This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Don't forget to check out our weekly soccer betting show Kits & Wagers, which covers Premier League betting every week of the season. This week the lads bet on big matchups for Manchester City and Liverpool, as well as a Saturday special.
It's another Premier League season and another incredible start for my betting article. It's become clear that I know more about teams than the public early in the season and then once that advantage fades, my luck (my knowledge?) runs out. Obviously, my goal is to change that this season, but easier said than done. I'll hopefully continue to better my record over the first month and see what happens. Given the matchups, this week seems a little harder than the prior two, but I still found a few things I liked.
Record: 7-3. Up $397 on $100 bets.
EPL Best Bets for Wolverhampton at Tottenham and Southampton at Leicester City
Parlay: Tottenham ML (-255) and Leicester/Southampton Over 2.5 Goals (-155) at +129 odds
Parlay bets can be found at the DraftKings Sportsbook. If you need to sign up, click through our DraftKings Promo page for a deposit bonus.
I'll start with another parlay because as I said last week, I'll keep providing one until I lose. The first part is pretty simple. Tottenham are at home and Wolves haven't exactly been impressive through two matches after managing just .89 expected goals at home against Fulham. While Wolves won the last meeting back in February (also at Tottenham), I can't see that happening again. For now, I trust Antonio Conte's team and I hope they don't let me down just yet.
To keep the trend of parlaying only early Saturday matches, I'm stuck with limited options. It feels almost too easy to take over goals in the Leicester City and Southampton match, but I feel like I hit that bet twice last season. Leicester and Southampton may have two of the most unreliable defenses in the league and being healthy hasn't changed things to start the season. My main worry is that Ralph Hasenhuttl will decide to go super defensive after allowing six goals in two matches and aim for a 1-0 win. He's screwed me before with that strategy, yet I believe Jamie Vardy and James Maddison can capitalize early in order to open things up. On the other end, Jonny Evans and Wesley Fofana are healthy, though Leicester are still having problems at the back of their midfield.
EPL Best Bets for Nottingham Forest at Everton
Everton and Nottingham Forest Under 2.5 Goals at -125
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I initially considered Everton to win, but I couldn't do it with this haphazard attack. They still have a massive hole up front without Dominic Calvert-Lewin and I can't take them to beat anyone. Of course, that means they'll continue more of a defensive approach and that's where I'm leaning in this matchup. I figure Frank Lampard will want to keep this match in front of them and not allow Nottingham Forest to gain confidence. Forest are coming off a win and I bet on them last week, but I don't have faith in them away from home. This seems like a match that'll end 1-0 to either side, as either Everton will get a lucky goal and hold on, or Forest will score early with the home side failing to secure a goal without a true striker to pounce.
EPL Best Bets for Manchester City at Newcastle
Newcastle and Manchester City Under 2.5 Goals at +130
This bet doesn't appear safe on the surface but maybe because I'm crazy, I'm fairly confident in the under in this match. This bet is all about home/away splits because the peak of Newcastle was seen in the opener and then they looked pretty normal in last week's draw at Brighton. They've been awesome at home under Eddie Howe and they haven't allowed more than one goal in their last 11 matches at St. James' Park. Some of that has to do with opponent, but they dominated Arsenal at the end of last season and only lost 1-0 to Liverpool. As for Man City, they scored 17 fewer goals away from home last season and that's a reasonable stat to come back to.
Man City won 5-0 when these teams met in May, but I think playing at Newcastle changes everything. The Magpies will show a little more strength in the midfield and the goals hopefully won't come as freely for City. If you want a safer bet, 'No' on both teams to score is -106 and would get you a win even if City score more than two goals. However, I'll go for more money and ride Newcastle at home, with the hope they can put up more of a fight than last meeting.
EPL Best Bets for Liverpool at Manchester United
Manchester United and Liverpool Over 3.5 Goals at +135
It doesn't matter who plays in this match, there will be goals. Whether Manchester United come out flat again or not, I think Liverpool have the firepower to get a few goals in this spot even with some absences. At least four goals have been scored in each of the last four regular-season matchups and there was even four scored between them in a July friendly. The only way this bet doesn't hit is if Man United finally pick up their defense and play somewhat cohesive. I don't think that'll automatically happen against Liverpool, which is why I think there will be goals. On the other side, Liverpool will start either Joe Gomez or Nathaniel Phillips at center-back again and they don't want to settle for another draw.
EPL Betting Picks Gameweek 3
- Parlay: Tottenham ML (-255) and Leicester/Southampton over 2.5 goals (-155) at +129 odds
- Everton and Nottingham Forest Under 2.5 Goals at -125
- Newcastle and Manchester City Under 2.5 Goals at +130
- Manchester United and Liverpool Over 3.5 Goals at +135
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
Visit RotoWire all season for exclusive sports betting picks and our weekly Kits & Wagers betting show. Remember that betting apps vary in terms of odds, so we have an easy-to-use odds page that allows you to shop for the best lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and PointsBet.
