This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Both women's semifinals at the US Open are scheduled to be played Thursday night. All four players remaining in the draw have reached a Grand Slam final, but only one has lifted a singles championship trophy before. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets.
US Open Odds: Gauff vs. Muchova
This is a rematch of the Aug. 20 Western and Southern Open final, which Gauff won 6-3, 6-4. Between that tournament and this one, the 19-year-old American has compiled a nine-match winning streak, while the loss to Gauff is Muchova's only loss in her last 10 matches. Gauff has a four-spot rankings edge at No. 6, and both have had easier than expected paths to this point. Gauff's highest-seeded opponent was No. 20 seed Jelena Ostapenko, against whom Gauff lost just two games in the quarterfinals. Muchova has dropped only one set in this tournament, but her only seeded opponent was No. 30 Sorana Cirstea, whom she limited to three games in the quarterfinals. Both players are in terrific form heading into their second head-to-head meeting, but with the crowd in Gauff's corner and a win over Muchova fresh in her memory, this is the American's match to lose.
US Open Prediction: Gauff def. Muchova 6-4, 6-7, 6-3
US Open Odds: Sabalenka vs. Keys
Sabalenka will be the deserving new world No. 1 after this tournament ends no matter what she does here, and she's reached that pinnacle by getting to the semifinals of all four majors in 2023. After winning this year's Australian Open, Sabalenka lost to the craftier Muchova and Ons Jabeur in the semis of the French Open and Wimbledon, respectively. Unfortunately for Keys, she'll face the unenviable task of trying to beat the big-hitting Sabalenka at her own game, which nobody has done successfully in a Grand Slam this year. Keys is coming off consecutive straight-sets wins over top-10 seeds Jessica Pegula and Marketa Vondrousova, while Sabalenka has dominated an easier draw, dropping five games or fewer in every match. Sabalenka leads their head-to-head 2-1. The Belarusian won their only hard-court encounter five years ago, and Sabalenka handled Keys 6-2, 6-4 in the quarterfinals of Wimbledon this year.
US Open Prediction: Sabalenka def. Keys 7-5, 7-6