This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Competitors for the women's French Open championship match were decided Thursday, as Karolina Muchova not only tightened up her service game but showed determination through adversity, as she came back from a 5-2 deficit in the deciding set to book her first spot in a major final. The story wasn't as bright for our second big underdog, as Beatriz Haddad Maia fell to Iga Swiatek in straight sets despite a hard-fought tiebreak in the second frame. We will take a look at the men's semifinal action for Friday, including one competitor looking to complete a comeback following a devastating result on these grounds last year, and another trying to hold his place as the best player in the world. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but prospective bettors should feel free to search for the best lines available for these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites.
As a reminder, the men play best-of-five-set matches at Grand Slams, while women's matches are best of three just like the remainder of the WTA Tour schedule. As we've now reached the semifinal round, match analysis will be based almost exclusively on performance in previous rounds of this tournament, with nods to head-to-head records between competitors where appropriate.
French Open Odds: Alcaraz vs. Djokovic
Carlos Alcaraz (-210) vs. Novak Djokovic (+175)
It almost seems like fate that we ended up here, as the former long-reigning world No. 1 will take on the current world No. 1 for a chance to lift the trophy at Roland Garros. Joker's line scores in this tournament can be a bit deceiving, as he has yet to be on the brink of elimination, but he had to work extremely hard in straight-set wins against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Marton Fucsovics. The power tennis of Karen Khachanov was enough to award him the opening set in Round 4, but Djokovic went into lockdown mode thereafter, taking control in a pivotal third set in which he dropped just one point on serve (his only unforced error) while hitting 19 winners. Alcaraz has developed a habit of making some of the best in the world look several levels below him, as he trounced both world No. 18 Lorenzo Musetti and world No. 5 Stefanos Tsitsipas in straight sets, losing just 16 games combined over six frames.
We would be remiss to not point out that Alcaraz defeated Djokovic in their only meeting, winning a tough three-setter that included two tiebreaks when the two met in Rome last year. A perceived lack of match fitness and a slight leg injury during the Serbian's match with Fucsovics may have some questioning if he is ready to go five sets with a high-octane shotmaker. I could make this simple from a betting perspective and say that you are unlikely to get a player of Djokovic's caliber at this price very often, but we can dig a bit deeper and note that Alcaraz has let his unforced error count rapidly escalate at times in Paris. This occurred during his second set against Taro Daniel (12 unforced errors) and most recently in his fourth set against Tsitsipas (13 unforced errors). The Spanish player has become a master of the drop shot, but I expect Djokovic's world-class court coverage to frustrate that strategy. It would hardly be surprising if another fast start catches Djokovic off his guard, but if his body can hold up, I expect the man who can keep his nerve and play cleaner tennis will walk away victorious.
French Open Prediction: Djokovic defeats Alcaraz 4-6, 6-4, 7-6, 3-6, 6-3
French Open Odds: Ruud vs. Zverev
Casper Ruud (-110) vs. Alexander Zverev (-105)
Zverev's semifinal berth at the French Open is part of a long road back to being one of the best in the world, as he began the 2023 season losing to players hovering around the top 100 while recovering from a devastating ankle injury he suffered at last year's French Open semifinal against Rafael Nadal. The world No. 27 will look to put those ghosts behind him completely in his match with Ruud, against whom he holds a 2-1 record (all on hard courts). The German player has lost just two sets in this tournament but was taken to tiebreaks on four different occasions against Lloyd Harris and Frances Tiafoe. Meanwhile, Ruud has played his usual brand of smart, consistent tennis, dropping three sets en route to the semifinals, but losing just 12 games across four sets in his quarterfinal match against Holger Rune.
When dealing with players of this caliber, often a match can turn on one or two specific details. For me, the first of these is the tendency for Zverev to lose control of his serve. We saw this most recently in the second set of his semifinal match with Tomas Martin Etcheverry, in which he got his first serve in at just a 57 percent clip. This led to the 27-year-old winning just 58 percent of points on serve. By contrast, Ruud was at the top of his game throughout his match with Rune, committing a total of just 29 unforced errors, while winning 52 percent of his second-serve return points. We saw Ruud expertly deal with the big serve of Nicolas Jarry to make it past the fourth round in straight sets, so it seems unlikely that Zverev's power will be able to bail him out if his serve begins to abandon him. I expect Ruud to have to weather a few storms here, but ultimately, the Norwegian player should come out on top.
French Open Prediction: Ruud def. Zverev 6-3, 6-4, 3-6, 6-4
