DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Tuesday EPL Picks

MATCHES (EST)

• 1:00 pm: Sheffield United vs. West Bromwich Albion
• 1:00 pm: Wolverhampton vs. Arsenal
• 3:15 pm: Manchester United vs. Southampton
• 3:15 pm: Newcastle United vs. Crystal Palace

For detailed stats and odds, check out the

DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Tuesday EPL Cheat Sheet

THE CHALK

Bruno Fernandes, MUN v. SOU ($10,900): There are a lot of very good floor players on this slate, which will make some question paying up for Fernandes, the most expensive player available. The difficulty is that a lot of them are at the top of the price scale, which means we'll have to prioritize our targets:

He has been taking significantly fewer set pieces lately, but it hasn't had a dramatic effect on Fernandes' fantasy production. Here's a breakdown of Fernandes' first 10 Premier League starts this season compared to his last 10:

Yes, he's dropped almost two fantasy points per 90 minutes, but his lower average is also higher than anyone else on the slate's season average. Additionally, Manchester United are the biggest favorite with the highest implied goal total, and no player has higher anytime goal scorer odds than Fernandes. Yes, he's expensive and not on all set pieces, but he's the best play on the slate.

FORWARDS

Pedro Neto, WOL v. ARS ($10,400): Neto has been one of the most consistent floor players in the league this season because of his role on set pieces for Wolves, who are home underdogs against Arsenal. The availability of Bukayo Saka ($10,200) will have a decent effect on Neto's popularity, as the former has been a star for the Gunners and a popular play in cash games and GPPs because of his dominance of their set pieces when he's in. He missed last weekend's match due to injury and will have a late fitness test after training Monday. This certainly doesn't mean you have to pay up for one or both (both is almost impossible if you play Fernandes), but they could be popular for those who want to pay up for a forward in cash games.

Nicolas Pepe, ARS at WOL ($7,800): Pepe benefited the most from Saka's absence this past weekend, scoring 15.6 fantasy points without a score-sheet appearance in Arsenal's scoreless draw with Manchester United. He took all of Arsenal's set-pieces in the first half, though he lost those opportunities to Willian ($8,100) in the second half after the latter came on in the 46th minute. Both starting would muddy the situation (and that's ignoring that we probably don't want either if Saka starts), enough so that fantasy players could turn to Crystal Palace, though there is a strong possibility they'll have to debate between Andros Townsend ($8,200) and Eberechi Eze ($7,700) because they split set pieces. Townsend didn't start this past weekend, allowing Eze a monopoly of dead balls for most of the match, but it was a 60th-minute goal on his only shot on target that bailed fantasy players out, as he finished with only two crosses and zero chances created. The possibility of Townsend starting and Eze not could have fantasy players going his way, as only one team has allowed more crosses in the Premier League than Newcastle, and Townsend is much more of an open-play crosser than Eze. Or if you don't want to deal with set pieces at all, Adama Traore ($7,300) lining up against an out-of-position Cedric Soares could be funny.

MIDFIELDERS

Matheus Pereira, WBA at SHU ($8,600): This is incredibly lazy analysis (if you can even call it that), but Pereira is turning into one of those players who just always gets there. Whether it's a high-floor game or a goal in a low-floor one, Pereira is consistently scoring near double-digit fantasy points. His price is more suited for those building more balanced lineups (i.e. no Fernandes or Neto/Saka) because he's fairly expensive, but he's also taking all set pieces against a team that currently sits 20th in the table. From a floor perspective, Pereira is certainly enticing if you have the salary, especially with James Ward-Prowse ($8,300) playing for the biggest underdog.

