This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The fourth round of the French Open begins Sunday as we head into the second week. A title favorite could face a stiffer fourth-round test than the odds suggest, while a quick glance at the head-to-head in another matchup doesn't tell the whole story, and a battle between players with similar game styles is likely to wind up in the higher-ranked player's favor.
All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the French Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous clay court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
French Open Picks: Upset Alert
Anastasia Potapova (+2000) vs. Iga Swiatek
Swiatek should absolutely be favored in this match, but these odds are far too extreme, making Potapova a nice value. While Swiatek has been nearly unbeatable on clay and is going for her fourth French Open title in five years, she has shown some vulnerability at this year's event, having to stave off a match point in the second round against Naomi Osaka. The world No. 1 has the most trouble with big hitters like Osaka and Elena Rybakina (4-2 career head-to-head vs. Swiatek), and while Potapova doesn't serve nearly as well as those two, she can replicate their style off the ground and try to push Iga around. The 23-year-old Russian has four top-10 wins since last year's Miami Open, including two on clay. If Potapova can keep it competitive, the crowd could migrate into her corner considering Swiatek chastised fans at Court Philippe-Chatrier for being too loud between points after beating Osaka.
Honorable Mention
Matteo Arnaldi (+380) vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas
French Open Odds: Lock It In
Marketa Vondrousova (-290) vs. Olga Danilovic
Danilovic has orchestrated this Cinderella run by capitalizing on a contrast in styles against a pair of big hitters in Danielle Collins and Donna Vekic, outlasting Collins 6-4 in the third and Vekic in a third-set tiebreak. The 125th-ranked qualifier will face a different test against the sixth-ranked Vondrousova, who can counter Danilovic's tricky lefty game with plenty of lefty spins and change-ups of her own. Vondrousova can execute the same game plan much better, and the Czech star is unlikely to let the pressure get to her considering she reached the final here in 2019 and won Wimbledon last year.
Carlos Alcaraz (-650) vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime
Alcaraz has assuaged lingering concerns over the forearm injury that cost him the majority of the clay court season, as his forehand and serve speeds have both been in line with Alcaraz's customary numbers, while his shot-making, court coverage and point construction have all been stellar as usual. He lost focus for a bit in his second-round match against Jesper De Jong and dropped a set, but Alcaraz was all business in a straight-set third-round win against a dangerous opponent in Sebastian Korda. Alcaraz should have little trouble grabbing the edge in neutral rallies against Auger-Aliassime, either by exploiting FAA's vulnerable backhand or by going big to the forehand corner to capitalize on Auger-Aliassime shading to his weaker wing. FAA's big serve has given Alcaraz trouble on faster surfaces, and the Canadian actually won their first three encounters, but Alcaraz has won both of their meetings since the start of 2023 in straight sets, and the scales should tilt even further in the Spaniard's favor in their first clay-court matchup.
Honorable Mention
Coco Gauff (-750) vs. Elisabetta Cocciaretto
French Open Predictions: Value Bets
Clara Tauson (+130) vs. Ons Jabeur
Tauson was viewed as a rising teenage star but injuries disrupted her ascent as she plateaued for a while. At age 21, the Dane finally seems to have regained her top form, as she's knocked off two Grand Slam champions en route to her first major Round of 16. Having already beaten No. 9 seed Jelena Ostapenko and Sofia Kenin, Tauson won't be intimidated by facing No. 8 seed and three-time Grand Slam finalist Jabeur. This will be an interesting contrast in styles, with Tauson looking to use her power against Jabeur's finesse. There doesn't seem to be much daylight between these players at the moment, which makes the underdog Tauson the better value bet.
Honorable Mention
Alex de Minaur (+150) vs. Daniil Medvedev
