This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Both the men and women will play second-round matches at the Miami Open on Friday, so seeded players will be making their tournament debuts after getting first-round byes. A pair of highly ranked Americans could be in trouble despite being substantial favorites, while a promising youngster on the men's side will look to continue his ascent by taking out a vulnerable seeded opponent.
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All matches at the Miami Open are best of three sets, which is the case for all ATP Masters 1000 and WTA 1000 level tournaments. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Miami Open Picks: Upset Alert
Thiago Seyboth Wild (+400) vs. Taylor Fritz
Seyboth Wild has played his best tennis on the biggest stages this year, as he took fifth-ranked Andrey Rublev to a fifth-set tiebreak at the the Australian Open and defeated 15th-ranked Karen Khachanov at Indian Wells. The 24-year-old Brazilian was unlucky not to get into the main draw directly here, as he was the No. 1 seed in qualifying, but that snub could prove to be a blessing in disguise, as Seyboth Wild has had ample opportunity to get used to the court conditions and will be riding high after winning two qualifying matches and his first round, all without dropping a set. Fritz will be playing his first match since blowing a match point in an Indian Wells loss to Holger Rune, and the 12th-seeded American will need to adjust quickly to conditions in which he typically hasn't found significant success -- Fritz is just 9-7 in main-draw matches at the Miami Open.
Lin Zhu (+310) vs. Jessica Pegula
Pegula should be on upset alert in every match she plays until further notice. She's just 3-3 since the start of the Australian Open, with all three losses coming to players outside the top 30 and only one top-100 win over that span. The American certainly isn't playing up to her No. 5 ranking, so a clash with the 63rd-ranked Zhu is unlikely to be a walk in the park, even though Zhu came into this tournament on a five-match losing streak. Zhu got back on track with a 6-2, 6-4 first-round win over Marie Bouzkova, and she won't be intimidated against a top-10 opponent, as Zhu notched two top-10 wins last year, including one over Maria Sakkari at the 2023 Australian Open.
Honorable Mention
Elina Avanesyan (+220) vs. Ons Jabeur
Miami Open Odds: Lock It In
Andrey Rublev (-360) vs. Tomas Machac
Rublev lost to the red-hot Jiri Lehecka at Indian Wells, but the sixth-ranked Russian still has a rock-solid 15-5 record in 2024. Machac improved to 7-5 with his first-round win over 16-year-old Darwin Blanch, but that record includes a 1-4 mark against top-25 opponents. Machac's 0-7 against top-10 players in his career, so he's unlikely to follow in his Czech compatriot Lehecka's footsteps against Rublev.
Marta Kostyuk (-400) vs. Arantxa Rus
Kostyuk has performed like a top-10 player so far in 2024, reaching the Australian Open quarterfinals and Indian Wells semifinals en route to a 15-6 overall record. The 21-year-old Ukrainian is seeded 29th, but she's likely to keep climbing the rankings and shouldn't have much trouble against the 57th-ranked Rus. Prior to a first-round win over Sara Sorribes Tormo, which dropped Sorribes Tormo's season record to 2-8, Rus had lost five consecutive matches
Honorable Mention
Frances Tiafoe (-215) vs. Christopher O'Connell
Miami Open Predictions: Value Bets
Juncheng Shang (+120) vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Shang just got through a 7-6 (5), 4-6, 7-6 (5) first-round thriller against Miomir Kecmanovic, so the Chinese teenager is battle-tested heading into this clash with the slumping Davidovich Fokina. That was the fifth top-50 win of the year for Shang, whose No. 124 ranking doesn't do him justice. Meanwhile, Davidovich Fokina is just 4-6 in his last 10 matches, as the enigmatic Spaniard seems to have gotten into his own head lately. Davidovich Fokina has a solid all-court game but prefers clay, as his career hard-court record is still under .500.
Alexander Bublik (-135) vs. Matteo Arnaldi
Bublik has had some attitude and focus problems in the past, but the big server has had fewer lapses lately and is playing the best tennis of his career. He boasts a career-high No. 18 ranking, and while Bublik hasn't been shy about his disdain for slow courts, the reasonably fast hard courts at Miami should be more his speed. Arnaldi's coming off an impressive first-round performance in a 6-3, 6-4 win over Arthur Fils, but the 23-year-old Italian hasn't been able to string together consecutive wins since his first two matches of 2024 in Brisbane, while Bublik has a strong 14-6 record this year.
Honorable Mention
Dominik Koepfer (-160) vs. Sebastian Baez
