This article is part of our DraftKings Fantasy Soccer series.
MATCHES (ET)
- 10:00 am: Arsenal vs. Southampton
- 10:00 am: Chelsea vs. Leeds United
- 10:00 am: Liverpool vs. Aston Villa
For detailed stats and odds, check out the
FORWARDS
Romelu Lukaku, CHE v. LEE ($7,300): A lot of this depends on who starts for Chelsea, but if Lukaku gets another start on a short week, he has the second-best odds to hit the back of the net and while the odds don't say it, he has a better matchup than Liverpool. The main worry with Lukaku is that he got his first start midweek in more than a month and may not go a full 90 Saturday. The other side to that is he could brace in 70 minutes against Leeds, who won't have Kalvin Phillips and Liam Cooper, among others. I'm less confident in Timo Werner ($6,700) and Kai Havertz ($6,500), but neither is far behind in terms of scoring odds. Christian Pulisic ($5,900) will probably be popular if he starts, partly because of price and his nationality.
My argument against Mohamed Salah ($10,800) is that he still doesn't have much of a floor and has surpassed 18 fantasy points in two of his last nine matches in all competitions. That's a high number to reach and while it's possible, he needs multiple appearances on the score-sheet to hit value. You could consider Sadio Mane ($7,400) and Diogo Jota ($8,700) for cheaper, though the former is a bit easier to swallow in cash games. Of note, Villa have allowed just four big chances in four matches under Steven Gerrard.
Alexandre Lacazette, ARS v. SOU ($5,200): I won't say I believe in this play, but Lacazette has similar goalscoring odds to Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang ($7,000) and he's noticeably cheaper. The downside to Lacazette is that he had negative points last match and is barely averaging a shot per 90 minutes. The upside is that Southampton won't have numerous starters because of suspension and are starting a 40-year-old goalkeeper, who was signed this week out of necessity. You could dip into Nathan Tella ($4,100) if you don't trust Arsenal, as he's always active when on the pitch and he has a similar floor to a lot of the $5,000 and $6,000 players. Tyler Roberts ($4,600) is projected to start up front for Leeds again with Patrick Bamford and Rodrigo battling issues.
MIDFIELDERS
James Ward-Prowse, SOU at ARS ($6,700): Southampton are down some players, but that doesn't mean Ward-Prowse will be non-existent. He's surprisingly cheap and in the best matchup of the underdogs. He totaled 20 crosses in two matchups against Arsenal last season, hitting a floor of at least 10 fantasy points in each. The upside isn't there like with some of the Chelsea guys, but he's probably the safest non-defender on the slate. Mason Mount ($9,300) seems a tad expensive, especially with Hakim Ziyech at $7,900, but it's hard to make a call on those two before seeing lineups.
Jorginho, CHE v. LEE ($4,600): I assume Jorginho will play through his back issue again, something he did in the loss to West Ham. The presence of Lukaku may take away some PK upside, but he's still been surprisingly solid in recent matches, so much that his price was hovering around $6,000. Most important is that he has seven shots and nine chances created in his last eight matches in all competitions and now doesn't have to deal with Kalvin Phillips. He allows you to spend up elsewhere while also providing a touch of upside.
I wrote about Jorginho, but he doesn't stand out that much in terms of value in the midfield. Jordan Henderson ($5,100) received a price cut, but I think he has a chance to go a full 90 again after resting midweek. There are plenty of underdog options to use with Daniel James ($5,500) and Jack Harrison ($4,800) possibilities if Chelsea don't get anyone back from injury, while John McGinn ($5,300) always seems to hit his numbers no matter the matchup.
DEFENDERS
Marcos Alonso, CHE v. LEE ($6,300): I know I'm talking about Chelsea a lot, but the Leeds injuries can't be overlooked. The bonus with Alonso is that you're getting him at a discount after two down matches away from home. He's cheaper than teammate Reece James ($7,700), who was asked to play central midfield midweek, leading to much less upside. Even if James is back on the right wing, I like the price difference because Alonso can provide the same kind of upside. If you want to go full Chelsea defensive stack, a James-Alonso combination is viable, but you may not have enough to get the Liverpool full-backs.
Trent Alexander-Arnold, LIV v. AVL ($8,000): There are four top defenders to choose from on this slate and if you go elsewhere, it's a massive risk. Alexander-Arnold has the best floor on the slate and while Villa are limiting big chances, that won't stop him from launching crosses from anywhere on the pitch. It's been a better strategy to back the cheaper Andrew Robertson ($5,900) in recent contests and while that's a viable strategy, Alexander-Arnold is always the safer play and he gets the arguably better matchup on the other side if Ashley Young ($3,800) starts at left-back again.
If you want to spend down, Young is in play, but the Southampton full-backs are a little safer between Valentino Livramento ($4,500) and Kyle Walker-Peters ($3,600). Stuart Dallas ($4,900) isn't the worst idea, though some of that depends on where he lines up for Leeds.
GOALKEEPER
Emiliano Martinez, AVL at LIV ($3,600): Betting against Liverpool at Anfield is rarely a good idea, but Martinez has put in serviceable performances most of the season. He's made multiple saves in each of his last seven starts and has hit at least six fantasy points in all four games under Gerrard. Playing at Anfield is another story, but Liverpool weren't automatic in their match against Wolves and that could happen again. In terms of odds, Edouard Mendy ($5,900) makes the most sense, but I'd rather save a few bucks and go Aaron Ramsdale ($5,500) at home where he has a clean sheet in his last two.
