This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
It was a disappointing end to what was shaping up to be a great match at the French Open on Friday, as World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz essentially conceded the match after cramping at the beginning of the third frame, losing the final two sets by a score of 6-1,6-1. Elsewhere, Casper Ruud made things routine against World no. 27 Alexander Zverev, dispatching the German player in straight sets for the right to face Novak Djokovic in the final round on Sunday. The women's champion will be decided Saturday, with a likely competitor set to face a player who bested the top talent on the WTA Tour in their only meeting. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but prospective bettors should feel free to search for the best lines available for these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites.
As a reminder, the men play best-of-five-set matches at Grand Slams, while women's matches are best of three just like the remainder of the WTA Tour schedule. As we've now reached the final round, match analysis will be based almost exclusively on performance in previous rounds of this tournament, with nods to head-to-head records between competitors where appropriate.
French Open Odds: Swiatek vs. Muchova
Iga Swiatek (-900) vs. Karolina Muchova (+600)
It may seem as though Muchova is an unlikely candidate to meet Swiatek in a major final, but a spate of recent injuries has prevented the Czech player from living up to her potential. When Muchova is at her best she has proven she can beat anyone in the world, as evidenced by a 5-0 record against top-10 players and a win over Swiatek on clay in 2019. This may sound like Muchova is a sure value bet at this price, but we must mention that she experienced cramping in her final set against Aryna Sabalenka. While this makes her comeback down 5-2 in that decider even more impressive, it also calls into question how much of a toll her 12 hours on court has taken.
A compromised opponent in any sense of the word likely will come up short against Swiatek. This is particularly true when it comes to the Polish player's return game, as Swiatek has converted an astonishing 74 percent of her break point chances in Paris, while Muchova has broken serve at a 46 percent clip. When we consider that Muchova has been broken 18 times in her six rounds of play, it begins to look like she will be trying to catch up more often than not. Muchova finished her semifinal match with an impressive plus-11 ratio of winners to unforced errors, but Swiatek is an expert at turning potential winning shots into neutral balls and forcing Muchova to work that much harder could cause those leg cramps to reemerge. I expect at least one of these sets to be competitive, but all signs point to Swiatek remaining the final boss of women's tennis, as she seems primed to notch her third French Open title in the last four years.
French Open Prediction: Swiatek def. Muchova 7-5, 6-2
