This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Third-round action begins Sunday from the hard courts of Indian Wells. A favored American faces a tricky matchup against a former champion here, while a player coming off the biggest win of his career will look to keep the good times rolling, and we'll be treated to a rematch of a recent WTA 1000 final.
All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men's and women's singles matches at Indian Wells are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Indian Wells Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Cameron Norrie (+265) vs. Tommy Paul
Norrie has been a strong performer at this tournament throughout his career, having won Indian Wells in 2021 and posted a 15-5 record here overall. His latest Indian Wells victory was an impressive one, as the British veteran outlasted No. 23 seed Jiri Lehecka 3-6, 6-4, 7-5 in the second round. Paul's currently ranked No. 11 and has an 11-3 record in 2025, so despite being less than two years younger at age 27, he seems much closer to his prime than Norrie, who has dropped to 77th after being ranked in the top 15 continuously from October 2021 to August 2023. Still, Norrie isn't too far removed from that peak and has a 3-1 head-to-head edge over the American, including a Norrie win at Indian Wells during his title run in 2021.
Lulu Sun (+425) vs. Qinwen Zheng
Sun tends to redline her game and take a lot of chances, which can lead to prolonged losing streaks but also some deep runs, such as her Wimbledon quarterfinal result last July and subsequent August hard-court WTA 500 final in Monterrey. She looks to be in excellent rhythm this week, having just knocked off ascending youngster Linda Noskova 6-1, 6-4 in the second round. Zheng finally got her first top-100 win of 2025 over Victoria Azarenka in the second round, but with a 2-3 record this year, the No. 8 seed still looks quite vulnerable for a top-10 player.
Honorable Mention
Alex Michelsen (+200) vs. Daniil Medvedev
Indian Wells Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Frances Tiafoe (-200) vs. Yosuke Watanuki
Watanuki benefited from Tomas Machac feeling under the weather to win his second-round match via retirement after dropping the first set, but without that lucky break, the 349th-ranked qualifier likely still wouldn't have a third-round appearance at a Masters 1000 event or Grand Slam in his career. Tiafoe plays his best tennis on North American hard courts where he can feed off the crowd's energy, and the 16th-seeded American has already faced Watanuki before, beating the 26-year-old from Japan at the Miami Open in 2023.
Mirra Andreeva (-225) vs. Clara Tauson
This is a rematch of the Dubai WTA 1000 final from two weeks ago, which Andreeva won 7-6 (1), 6-1 to claim what is likely the first of many WTA 1000 titles for the 17-year-old prodigy. The 22-year-old Tauson is also an ascending young player, but Andreeva's superior variety should help the teenager capitalize on Tauson's sometimes suspect movement, while the relatively slow hard-court conditions here will make it difficult for Tauson to overpower her opponent. There's little reason for this lower-stakes rematch to unfold significantly differently from their first meeting.
Honorable Mention
Karolina Muchova (-300) vs. Katerina Siniakova
Indian Wells Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Arthur Fils (-120) vs. Lorenzo Musetti
While this hard court plays slower than most, it's still a hard court. Fils has a .573 win rate on this surface and a high-power game that fits it well, while the craftier Musetti much prefers clay and grass, with a .472 hard-court win rate compared to marks north of .620 on the other two main surfaces. Musetti's five-spot edge in the rankings is due to his success on other surfaces, so Fils should be comfortably favored in their first hard-court encounter as he looks to avenge a clay-court loss to the 16th-ranked Italian last year.
Tallon Griekspoor (-165) vs. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Griekspoor finally got over the hump in the second round after previously being 0-18 against top-five players despite numerous close calls, overcoming some late nerves to defeat No. 1 seed Alexander Zverev 4-6, 7-6 (5), 7-6 (4). The 43rd-ranked Dutchman notched a pair of top-20 wins in Dubai prior to this tournament and is 5-1 in his last six matches, so he's riding a nice wave of confidence into this matchup against the 30th-ranked Mpetshi Perricard. While the 6-foot-8 Frenchman has the clear edge on serve, Griekspoor's superior all-around game should help him back up the win over Zverev with another victory in the third round.
Honorable Mention
Alexei Popyrin (+110) vs. Marcos Giron
