This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
It remains to be seen if last season's record-breaking scoring was a trend or if there will continue to be a ton of goals in the Premier League. In Gameweek 38 only a few months ago, every match had an implied total above three goals. Ahead of Gameweek 2, four matches are below three implied goals, while only three matches hit that mark for Gameweek 1.
After only 21 goals were scored in Gameweek 1, the books have slightly adjusted the odds in order to not get crushed on under bets again. Still, they're not going to make massive adjustments after only one set of matches. For the bookmakers to really adjust the odds, it could take up to five gameweeks if the majority of matches continue to hit the under.
That means if you believe the implied totals are still a bit high, you should have a couple more weeks of betting unders with great odds. In theory.
Want more Premier League bets? Check out Kits & Wagers, a weekly betting show, where Adam and Chris Owen provide six bets from six different matches.
Record: 0-0. Up $0 on $100 bets.
EPL Best Bets for Nottingham Forest at Southampton
Southampton vs. Nottingham Forest: Both teams to score and Southampton over 4.5 corners +125
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Even before Newcastle's red card in the opener, Southampton looked the part. They created chances and didn't falter on a massive stage at St. James' Park. While it didn't result in any points despite being up a man, it was still a positive for Russell Martin's side and that's good enough for me.
I think this is a great spot to bet numerous ways on Southampton corners. Whether it's -.5 in the first half at close to even odds or race to seven at +145, I think both are reasonable. Nottingham Forest are still the same team. They're not going to force the action if they don't have to and they'll attack on the counter when possible.
I expect Southampton to have close to 60-percent possession but both teams to have great opportunities. Southampton's goal allowed to Newcastle was pretty bad and I'm not sure they're defensively ready for the Premier League. That leads me to both teams to score and over on Saints corners.
EPL Best Bets for Arsenal at Aston Villa
Under 2.5 goals between Villa and Arsenal +115
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Unai Emery produced two masterclasses in this meeting last season resulting in 1-0 and 2-0 wins. I don't think the exact thing will happen again, but I think the results are relevant. At home, Villa scored a seventh-minute goal and still only allowed 12 shots and three corners for the match. In the Emirates fixture, Villa bagged two late goals after somehow keeping Arsenal at bay, allowing 1.64 xG on 18 shots and just four corners.
The corner number is relevant because Arsenal thrive on set pieces, while defending them may be one of Villa's biggest weaknesses. If you believe in Emery and historical corner numbers, taking under 5.5 corners for the Gunners at close to even odds would be wise.
That's a tough bet for me to take, so instead I'm looking at the total and taking under 2.5 goals at +115 odds. You could throw in under 10.5 corners to add some money, but I'm not desparate just yet.
EPL Best Bets for Brentford at Liverpool
Under 3.5 goals between Liverpool and Brentford -105
Last season kind of got away from Thomas Frank, as Brentford dealt with a ton of injuries and struggled to get back to their roots. While they still aren't completely healthy, I think Frank's preferred style of play is back after a useful offseason. That means Brentford will likely revert to a 5-3-2 formation in this matchup, focusing on chances off the counter more than anything.
Liverpool were awesome in the second half against Ipswich Town, but this matchup is against a more stable, connected side. I think the Reds could reach 10 corners if they don't score early, but I'd rather stick with the theme of this article.
There have been just seven goals scored the last three times these teams have met at Anfield with Brentford failing to score in all of them. While I think this will be a comptetive match, Brentford still probably don't have enough to win in Arne Slot's home debut. I think it could be another 2-0 or 2-1 type of result for Liverpool at home. Again, if you want more money, add Liverpool double chance to this bet.
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EPL Betting Picks Matchday 2
- Southampton vs. Nottingham Forest: Both teams to score and Southampton over 4.5 corners +125
- Under 2.5 goals between Villa and Arsenal +115
- Under 3.5 goals between Liverpool and Brentford -105
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2023: 45-69-2. Down $1,482 on $100 bets.
2022: 79-58-2. Up $2,281 on $100 bets.
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
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