This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
It's kind of crazy how many games are being played just after the World Cup break. There will be unexpected lineups that will change how matches go, something I can't project in an article written more than 24 hours before they start. I think this is the period when my luck usually runs out, as new players are added in the transfer window and lineups are changed. But maybe this year will be different?
Record: 37-25-1. Up $1,380 on $100 bets.
EPL Best Bets for Southampton at Fulham
Fulham to beat Southampton +100
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I was an idiot and bet Southampton last week, as I put a little too much into a new manager and home-pitch advantage on Boxing Day. There's a chance they screw me again, but Fulham are close to full strength and at Craven Cottage, which is all the information I need.
Aleksandar Mitrovic isn't 100 percent, but he's well enough to score and play 85 minutes (something he did at Crystal Palace). The other boost is Kenny Tete, who returned from injury just before the break and Fulham don't really have a viable backup to him. At full strength, this is a good team that beat Brighton and Brentford at home in addition to drawing Liverpool in the opener. I'll take them to beat a seemingly less-talented Southampton side.
EPL Best Bets for Aston Villa at Tottenham
Both teams to score no draw between Tottenham and Aston Villa +150
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Apparently, Tottenham didn't change anything over the break. That means they're still the team that will allow opportunities and then come back from one or two-goal deficits as they put bodies forward. Aston Villa are still figuring out life under Unai Emery and since he joined, their matches have involved a lot of goals.
I think betting Villa to score the first goal (+165) is a viable strategy given how Tottenham have played, but I'll bet on goals instead. Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score is -130, so I have to go elsewhere for better value. Both teams to score no draw is always a hard bet to hit and I'd like better than +150 odds, but this match has all the makings of a 2-1 or 3-2 result to either side.
EPL Best Bets for Chelsea at Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest double chance against Chelsea +115
Are we positive Chelsea have figured things out after easily beating Bournemouth earlier in the week? Forest are better at home and that's shown in their goal differentials, -1 at home compared to -21 away. Similar to betting Thomas Frank and Brentford at home, I feel similar to Steve Cooper and Forest. Cooper knows how to motivate his team at home and this is a perfect spot for points on New Year's Day.
Chelsea are fat and happy coming off an easy win despite not being 100 percent, and I think Forest can limit the opportunities they had against Bournemouth. The hope is that Morgan Gibbs-White is healthy enough to start, as Jesse Lingard went off injured last match. I'll ride double chance at +115.
EPL Best Bets for Leicester City at Liverpool, Everton at Manchester City and Leeds United at Newcastle
Parlay: Liverpool to beat Leicester -340, Man City to beat Everton -700, Newcastle to beat Leeds -215 = +116 odds
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Let's play a game. Who is going to lose between Liverpool, Manchester City and Newcastle? My money is Liverpool because they did something similar against Leicester City about a year ago. However, they're at home and should be feeling good about themselves after a recent win, while the Foxes are still without James Maddison and don't have a ton of depth.
I feel a bit more comfortable with Man City versus Everton and Newcastle against Leeds. Man City don't need an explanation, while Leeds away from home can't be trusted, and Newcastle are playing like a top-four side.
This parlay is definitely a trick and probably shouldn't be made, but it's the end of the year, so we can have some fun with it.
EPL Betting Picks Matchday 18
- Fulham to beat Southampton +100
- Both teams to score no draw between Tottenham and Aston Villa +150
- Nottingham Forest double chance against Chelsea +115
- Parlay: Liverpool to beat Leicester -340, Man City to beat Everton -700, Newcastle to beat Leeds -215 = +116 odds
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
Visit RotoWire all season for exclusive sports betting picks and our weekly Kits & Wagers betting show. Remember that betting apps vary in terms of odds, so we have an easy-to-use odds page that allows you to shop for the best lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and PointsBet. You can also use the WynnBET promo code for $100 in free bets.