This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Men's main draw play at the Italian Open begins Wednesday, May 10, while the women threw a couple of first-round matches in Tuesday along with the last round of qualifying play. This will be the final ATP Masters 1000 and WTA 1000 tournament of the clay-court season, leading right into the clay court Grand Slam at the French Open.
This tournament functionally feels like a Grand Slam, as both the men and women will be playing a grueling seven-round schedule on the clay courts of Rome. The 32 seeds in both draws get byes directly into the second round, though, so the Italian Open draws are 96 players each rather than the 128 we see at Grand Slams. Additionally, all matches will be best-of-three sets, which is par for the course in the WTA game but different from the best-of-five format in men's Grand Slams.
This could finally be our chance to witness Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic face off in 2023, as the latter is back from an elbow injury while the former remains healthy coming off his Madrid Open title. Jannik Sinner (illness) is also set to return after missing Madrid, but he won't be joined by clay-court GOAT Rafael Nadal, who remains sidelined by a hip injury. Other sidelined notables include Matteo Berrettini (oblique), Nick Kyrgios (knee), Marin Cilic (knee), Pablo Carreno Busta (elbow) and Jenson Brooksby (wrist). In the women's draw, Ons Jabeur (calf) will make her return after missing Madrid. Garbine Muguruza (personal) remains out, and Emma Raducanu will be sidelined for an extended period after undergoing surgeries on both wrists.
While Italian Open title odds have yet to be revealed on major mobile sportsbooks such as DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook, you will be able to wager on individual matches, and it's only a matter of time until Italian Open futures become available as well. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for various sportsbooks, including those that recently launched in Massachusetts.
Italian Open Picks: Men's Tournament
The Favorite
Carlos Alcaraz - Alcaraz is seeded No. 2 here, but he should be viewed as the favorite over Djokovic given the uncertainty over the health of the top seed's elbow. The Spaniard, who recently turned 20 years old, has a sparkling 29-2 record in 2023, including 19-1 on clay.
In the Mix
Novak Djokovic - There's Alcaraz and Djokovic, and then there's everyone else. Djokovic will be the clear favorite in any match he plays until a possible final against Alcaraz, but even if Djokovic's elbow is healthy, he could face a few obstacles along the way. Stan Wawrinka has aged less gracefully than Djokovic, but he has notched a few massive clay-court wins against the Serb over the years and could get a shot at another one in the third round, while Holger Rune -- who beat Djokovic at the Paris Masters in November -- is his chalk opponent in the quarterfinals. We've seen the 22-time Grand Slam champion overcome much tougher obstacles, though.
Jannik Sinner - If anyone's capable of beating Djokovic and Alcaraz back-to-back right now, it's Sinner. While Sinner's still searching for his first win over Djokovic, he was up two sets to love against him at Wimbledon last year, and the Italian's one of two players to defeat Alcaraz in 2023. With the partisan Italian crowd in his corner, the No. 8 seed will look to channel his inner gladiator here in Rome for his first Masters 1000 title.
Sleepers
Andrey Rublev - Rublev's 10-2 on clay this year, including a breakthrough Masters 1000 title in Monte Carlo. He didn't have to face any player ranked above him en route to that title, and if the draw opens up again for the sixth-seeded Russian, he's proven he has what it takes to win on this surface. Rublev would face fellow Russian Daniil Medvedev in the quarterfinals if chalk holds up in their section.
Holger Rune - Like Alcaraz, Rune recently turned 20 years old. He's substantially less accomplished than the Spanish superstar, but Rune's off to a tremendous start in his own right, as he won a hard-court Masters 1000 title in Paris last year and reached the final in Monte Carlo on clay in April. Rune can beat anyone when he's on his game, but his body has let him down a few times in longer matches this year. The expected rainy conditions in Rome will likely keep things cool, which should help from a physical standpoint for Rune, who is 8-2 on clay in 2023.
Lorenzo Musetti - Like Sinner, the Italian Musetti will have the crowd in his corner. He beat Djokovic in Monte Carlo, so Musetti's capable of hanging with anybody on his favorite clay surface. The No. 18 seed has to like his chances in a potential third-round matchup with No. 12 seed Frances Tiafoe, who prefers faster surfaces. After that, Musetti could get a chance to upset No. 5 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Round of 16.
Fade
Stefanos Tsitsipas - We already know that No. 3 seed Daniil Medvedev struggles on clay and No. 4 seed Casper Ruud has underperformed on all surfaces in 2023, but another player who will likely struggle to make much noise in Rome is the fifth-seeded Tsitsipas, even though he's normally among the cream of the crop on clay. He lost to Jan-Lennard Struff in Madrid and will have to navigate a tough draw here. Even if Tsitsipas survives potential upset bids from Italians Lorenzo Sonego and Musetti, his reward would be a likely quarterfinal encounter with Alcaraz, who has won all four of their previous meetings.
