This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Both BNP Paribas Open women's semifinals will be played Friday from the hard courts of Indian Wells, with the action starting at 4:00 p.m. local time in California, which is 7:00 p.m. EDT. There's a strong argument to be made that the four semifinalists have been the four best players on the WTA Tour this season, as three of them reached the semifinals or better at the Australian Open, and the fourth is coming off a WTA 1000 title and currently has a 10-match winning streak going.
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All women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities in Friday's women's semifinal matches.
Indian Wells Odds: Swiatek vs. Andreeva
Iga Swiatek (-185) vs. Mirra Andreeva (+140)
Swiatek will be looking to avenge Andreeva's 6-3, 6-3 win in the quarterfinals of Dubai less than a month ago, where Andreeva went on to win her first WTA 1000 title. The conditions here are more favorable for Swiatek, as the hard courts at Indian Wells play slower than the ones in Dubai, and the world No. 2 thrives in slow conditions. Getting off to a strong start will be imperative for Swiatek, who excels at playing with the lead but is 4-7 in the last 11 matches in which she has lost the first set. She has been steamrolling the competition here, dropping just 12 games through four straight-sets wins.
Andreeva's creative game style is also well-suited for slow conditions, and the 17-year-old Russian is brimming with confidence. She hasn't lost a set at this tournament and is riding a 10-match winning streak dating back to Dubai. It's easy to forget Swiatek's still only 23 years old since she has already won five Grand Slams and spent 125 weeks at No. 1, so this could be one of the sport's top rivalries for the next decade-plus. Mirra has played Iga tough so far, as Swiatek won their first meeting 7-5 in the third in August of 2024 before Andreeva answered with a win of her own in February. Now, it could be Swiatek's turn to push back at a venue where the Pole has won 20 of her last 21 matches.
Indian Wells Women's Semifinal Prediction: Swiatek def. Andreeva 6-3, 7-6
Indian Wells Odds: Sabalenka vs. Keys
Aryna Sabalenka (-175) vs. Madison Keys (+140)
Keys is playing the best tennis of her life in 2025 and comes into this match rocking a 16-match winning streak. Her most notable win in that stretch was the 6-3, 2-6, 7-5 triumph over Sabalenka in the final of the Australian Open, where Keys won her first Grand Slam title and denied the top-ranked Belarusian's bid for a fourth major title. The 30-year-old American came into this tournament with a 10-11 career record at Indian Wells, but Keys hasn't been bothered by the conditions here this year, picking up where she left off in her first tournament since that Australian Open title. Keys is one of the few women who can match Sabalenka's power, so don't expect either player to push their opponent around.
Sabalenka's biggest improvement over the past few years -- apart from solving the yips on her serve -- has been the addition of variety to her game. She's no longer just a big basher of the ball, having incorporated timely slices and dropshots into her arsenal. Look for Sabalenka to rely on that variety to disrupt Keys' rhythm in this match. Conditions have been windy throughout this tournament, so de-risking your shots by taking some pace off the ball at times hasn't been a bad idea. Just like Swiatek, Sabalenka's a fierce competitor with an excellent coaching staff that will be ready with adjustments for this rematch. Sabalenka still leads the head-to-head over Keys 4-2 overall, and the pressure on the favored Sabalenka won't be nearly as great here as it was when she was going for the first WTA Australian Open threepeat since Martina Hingis in 1997-99.
Indian Wells Women's Semifinal Prediction: Sabalenka def. Keys 3-6, 6-4, 6-4