Allan Saint-Maximin, NEW v. CRY ($4,600): Ryan Fraser ($6,400) is under-priced given his shared role on set pieces and good open-play attacking upside, but he's also questionable to play because of an illness, which should leave set pieces to Jonjo Shelvey ($6,700). The difficulty with simply moving over to Shelvey is that he's pretty reliant on those set pieces for his attacking stats, making him a tad over-priced for an underdog. Meanwhile, Saint-Maximin has no role on set pieces but is active by taking shots, creating chances and drawing fouls, and his lower salary is a benefit for a home team desperate for points. Saint-Maximin's fantasy returns have been limited this season because he has dealt with a number of injuries, but he's fully fit now and should start, according to manager Steve Bruce, which is helpful knowledge because Newcastle play in the latter part of the slate. It's a riskier play than some like to make in cash games, but the lower price should help alleviate that.

Oliver Norwood, SHU v. WBA ($4,200): Norwood is super boring and doesn't even have a monopoly of set pieces, but some people are going to be drawn to him because of those scant opportunities while playing as a favorite against the team that's allowed the most crosses in the Premier League this season. John Fleck ($6,800) is definitely the better Sheffield United midfielder, though his price is high enough that he will probably be ignored unless there's a path to a monopoly of free kicks. Norwood's low price at least comes with some assist potential if he can get his corners right, while Robert Snodgrass ($4,000) would be much more tempting on the other side if he had any set piece responsibilities. In fact, West Brom have a couple viable cheap plays if they start, including Grady Diangana ($3,500) and Matthew Phillips ($3,400), though both seem unlikely to play 90. Otherwise, Manchester United's Fred ($3,200) could actually be the best of the cheaper group, as he does a decent amount of defensive work to give himself a solid floor, and he could get a few attacking opportunities given how heavily favored Manchester United are at home against Southampton.

DEFENDERS

Luke Shaw, MUN v. SOU ($6,300): Fernandes' excellent play without set pieces doesn't mean we should ignore the set pieces of the biggest favorite on the slate, which is why Shaw or Alex Telles ($6,200) could be popular in cash games, especially since their floors are probably higher than the midfielders in their price range and they have clean sheet equity. It's worth recognizing that Manchester United don't have the highest clean sheet odds on the slate (that goes to Sheffield United against West Brom), but they're still high enough to think about. Unlike what we've seen with Manchester City recently, paying down for Man United's center-backs probably isn't the ideal move, especially with Harry Maguire at a laughable (for cash games) $4,600, though there will still be people hoping for bailouts from Victor Lindelof ($3,100) or Eric Bailly ($2,800).

Kean Bryan, SHU v. WBA ($3,200): It's more likely that Jayden Bogle ($4,800) gets the start at left wing-back for Sheffield United, but Bryan would be a desirable play if he gets the call. He scored in his last start, one that lasted only 53 minutes due to injury, but his low price against the team that allows the most crosses in the Premier League is surely something that should be firmly on the radar. Even better: Sheffield United play in the early part of the slate, so we'll know before lock if Bryan is starting. If you're looking for more cheap plays, Ki-Jana Hoever ($3,400) could start again as a wing-back for Wolves.

Tyrick Mitchell, CRY at NEW ($4,200): Mitchell's spot in the starting XI isn't guaranteed after Patrick van Aanholt ($5,100) got the call this past weekend, so we have to be weary of that because Crystal Palace play in the later part of the slate. I guess the benefit is that Javier Manquillo ($4,000) could start on the other side of the game, so it's not like you're totally out of options. As mentioned multiple times, Newcastle give up a ton of crosses, and while Mitchell isn't a high-volume crosser, he does get involved and his lower price is helpful. Of course, if Bryan or Hoever start, more fantasy players will go there for the salary savings.

GOALKEEPER

Sam Johnstone, WBA at SHU ($4,200): Johnstone is the second-cheapest goalkeeper on the slate and lining up against a team that's scored four goals in their last seven games. They did have a tough run of fixtures (v. Tottenham, at Manchester United and at Manchester City), but this match still has the lowest implied total on the slate. David de Gea ($5,800) is the most expensive keeper on the slate and could be popular with his implied win and clean sheet odds, and with double-digit fantasy points in six of his last seven, he could be viable as a slight hedge against not rostering Manchester United's goal scorers (other than Fernandes).