This article is part of our Football Picks series.
Bournemouth look to upset Manchester City again when they host them at the Vitality Stadium on Sunday.
Bournemouth have hit a bit of a rough patch, as their hopes of securing a place in European football is waning by the day. The Cherries have only picked up one point in their last four Premier League matches, so they desperately need to get things back on track. They beat Manchester City 2-1 in the lone meeting between these two sides, though that was back in November.
Meanwhile, Manchester City are still struggling to find their form coming off a 2-2 draw with Brighton. By their standards, it's been a disaster of a campaign and they're simply just trying to secure a spot in next season's Champions League. They're favorites to win the FA Cup, but this is going to be an incredibly difficult match.
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FA Cup Best Bets for Bournemouth vs. Manchester City
Betting on Anytime Goalscorer
This is a pretty low price for Erling Haaland to score (+100) compared to what he's normally at.
Haaland usually struggles when opponents play low blocks and double him in the box, something that's unlikely to be the case in this match. Bournemouth are going to relentlessly press Manchester City high up the pitch and when teams have done that, City normally use Haaland as a target man.
City will get Haaland in one-on-ones against the opposing center-back and more often than not, he's going to win that duel. Even better, both Dean Huijsen and Milos Kerkez are suspended for this game, which means the Cherries will be lacking for bodies on their back line with Marcos Senesi still not 100 percent.
Either way, Bournemouth's defense hasn't been that great lately. They've conceded 10 expected goals in their last six Premier League matches and they're 14th in in the league in expected threat, so they will give up chances in this match.
I like the value on Haaland to score at +100.
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Betting on Anytime Assist
Bournemouth love to hammer the left side of the pitch and that's where Manchester City are going to be weakest in this match.
Since Manuel Akanji, Nathan Ake and John Stones are all out, that means that Abdukodir Khusanov and Rico Lewis are going to have to play on the right flank. That's where over 40 percent of Bournemouth's attacks come because they like to use Kerkez to bomb down the flank to combine with Antoine Semenyo. With Kerkez suspended, that could be youngster Julio Soler instead, who is just as attack heavy.
In terms of Kerkez, he's completed 19 crosses into the penalty area and has five assists on the season. He's also made the most off-ball runs down the left flank than anyone else in the Premier League.
Soler isn't Kerkez, but he'll play in that same left-back role since Bournemouth don't have other options. Soler went 90 in the FA Cup third round win against West Brom before playing with the Argentina U20s for a month.
Manchester City don't face a lot of crosses, but they're allowing the highest cross completion percentage in the league at above 15 percent.
I love the value on Soler to have an assist in this match at +1600.
Betting on Goal Props
Both of these teams are going to press high up the pitch, which should create a back-and-forth match.
Manchester City's press has been terrible all season and has been even worse lately. Since the beginning of February, they have the fourth highest PPDA (Passes Per Defensive Action) because their high press isn't hitting home. That means teams have been able to play through them and create a ton of chances.
While Bournemouth's press has been the best in the Premier League at turning opponents over high up the pitch, they've been vulnerable once that first line of press is broken. They're also vulnerable through the middle, which is where Manchester City want to play.
The other problem for Bournemouth is that they're one of the worst teams in the Premier League at playing with a lead because they remain super aggressive out of possession.
I like the value on Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 goals at -150
Bournemouth vs. Manchester City Betting Picks, FA Cup Quarterfinal, Sunday, March 30
- Erling Haaland Anytime Goalscorer (+100)
- Julio Soler Anytime Assist (+1600)
- Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals (-150)
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