Wimbledon 2025: Sabalenka Looks To Slow Down Upsets Friday
While Americans celebrate Independence Day in the United States on Friday, Wimbledon action continues across the pond with third-round play from the grass courts of the All England Club in London. The No. 1 seed on the women's side will look to avoid joining the rest of the top five on the sidelines, while grass-court comfort and experience could prove to be the deciding factor in some of Friday's other matchup.
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All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as Wimbledon are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous grass court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Wimbledon Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Adrian Mannarino (+225) vs. Andrey Rublev
Mannarino's flat, compact strokes are perfect for grass, and the 37-year-old Frenchman has already won five matches at this tournament, having worked his way through qualifying. He's been to the fourth round here three times and had Roger Federer on the ropes in 2021 before Mannarino injured his knee on a mid-match slip. Rublev uses much bigger swings to generate his power, while Mannarino will be able to simply redirect that power and use the skidding grass to rob Rublev of time. This is only the third time in six tries that the 14th-seeded Russian has gotten past the second round here, so grass is Rublev's worst surface in addition to being Mannarino's best.
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (+195) vs. Naomi Osaka
Osaka's serve makes her dangerous on grass, but her weak movement has been exposed here over the years, as she's never advanced past the third round of Wimbledon. The 53rd-ranked Osaka has capitalized on a favorable draw, defeating two players ranked outside the top 80, but the 50th-ranked Pavlyuchenkova presents a step up in level of competition. Pavlyuchenkova has been at least a quarterfinalist at all four Grand Slams in her career, and the veteran Russian can absorb Osaka's power in baseline rallies while using variety to capitalize on Osaka's subpar court coverage. Osaka has a 2-1 edge in their head-to-head, but all three meetings came on Osaka's preferred hard courts.
Honorable Mention
Diane Parry (+140) vs. Sonay Kartal
Wimbledon Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Karen Khachanov (-255) vs. Nuno Borges
Khachanov is ranked 17 spots above Borges at No. 20, and the Russian is the far more accomplished grass-court player. Khachanov's 14-5 in his career at Wimbledon and reached the quarterfinals in 2021, while Borges' ATP Tour-level grass-court record is just 4-9. The 6-foot-6 Russian gets a lot more free points on serve and has a much easier time infusing power to finish off rallies, so this should be a comfortable stylistic matchup for the favorite.
Aryna Sabalenka (-370) vs. Emma Raducanu
Raducanu will have the crowd in her corner, but the top-ranked Sabalenka's massive edge in power makes this a tough matchup for the 40th-ranked Brit. Raducanu's cerebral game helped her handle the trickiness of Marketa Vondrousova in the previous round, but she lost her only previous encounter with Sabalenka in straight sets last year at Indian Wells and is likely to be bullied around the court in this rematch as well. The upsets have been flowing freely at Wimbledon, especially in the women's draw, where four of the top five seeds lost in the first two rounds for only the second time in Grand Slam history, but Sabalenka has been immune to early-round surprises in majors since hitting her prime. She has reached at least the semifinals in nine of her last 10 Grand Slam appearances, and the only exception was a quarterfinal showing at the French Open last year.
Honorable Mention
Amanda Anisimova (-600) vs. Dalma Galfi
Wimbledon Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Cameron Norrie (-165) vs. Mattia Bellucci
Norrie plays his best tennis at Wimbledon, with a style built for grass and plenty of crowd support from the British faithful. The former top-10 player and 2022 Wimbledon semifinalist is in vintage form, coming off an impressive four-set win over No. 12 seed Frances Tiafoe in the second round. Bellucci plays much bigger than his 5-foot-9 frame, but the 73rd-ranked Italian has failed to find sustained success at the game's highest level, with just a 15-19 career record in ATP Tour-level matches. He was just 1-5 in Grand Slam main draw matches prior to this tournament, and Bellucci's lack of experience in top-level lefty vs. lefty matches could help Norrie find favorable rally patterns.
Elina Svitolina (-145) vs. Elise Mertens
Both of these players are extremely consistent with high floors, but Svitolina's generally the better singles player. The 14th-seeded Ukrainian has an impressive 32-10 record in 2025, and she's been particularly good at Wimbledon in recent years, with a semifinal showing in 2023 followed by a quarterfinal run in 2024. Mertens is an elite doubles player and generally beats the players she should beat in the early rounds in singles before bowing out against opponents of Svitolina's ilk, as the 24th-seeded Belgian is into the third round for the 25th time in her Grand Slam career but has proceeded to make the quarterfinals or better only three times. Svitolina's 5-3 head-to-head edge includes a 2-0 record on grass, and Svitolina just defeated Mertens in straight sets at the Bad Homburg Open on grass less than two weeks ago.
Honorable Mention
Solana Sierra (+100) vs. Cristina Bucsa
