because of a matchup against Wolves.
West Ham will be going for that first-half goal again and with a packed stadium behind them, I think they'll get it. The Hammers are -110 to score the first goal and even better, you can get them +210 on the first half moneyline. If Leicester play the same as last weekend, I think West Ham get the early edge. If you want something safer, West Ham are -115 to lead at either halftime or full time.
