This article is part of our FanDuel Fantasy Soccer series.
MATCHES (EDT)
- 10:00 am: Crystal Palace vs. Leeds United
- 12:30 pm: Chelsea vs. Sheffield United
- 3:00 pm: West Ham United vs. Fulham
For detailed stats and odds, check out the
FORWARDS/MIDFIELDERS
Timo Werner, CHE v. SHU ($22): Chelsea are the biggest favorite on the slate, which means Werner has the best odds to score. He has four goals and one assist in his last three starts and seems to have taken over penalty duties from Jorginho ($14). But unlike some of the other top players, it's reasonable to fade him even with the best odds to score. Werner scored a brace midweek against Rennes, yet he had a floor of zero fantasy points. He's Chelsea's best option to hit the back of the net, but he's playing a Sheffield United side that has yet to allow more than two goals to anyone. The only chance for Werner to break the slate is if he bags a brace because even if he scores once, it's possible he finishes with fewer than 30 fantasy points. Tammy Abraham ($16) is in the same mold except he plays less and is not as good as Werner. Hakim Ziyech ($17) has had some great matches, but he's also an option to be subbed off early in addition to having a low floor in recent wins against Rennes and Burnley. Mason Mount's ($18) fantasy value is attached to set pieces, which is no longer something to bet on and his price is a bit extreme. Chelsea may have the highest implied goal total, but none of their forwards have overwhelming floors and it's unlikely they score more than two goals. Still, that won't stop me from backing Werner given the other forwards.
Patrick Bamford, LEE at CRY ($20): The problem with fading Chelsea is that there isn't a ton else out there. Leeds United are barely favored in a match with the lowest implied goal total, yet I think Bamford makes more sense than anyone else. He has at least one shot on target in each of his seven starts, compiling six goals from 27 shots. A lot of those came when he bagged a hat trick, but he's been consistent and his floor is often better than Werner's, hitting at least 12 fantasy points in all but one match. Maybe the best thing about Leeds is that they have a few guys with reliable floors, meaning they may be better to stack in cash games. Jack Harrison ($17) has at least 15 fantasy points in five of six starts, mostly from the 17 chances he's created from the wing. Mateusz Klich ($16) is more reliant on defensive stats now that he's playing in more of a defensive role, though he's splitting set pieces and is a decent bet to hit at least 10 points. Crystal Palace have been hard to figure out, but they've allowed 11 goals in their last six matches, something Leeds can capitalize on.
Pablo Fornals, WHU v. FUL ($15): Things are a bit different for West Ham without Michail Antonio, at least in terms of fantasy. Sebastien Haller ($16) was benched last season for a reason, and he completed just five passes without a shot last week, albeit in a loss to Liverpool. Haller is a great tournament play, but I don't think he's good and don't want to recommend him. Fornals may be the next-best option to hit the net with a shot on goal in each of his last four starts, two of them goals. Normally, Jarrod Bowen ($17) would be the guy, but he has one shot in his last three starts, totaling a combined 4.3 fantasy points. Tomas Soucek ($14) is more of a cash play because of defensive stats, though he also gets forward more than Declan Rice ($12). The positive for the Hammers in this spot is that it's a massive downgrade in competition compared to the last month. Since losing to Newcastle in the opener, they've played six teams who all finished in the top half of the table last season. While Fulham are playing better and have been more focused defensively, I still give the edge to West Ham given how they've fought against top teams.
Andros Townsend, CRY v. LEE ($16): The main decision to make on this slate is if you want to go for goals or simply stick with forwards and midfielders who have the highest floors. Townsend is in the latter category, hitting 20 points in each of the last two matches, partly from defensive stats like tackles and interceptions. Combine that with the 1.62 chances created he averages every 90 minutes, and he's a decent cash play with some upside. He had two shots on goal last match, but he had just one in the prior six. If you want upside, Wilfried Zaha ($17) fits that mold, though he has failed to surpass five fantasy points in three of the last five matches. Anything could happen in this matchup and that could mean a brace for Zaha or no shots on target or chances created. Similarly to the slate as a whole, he's unpredictable. If you don't want to mess with Crystal Palace, Ademola Lookman ($15) has been a decent floor option with 12 shots (four on target) and seven chances created in three starts. He doesn't get the same kind of opportunities as Aleksandar Mitrovic ($16), but he's more willing to take risks, which has led to a slightly higher floor. There are plenty of players who have floors near 10 points, the quest is to find the ones who also have decent upside.
DEFENDERS
Max Lowe, SHU at CHE ($6): If, for some reason, you need to save money at defender, Lowe is the cheapest expected starter. He doesn't have much of a floor as a wing-back, but he's cheap and should accrue some defensive stats against Chelsea, especially on the same side as Reece James. Otherwise, the numbers point to teams like Leeds United and Fulham forcing more defensive stats than Chelsea, which is somewhat surprising. Leeds are the most favorable defensive matchup, forcing the fifth-most clearances and fourth-most interceptions per match; that means stacking Gary Cahill ($8) and Cheikhou Kouyate ($12), who should get you at least 20 fantasy points, if not more.
Antonee Robinson, FUL at WHU ($12): Despite Ben Chilwell ($15) being on the slate, I think Robinson is the safer play if you have the cash. He's been one of the most consistent fantasy defenders in the league, hitting at least 14 fantasy points in all four starts from a variety of stats. He adds a touch of upside with seven chances created, but he also accrues clearances, interceptions and tackles. Chilwell hasn't scored above 10.8 fantasy points in his last three starts in all competitions and doesn't have a firm role on set pieces with Ziyech in the squad. If you prefer betting on a clean sheet, Chilwell is viable, though a lot of the expensive defenders have had higher floors of late, including his teammates.
GOALKEEPER
Edouard Mendy, CHE v. SHU ($14): Mendy is the biggest favorite and has the best odds for a clean sheet. While I wouldn't consider him on a bigger slate, most of the goals scored Saturday will likely be random outside of Werner, which is why spending up on Mendy may be the best idea. He's yet to allow a goal in six starts for Chelsea, and Sheffield United have been one of the lower-scoring teams in the league. Of course, that means the Blades will probably score the opener and then Chelsea will push the rest of the way, leaving zero saves for Mendy. If you're worried about that, any of the other goalkeepers are playable. Outside of Sheffield United, the other five teams have a chance of winning and securing a clean sheet, and that includes Alphonse Areola ($7) against a Michail Antonio-less West Ham.
