This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The second round of the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells continues Saturday, offering the first look at certain seeds, who will take the court after first-round byes against opponents who won their first-round matches. A pair of Frenchmen separated by three letters and a generation could produce mixed results in two of Thursday's most intriguing matchups, while past-their-prime veterans on both the men's and women's sides will try to rely on experience against less accomplished opponents. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live, like North Carolina, where you can take advantage of exclusive betting promos.
All matches at the BNP Paribas Open are best of three sets, which is the case for all ATP Masters 1000 and WTA 1000 level tournaments. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Indian Wells Picks: Upset Alert
Fabio Fognini (+245) vs. Sebastian Baez
Fognini's no spring chicken at age 36, but the Italian still has masterful shotmaking abilities, and he can stay on the front foot and hug the baseline against Baez, who is much more comfortable on clay. The 5-foot-7 Baez is adept at chasing balls down and extending rallies, but his lack of offense has led to a 17-33 career hard-court record, including 2-3 in 2024, nowhere near his respective 56-27 and 14-2 marks on clay. With Baez unable to consistently move Fognini around, the Italian's ability to dictate play and hide his own defensive deficiencies give Fognini a nice opportunity to pull off the upset against a player ranked 89 spots above him.
Lesia Tsurenko (+180) vs. Emma Navarro
Navarro's a player on the rise and currently holds a career high ranking of No. 23, but the 22-year-old New York native is unproven in big tournaments. She's just 7-10 in WTA 1000 or Grand Slam main-draw matches in her career, while the 34-year-old Tsurenko is a former US Open quarterfinalist. Both players reached the third round of the Australian Open this year and are separated by 14 spots in the rankings, so this feels more like a toss-up than a match with a clear favorite.
Honorable Mention
Patrick Kypson (+400) vs. Ugo Humbert
Indian Wells Odds: Lock It In
Holger Rune (-195) vs. Milos Raonic
Raonic benefited from a change in first-round opponent, as he faced 101st-ranked Sumit Nagal after Rafael Nadal pulled out of the draw. The big-serving Canadian picked up his third win of the year in the first round, but Raonic has already lost two matches via retirement in 2024 and doesn't seem to have much high-level tennis left in his 33-year-old body after numerous injuries. Rune's much closer to the beginning than the end at age 20, and the world No. 7 is simply the far better player at this stage. Raonic has the better serve, but Rune should control play once they get into rallies.
Elina Svitolina (-210) vs. Katerina Siniakova
Svitolina has one of the highest floors on the WTA Tour, rarely losing to players she should beat. Siniakova certainly falls into that category, as she's just 9-7 in 2024 and is ranked No. 41. The 17th-ranked Svitolina has lost before the third round in only one of her last 24 Grand Slam appearances, while Siniakova has been past the third round only once in a Grand Slam career that started in 2014, showcasing the vast gap between these players in singles. While Siniakova's an excellent doubles player, Svitolina has the substantial edge in singles, and Svitolina has won all three of their previous encounters to boot.
Honorable Mention
Coco Gauff (-750) vs. Clara Burel
Indian Wells Predictions: Value Bets
Hubert Hurkacz (-165) vs. Gael Monfils
Monfils isn't an easy draw, but his best days are behind him at age 37. The energetic veteran is just 6-6 in 2024, with only one of those wins coming against a player ranked higher than 48th. Meanwhile, the 27-year-old Hurkacz is playing his best tennis. The Pole currently boasts a career high ranking of No. 8 courtesy of a Masters 1000 win in Shanghai in October followed by quarterfinal results at the Paris Masters 1000 and Australian Open, all on hard courts. Monfils' ranking has slipped to No. 54, and Hurkacz hasn't lost to a player ranked outside the top 30 in 2024.
Arthur Fils (+120) vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
After a breakout year in 2023, Davidovich Fokina is off to a slow start in 2024, with a 4-5 record over his last nine matches. Getting back on track won't be easy for the Spaniard against a high-powered opponent in Fils, who is coming off a 7-6 (5), 6-2 win over Nuno Borges. Davidovich Fokina won a pair of Grand Slam encounters between these two last year, but Fils won their only hard-court meeting in straight sets in Shanghai. That most recent meeting is part of an extended slump for Davidovich Fokina that has seen him go 9-11 over his last 20 matches.
Honorable Mention
Sebastian Korda (-150) vs. Roman Safiullin
