2025 U.S. Open: Novak Djokovic Faces Third-Round Test Friday
Third-round play begins Friday at the U.S. Open from the hard courts of the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in New York. One of the biggest names in the game could face a surprisingly stiff challenge barring an improvement in form, while a couple of former Grand Slam champions are looking to avenge major losses Friday.
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All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the U.S. Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
U.S. Open Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Cameron Norrie (+850) vs. Novak Djokovic
Djokovic has made many a doubter look silly over the years, but Father Time is undefeated, and the 38-year-old Serb is clearly far from fully fit physically in his first tournament since he limped out of his Wimbledon semifinal loss to Jannik Sinner with a groin injury. Playing through injury hasn't stopped Djokovic from winning many big titles in the past, but he's been cutting it a little too close for comfort against inferior competition in the early stages here, having found himself at a set all and down a break in the third against 145th-ranked Zachary Svajda in the second round. Norrie's a significant step up in opposition level, as the former Wimbledon semifinalist is 9-2 in his last 11 Grand Slam matches, with two top-15 wins and losses to only Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz. Based on what we have seen so far from Djokovic at this tournament, this match should be much closer than the odds suggest, even if it would still be shocker to see Norrie get over the finish line given Djokovic's 6-0 head-to-head edge.
Ugo Blanchet (+350) vs. Tomas Machac
Perhaps inspired by the recent Cinderella runs of fellow French players Lois Boisson and Terence Atmane at the French Open and Cincinnati, respectively, Blanchet could be embarking on one of his own at the U.S. Open. After outlasting 16th-seeded Jakub Mensik, 6-7 (2), 7-6 (5), 3-6, 6-4, 7-6 (7) in the second round, the 184th-ranked qualifier Blanchet will look to take out another seeded Czech in No. 21 Tomas Machac, who hasn't put his best foot forward at Grand Slams so far. Machac came into this tournament with a .500 career Grand Slam main-draw record and will have all the pressure on him in this match.
Honorable Mention
Jan-Lennard Struff (+250) vs. Frances Tiafoe
U.S. Open Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Jessica Pegula (-380) vs. Victoria Azarenka
Pegula's the far superior player at this point in their respective careers. Last year's U.S. Open runner-up is in fine form to begin this year's event, having dropped only four games apiece in each of her first two matches. The 36-year-old Azarenka's a two-time Grand Slam champion, but she failed to string together consecutive main-draw wins between last year's U.S. Open and this year's event, dropping to No. 132 in the rankings. The fourth-seeded Pegula should get on the front foot consistently by attacking Azarenka's middling serve, while Pegula's own serve is less attackable.
Aryna Sabalenka (-650) vs. Leylah Fernandez
Sabalenka hasn't lost prior to the quarterfinals of a Grand Slam since the 2022 French Open, and that's unlikely to change here, even against a former U.S. Open finalist in Fernandez. Leylah lacks the weapons to keep pace with Sabalenka's power off the ground, while Sabalenka's mental game is in a much better place compared to the 2021 U.S. Open, when the pressure of chasing her first career Grand Slam title got to Sabalenka in a 7-6 (3), 4-6, 6-4 semifinal loss to Fernandez. This is their first meeting since then, and Sabalenka will be motivated to exact some revenge.
Honorable Mention
Ann Li (-250) vs. Priscilla Hon
U.S. Open Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Jasmine Paolini (-120) vs. Marketa Vondrousova
Both of these players have found success on all surfaces, but Vondrousova's game lags just a bit behind on hard courts, where the lefty's crafty style isn't quite as effective as Paolini's mix of court coverage and offense. Paolini's in her best hard-court form of 2025 coming off a runner-up result in Cincinnati and has pushed her ranking up to No. 4, while the 60th-ranked Vondrousova doesn't have a top-20 hard-court win in 2025. Vondrousova won their only previous encounter, but that came back in 2017 and doesn't offer much insight into how they match up now.
Barbora Krejcikova (+105) vs. Emma Navarro
Navarro ended Krejcikova's Wimbledon title defense with a three-set win in the third round, but Krejcikova has a chance to bite a massive chunk out of Navarro's ranking points in return here, as Navarro's No. 11 ranking is supported in large part by last year's U.S. Open semifinal result. Krecjikova has displayed vintage form at this tournament, having notched a pair of straight-sets wins, including a 6-3, 6-2 first-round drubbing of Canadian Open champion and No. 22 seed Victoria Mboko. Navarro has found her game in New York but there may still be some scar tissue from the 1-5 stretch she endured preceding the U.S. Open.
Honorable Mention
Arthur Rinderknech (+110) vs. Benjamin Bonzi
