This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Last article: 2-2 (-0.35 RW Bucks)
Season Record: 11-11-2 (-1.61 RW Bucks)
I'm in on a couple of late-night AL/NL battles Thursday night that feature some formidable starting pitchers. Still, despite the talent, I believe I see enough of a vulnerability in two of them to help guide my wagers, with one other bet also focused on a quality squad that's particularly short-handed at the moment.
Tampa Bay Rays 
at Seattle Mariners 
9:40pm ET
Starting Pitchers: Shane McClanahan vs. Robbie Ray
McClanahan already boasts a 14.0 K/9 over his first five starts, but he's also pitched to some contact at times. The southpaw has given up four home runs across his first 27 innings, a 40.4 percent hard-hit rate and allowed multiple runs in four straight outings. He's also issued multiple free passes in three starts, which could spell some trouble against a Mariners squad that owns an MLB-high 13.1 percent walk rate against lefties, including 18.8 percent at home. Seattle also boasts a .284 average and .417 wOBA against left-handers at home in an 85-plate-appearance sample, with both of those figures qualifying as MLB highs.
Ray has been effective overall in his first five starts with his new squad, although after holding the Twins to one run over seven innings his first time out, he's pitched to a 1-2 mark and 5.01 ERA over his subsequent four turns. A bulk of that elevated ERA can be attributed to a six-run outing against the White Sox in his second start, as he owns a much more respectable 3.71 ERA in his last three trips to the mound. Ray has limited current Rays bats to a collective .228 average and .270 OBP while recording 44 strikeouts in 149 career encounters against them.
MLB Best Bet #1 for Mariners-Rays: Mariners Money Line – 1st 5 innings (+114 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
Secondary Pick: Shane McClanahan Over 1.5 Walks Given (+115 at DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
St. Louis Cardinals 
at San Francisco Giants 
9:45pm ET
Starting Pitchers: Miles Mikolas vs. Logan Webb
Mikolas is finally healthy again and thriving, as he's pitched to a 1.52 ERA and 0.84 WHIP across his first five starts (29.2 innings). That body of work includes impressive outings against the Brewers, improved Marlins and the Mets, and he's displayed nearly impeccable control with just four walks overall. The Giants are significantly hampered by key absences at the moment with Brandon Belt, Tommy La Stella, Evan Longoria and LaMonte Wade all residing on the IL, while Mikolas has fashioned an 0.77 ERA and 0.69 WHIP across his first 11.2 road frames this season and will be toeing the rubber in one of the best pitcher's parks in baseball.
Webb, who's already started the season on somewhat shaky ground, has an especially tall order in front of him Thursday in the form of a Cardinals squad that's averaging a solid 4.2 runs per game and whose current bats have pounded him for a collective .366/.380/.449 slash line over 39 career encounters. Webb does have a 3-1 mark and solid 3.26 ERA, but he's given up more hits (33) than innings pitched (30.1) and has seen a significant drop in strikeout rate from 26.5 to 15.9 percent and rise in BAA from .232 to .275.
MLB Best Bet #1 for Cardinals-Giants: Cardinals Over 1.5 Total Runs – 1st 5 innings (-115 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
MLB Best Bet #2 for Cardinals-Giants: Miles Mikolas Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-155 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
Before you place your bets, be sure to use all of RotoWire's MLB resources, like our MLB Lineups page, MLB Weather page, and the best batter vs. pitcher stats.
