This article is part of our Football Picks series.
Brentford are looking for three wins in their last four matches when they host Aston Villa on Saturday.
The Bees have been flying and are on the doorstep of a top-half finish and even a Europa Conference League spot. They're four points behind Aston Villa for 10th place, so this could be a huge match for them. They got hammered 3-1 in the previous meeting and will be out for revenge Saturday.
Aston Villa are in poor form, at least in the Premier League. They notched a crucial 3-1 win over Club Brugge to give them an almost certain trip to the Champions League quarterfinals. However, in league play, they only have one win in their last seven matches. They were hammered by Crystal Palace a couple weeks ago and need to start picking up results if they want to be playing Europe next season.
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Premier League Best Bets for Brentford vs. Aston Villa
Betting on Anytime Goalscorer
This is a fantastic matchup for Brentford offensively.
Since Aston Villa like to play a compact 4-4-2 and a high defensive line, the teams that are able to exploit them are the ones that can make runs off the back line successfully.
Brentford are one of the few teams that do that with a lot of success and the main man who gets on the end of those through balls is Yoane Wissa. He's scored 13 goals this season and has a 0.61 xG per-90-minute scoring rate. He's scored in back-to-back matches and scored a goal running off the back line recently against Leicester City.
At +187, I like the value on him to find the back of the net.
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Betting on Anytime Assist
Going along the same lines as Wissa, if Brentford exploit Aston Villa's high line and play balls in behind, Mikkel Damsgaard is likely going to be the one supplying them.
He's moved out wide into the the No. 10 role in their 4-2-3-1 that Thomas Frank has utilized the last six matches and he's flourished. Damsgaard has three assists in his last five matches and is up to 10 on the season.
He leads Brentford with 50 passes into the penalty area, 169 progressive passes and 18 passes that have led to a goal-creating action.
At +275, I like the value on him to have an assist in this match.
Betting on Player to Score or Assist
One of the reasons Aston Villa have gone through a rut is that their build-up patterns have become a little predictable.
They often create a passing triangle out wide and try to play the ball back centrally to eventually exploit teams through the middle. Unfortunately, elite pressing teams are often a foil for this strategy. Fortunately, Brentford are far from an elite pressing team. In the previous meeting they used this passing combination to perfection and exploited Brentford for three goals.
Morgan Rogers should benefit the most from this as the main creator for Aston Villa. He has 11 goals and assists on the season and is usually the one creating or getting on the end of a lot of their chances.
He scored against Brentford in the previous meeting, and I like the value on him to score or assist in this match at +187.
Brentford vs. Aston Villa Betting Picks
- Yoane Wissa Anytime Goalscorer (+187)
- Mikkel Damsgaard Anytime Assist (+275)
- Morgan Rogers to Score or Assist (+187)
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