FPL Bargain Bin: Gameweek 29 Value Picks

FPL Bargain Bin: Gameweek 29 Value Picks

This article is part of our FPL Bargain Bin series.

When playing fantasy soccer, it is all about evaluating situations for chances. The best players are typically those who get more chances. The league leaders in goals tend to be the guys that put more shots on target. A quick look at the current top-5 goal scorers shows that they also rank in the top-5 for shots on target (tables are sortable):

PlayerTeamGoalsShots on Target
Diego Costa Chelsea 17 33
Sergio Aguero Manchester City 17 41
Harry Kane Tottenham 16 34
Charlie Austin QPR 15 40
Alexis Sanchez Arsenal 13 33
Saido Berahino West Brom 12 25
Papiss Cisse Newcastle 11 17
Robin van Persie Manchester United 10 30
Wayne Rooney Manchester United 10 19
David Silva Manchester City 10 16
Eden Hazard Chelsea 10 23
Olivier Giroud Arsenal 10 19

The best way to put shots on target is to attempt shots. Besides Diego Costa, the other four top-5 goal scorers are all in the top-10 for shot attempts:

Charlie Austin QPR 15 103
Sergio Aguero Manchester City 17 96
Graziano Pelle Southampton 8 94
Christian Eriksen Tottenham 9 81
Romelu Lukaky Everton 7 81
Alexis Sanchez Arsenal 13 81
Harry Kane Tottenham 16 78
Wilfried Bony Manchester City 9 73
Danny Ings Burnley 9 73
Santi Cazorla Arsenal 7 68
Yaya Toure Manchester City 7 66
Diego Costa Chelsea 17 65
Saido Berahino West Brom 12 65
Robin van Persie Manchester United 10 65

Even though he has not attempted a large number of shots, Costa can provide more proof of the correlation between goals and shots. Costa has played in 21 league matches this season and has scored in 13 of them. Of those, Costa attempted fewer than three shots just twice. Of the eight matches Costa did not score, he attempted more than two shots twice. Costa's chances of scoring go up considerably when he attempts at least three shots. You can take advantage of this if you can identify matchups when Costa and Chelsea are expected to attempt a lot of shots.

Everything discussed with Costa can translate to other players as well. This is especially true when looking for bargains for your fantasy team each gameweek. Look for opponents that allow a lot of shots and see who their opponent will be.

When looking for bargain defenders, the inverse is true: look for opponents that attempt few shots. It can also be helpful to look into home/road splits for these stats and some teams may get defensive on the road and not pressure the net much. At the end of the day, all your defender needs is a clean sheet for good fantasy value and that strategy will play right into your hands.

With this in mind, let's take a look at some of the best bargain options for Gameweek 29:


Costel Pantilimon
We were bullish on picking players with home matches against Queens Park Rangers earlier in the season because of the great matchup they provided. It's still a good matchup (and we'll pick on them later), but even QPR has twice as many away goals as Aston Villa, who has scored a remarkably low four road goals in 14 matches. The last time Aston Villa scored an away goal in league play came back on Dec. 2. Don't get too caught up in all the goals they've scored lately. Their last two matches came against West Brom, a rivalry can lead to anything. This is still a team that struggles to score and you should take advantage of it. The last time Pantilimon faced Aston Villa, he kept a clean sheet while making three saves. He might not need to make as many this time around, but a clean sheet is very likely for Pantilimon at home this weekend.


Aleksandar Kolarov
Despite not yet playing 1,000 league minutes (five other Manchester City defenders have over 1,500), Kolarov leads all City defenders with 16 shot attempts and is third with 14 assisted shots. He has always been a fantasy factor, but his sporadic playing time always leaves fantasy owners leery of selecting him. Recently, his playing time has been more consistent. He has been in the Manchester City starting XI for each of the last four league matches and has played the full 90 minutes. With the likelihood of that continuing, Kolarov is an excellent option on the road against Burnley. The Clarets have struggled lately, scoring just four goals in their last six league matches and being shut out in three of those. The combination of the good clean sheet opportunity and the offensive potential provides good value for Kolarov this weekend.


Marouane Fellaini
Chances can come from anywhere. We already discussed that increased opportunity can come from playing a poor opponent, but increased opportunity can also be generated internally.

An injury to Robin van Persie has forced Manchester United to adjust their lineup a bit. The biggest winner is Wayne Rooney, but this is a bargain article and you are not hear to read the obvious. The other player with a lot to gain since the van Persie injury has been Fellaini. In the last league match, Fellaini played in central midfield and attempted four shots while putting two on target. He played a similar role in the FA Cup match against Liverpool with similar results (two shot attempts with both on target). In the same position this weekend, Fellaini could be ready to pounce at home against Tottenham. Spurs have allowed 20 goals in 13 away matches this season while falling in the bottom half of the rankings when it comes to shot attempts allowed on the road. Tottenham's home/road splits show they allow almost five more shot attempts on the road and are prime for the picking for home opponents looking to score goals.


Glenn Murray
They may be scoring more, but they are still Queens Park Rangers defensively. No team has allowed more away goals this season than QPR. In their four league away matches in 2015, QPR has allowed seven goals and regularly have allowed multiple per game. Under Alan Pardew, the Crystal Palace strategy has become more offensive and the players' stats have benefited. Murray has also benefited to some injuries to other Eagles strikers. Before being shown a red card his last time out, Murray had scored three times in two matches. Now back from serving his suspension, he will have a great opportunity to break through against QPR.

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Chris Mosinski
Fantasy sports connoisseur and expert soccer prognosticator.
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