This article is part of our Football Picks series.
Some teams are still cramming matches across competitions, but others like Manchester City had a reprieve with no Champions League to worry about midweek. While not a positive for the team in general, it definitely should help them later in the season without the extra matches to worry about. Others, like Liverpool and Aston Villa, have to travel, play in massive matches, and decide to rotate or run players into the ground even more.
Check out Kits & Wagers with Adam and Chris Owen on the RW Soccer YouTube, as they provide six bets on six different matches.
Premier League Best Bets for Manchester City at Nottingham Forest
The luck of the Forest is running out, taking three points in their last five matches, including two FA Cup games that went to PKs against Exeter City and Ipswich Town. Since beating Brighton 7-0, the Tricky Trees have fallen back to Earth. In a similar spot two weeks ago, home against Arsenal, Forest managed six shots and three corners en route to .40 xG. The Gunners had 13 shots and 11 corners for .99 xG.
I don't think City are at an elite level, but they don't have to worry about Champions League anymore and finally got a full week of rest before this match. City also haven't faced a mid-level team like Forest in a while with only Tottenham fitting that statement, but they play completely different.
When City hosted Forest in December, at almost their nadir in the season, they easily won 3-0 with two first-half goals, 67-percent possession and eight corners. I don't know how Forest are going to turn the tide that much since they don't change their style of play based on opponent. City will have possession and only be at risk of allowing goals off the counter.
Man City -1.5 corners makes sense, but I don't want to give a -125 bet. Instead it's a single-game parlay on corners. Unsurprisingly, I also like City moneyline at -105.
Betting tip: SGP: Man City over 4.5 corners + Forest under 4.5 corners = +130
EPL Best Bets for Fulham at Brighton & Hove Albion
Premier League SGPs are available at BetMGM. If you haven't signed up, you can use the BetMGM bonus code ROTOBONUS for a risk-free bet.
It's hard to bet teams like Brighton and Fulham when they play each other. Good-not-great teams who sit in the upper half of the table are always a little tricky. Some beat up on lesser competition and get smacked by better teams. Others contend with the elite and slip up against the bottom. But when they play each other, anything is possible.
Brighton have found a bit of form, winning their last five since the 7-0 loss to Forest. Mostly, they're scoring goals and holding onto leads, something that wasn't certain earlier in the season. They didn't exactly outplay Bournemouth yet won 2-1, while they used a Newcastle red card to take that one late in the FA Cup.
Both teams are scoring and both will be missing players due to suspension with Sasa Lukic and Tariq Lamptey out. I think it should be fairly open without one of these sides being overly dominant, leading to corners for both sides. You can bet that by itself or throw in both teams to score like me, as I think this is a logical 2-1 type of result to either side.
Betting tip: SGP: Both teams to score + both teams over 3.5 corners +210
Premier League Best Bets for Everton at Wolverhampton
Premier League SGP bets can be found at the DraftKings Sportsbook. If you need to sign up, click through our DraftKings promo code page for a deposit bonus.
I've wondered throughout the season what Wolves would look like without Matheus Cunha, who was in heavy transfer rumors in January. Following a recent red card, there should be an answer and I don't think it'll be good for Wolves. When he was injured earlier in the season, they struggled to score, losing 3-0 to both Nottingham Forest and Newcastle.
When you have a player who routinely operates the offense and gets the ball in attacking situations in addition to ripping goals from outside the box, his absence can be deafening.
While there have been more goals in recent Everton matches, the under 2.5 at -155 factors in no Cunha and Everton's success. Wolves don't have their best attacker and have already been playing defensive. And while Everton are allowing more goals recently, that doesn't mean their defense hasn't been as good.
No on both teams to score at -110 is an obvious bet. However, instead of worrying about a 1-1 result where Jorgen Strand Larsen gets an equalizer in stoppage time, I'm doing another SGP. I don't think Everton will lose and I don't think there will be many goals. Easy.
Betting tip: SGP: Everton double chance + Under 3.5 goals = -110
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Premier League Betting Picks Saturday, March 8; Gameweek 28
- SGP: Man City over 4.5 corners + Forest under 4.5 corners = +130
- SGP: Both teams to score + both teams over 3.5 corners +210
- SGP: Everton double chance + Under 3.5 goals = -110
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2023: 45-69-2. Down $1,482 on $100 bets.
2022: 79-58-2. Up $2,281 on $100 bets.
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
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