Italian Open Picks: Women's Tournament
The Favorite
Iga Swiatek - Swiatek lost to Aryna Sabalenka in the final of Madrid, but Rome normally plays much slower than Madrid, which should play in Swiatek's favor should these two meet in the final for a third consecutive clay-court tournament. There's a massive gap right now on clay between Swiatek/Sabalenka and the field. Considering the loss to Sabalenka on Saturday was Swiatek's second clay-court defeat since the start of 2022, the world No. 1 remains the clear favorite to bounce back and claim the title in Rome.
In the Mix
Aryna Sabalenka - Sabalenka avenged her loss in the Stuttgart final to Swiatek by triumphing in Madrid. Prior to 2023, Sabalenka fared worse on clay compared to faster surfaces, but she's 9-1 on clay in 2023, and 29-4 overall this year. Sabalenka's closer to Swiatek than she is to the rest of the field, and if she can somehow win this tournament too, the world No. 2 would have to be viewed as at least a co-favorite for the French Open. One step at a time, though.
Barbora Krejcikova - Krejcikova has beaten both Sabalenka and Swiatek this year, plus she has a French Open title under her belt. If anyone's capable of preventing another clay-court final between the top two players in the world, it's Krejcikova. The No. 10 seed could face Swiatek in the semis and Sabalenka in the final, but Krejcikova may have to navigate the likes of Jelena Ostapenko, Daria Kasatkina and Ons Jabeur first.
Sleepers
Jessica Pegula - Pegula's unlikely to win the title, but Swiatek and Sabalenka have been hogging all the titles recently anyway, and at least Pegula's a near lock to make the second week. The world No. 3 is 25-8 in 2023 and has made the quarterfinals or better in all but one tournament this year. For all her deep runs over the past couple years, Pegula has just one WTA 1000 title, which she won in Guadalajara last year.
Martina Trevisan - Trevisan's a tough out on clay, and she'll have the crowd in her corner to boot. The Italian doesn't have much power, but her tricky game carried her to the semifinals of the French Open last year. She made a nice run in Madrid, falling 6-3 in the third to Pegula in the Round of 16, and Trevisan's style should work even better in the slower conditions in Rome. The No. 18 seed landed in the best part of the draw for a potential deep run, as the top seed in her quarter is No. 4 Ons Jabeur, who looks much more beatable than Swiatek, Sabalenka, or even Pegula.
Anastasia Potapova - Seeded No. 23 here, Potapova could orchestrate a deep run if she can beat some familiar foes. The third round will likely offer the 22-year-old Russian a chance at revenge against 11th-seeded countrywoman Veronika Kudermetova, who just outlasted Potapova 6-7 (3), 7-5, 6-3 in Madrid. Should Potapova pull that one out, her likely fourth-round opponent would be Coco Gauff, whom Potapova has defeated twice in the last two months. After that, she could face Pegula, whom Potapova pushed to 7-5 in the third and 7-6 in the third at Indian Wells and Miami, respectively.
Anna Kalinskaya - Kalinskaya has notched some quality wins on clay recently and has a chance to add to that list here. She beat Victoria Azarenka in Charleston and knocked off childhood friend Elena Rybakina in Madrid, avenging a narrow hard-court loss to Rybakina in Miami. Kalinskaya would have to like her chances in another potential matchup against Rybakina in the third round. The 57th-ranked Russian will first have to beat Dayana Yastremska and Elise Mertens, neither of whom has played particularly well of late.
Fade
Ons Jabeur - Jabeur's game works well on clay, as evidenced by her 2022 WTA 1000 title in Madrid, but she's in a tough spot here coming off the latest in a string of injuries. The calf injury that prevented Jabeur from defending her Madrid title was preceded by a back injury and knee surgery, as the No. 4 seed has been limited to 16 matches in 2023. After a first-round bye, Jabeur will have little time to shake off the rust, as a possible second-round opponent for her is Paula Badosa, who was ranked No. 2 in the world just over a year ago.
Picks to Win the Italian Open
The men's and women's draws are mirror images in some ways, as both have one dominant player per half expected to meet in the final while the rest of the draw is wide open. Knocking out just one of Alcaraz, Djokovic, Swiatek or Sabalenka requires a Herculean effort. Beating both in the same tournament looks nearly impossible at the moment.
So, which of the top two contenders in each draw will get the job done this time? Alcaraz and Swiatek are the best bets to do so. The slower conditions should help Swiatek in a possible rematch with Sabalenka, and against any other big hitters who sometimes give her trouble on faster surfaces. Alcaraz's all-around game thrives in any conditions, while Djokovic will be making sure to keep the tank close to full for the French Open later in May.
