This article is part of our DraftKings Fantasy Soccer series.
MATCHES (EST)
- 10:00 am: Newcastle United vs. West Bromwich Albion
- 12:30 pm: Manchester United vs. Manchester City
- 3:00 pm: Everton vs. Chelsea
For more detailed stats and odds, check out the
THE CHALK
Kevin De Bruyne, MCI at MUN ($10,700): De Bruyne is the most expensive player on the slate because he takes a majority of set pieces for the biggest favorite. The Manchester Derby is expected to be somewhat close, and there will surely be people who think the home side can get a result and favor Bruno Fernandes ($10,300) because he has more upside, but De Bruyne profiles as the safer play because he's not sharing set pieces as much as Fernandes. There will surely be people who try to play both, which is possible if you pay down at a number of other spots, but with the forward slots tough to fill, at least from a floor perspective, it seems unlikely that the two-most expensive players on the slate in a lineup together will be optimal.
FORWARDS
James Rodriguez, EVE v. CHE ($9,400): James is expected to have a monopoly of set pieces for a home side, though we can't ignore that Everton are actually underdogs in this one. The absence of Lucas Digne (ankle) is why James should be over all dead balls, and while has the safer floor of any other forward on the slate, you're paying up quite a bit for a player who is unlikely to reach any kind of drastic ceiling. Because of that, he may not be overly popular in cash games despite the solid floor, and GPP players seem more likely to look at Dominic Calvert-Lewin ($8,300), the Premier League's leader in goals, or Richarlison ($8,100) because they both have more goal upside than James.
Timo Werner, CHE at EVE ($7,800): The lack of reliable forwards on the slate puts Werner in the cash-game conversation even though he's usually viewed as goal-dependent. He actually seems a bit under-priced considering he has some of the highest anytime goal scorer odds on the slate and Chelsea have the highest implied team total. Werner's floor is mostly from shots, but again, we don't have many good floor options so Werner and Christian Pulisic ($7,500) could be considerations. Additionally, some of the Manchester City attackers feel a bit under-priced too since they're the biggest favorite on the slate, with Raheem Sterling ($7,200) offering more salary relief than Gabriel Jesus ($7.600) and Riyad Mahrez ($8,500), though we should surely be on the lookout for Sergio Aguero ($5,900), who could be the most popular player on the slate if he's starting. Aguero recently returned from injury and seems highly unlikely to play 90 minutes, but no one has higher anytime goal scorer odds, and he's much cheaper than the other guys we're likely to consider.
Mason Greenwood, MUN v. MCI ($5,300): Fantasy players trying to roster De Bruyne and Fernandes will need some cheaper forwards, and Greenwood is one option even though he's an underdog. Greenwood fired off five shots in each of his last two games and bagged a goal last weekend against West Ham, and while he's not going to be able to attack quite as much against Manchester City, his cheaper salary helps mitigate that issue, as does Anthony Martial's ($5,800) if he can recover from a minor injury that held him out of Tuesday's Champions League match against RB Leipzig. Otherwise, you're relying on forwards from the game with the lowest implied total, whether it's Karlan Grant ($4,500) or Callum Robinson ($5,000) up front for West Brom or Miguel Almiron ($4,800) as a midfielder for Newcastle.
MIDFIELDERS
Mason Mount, CHE at EVE ($7,100): Mount is expected to take a majority of set pieces for the team with the highest implied goal total, so he will surely be popular in cash games. He got on the score-sheet with an assist last week against Leeds United, helping him to 24.8 fantasy points, so he definitely has GPP upside too, and it's fairly easy to pair him with one of the goal scorers like Werner, Pulisic or Olivier Giroud ($8,000). Mount's price is close enough to that of Jonjo Shelvey ($6,300) that most fantasy players will just find the $800 in salary to move up, though playing both is certainly viable since Shelvey should take set pieces for Newcastle.
Matthew Phillips, WBA at NEW ($3,400): The absence of Matheus Pereira (suspension) could open up a starting spot for Phillips, and he figures to be very popular if he's in because he'll have a role on set pieces for a very low salary. If Phillips isn't in, Conor Gallagher ($5,500) seems to be the most realistic set-piece taker for the Baggies, though his salary is a little high for a defensive midfielder who happens to get some corners. An absence for Phillips and Gallagher could allow Filip Krovinovic ($6,400) to get those opportunities, though if you're in that range you're probably playing Shelvey anyway. The defenders in this price range are better anyway, so it's probably Phillips or bust when it comes to set pieces for West Brom.
DEFENDERS
Reece James, CHE at EVE ($5,500): If Mount doesn't have a monopoly of set pieces it's because James is poaching a few for himself. Mount took every corner last week (Hakim Ziyech left in the 31st minute due to injury), but James did get a free-kick cross in, so he wasn't completely ignored. That being said, James is a very good attacker in open play anyway, enough so that he has been a more consistent fantasy-point scorer than left-back Ben Chilwell ($5,800), who makes for a reasonable play himself.
Alex Telles, MUN v. MCI ($6,000): Telles is the most expensive defender on the slate, which seems a bit odd considering Manchester United are a decent underdog, but a role on set pieces will always keep a defender expensive. There are definitely a number of paths to three-defender lineups, particularly in cash games, though it doesn't seem those will include all of James, Chilwell and Telles. Given the matchups, it's understandable why some may want to play James and Chilwell over Telles, but the latter is still a very solid crosser even with limited possession.
Kieran Gibbs, WBA at NEW ($2,500): Gibbs could be the cheapest starting defender on the slate, and he's actually a full-back! However, Gibbs has a long history of being a very enticing play only to produce almost no fantasy points (and sometimes he dips below zero), so you have to go into the play with the knowledge that it may not work out. Then again, how many points out of a $2,500 defender do you really need, especially when he's facing the team that's allowed the ninth-most crosses in the Premier League this season? If you want to focus on the favored side in this one, Javier Manquillo ($3,400) is also a true fullback, and he's playing the team that's allowed the fourth-most crosses in the league this season.
GOALKEEPER
David de Gea, MUN v. MCI ($3,900): de Gea is the cheapest goalkeeper on the slate, which really doesn't happen often because Manchester United are usually favored. Manchester United won both derbies last season by a combined 4-1 scoreline, and while that doesn't really matter at all for this season, they were underdogs in both of those matches and showed anything can happen in these cross-town rivalry games. It seems unlikely that fantasy players will be paying up for goalkeepers, so de Gea and Jordan Pickford ($4,200) could be decently targeted even though Sam Johnstone ($4,500) isn't that much more expensive and is playing in the game with the lowest total on the slate. It also doesn't hurt that he leads the Premier League in saves through 11 games.
