This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets Today: MLB Betting Picks for Monday, April 28
Slowly but surely, I'm making my way towards profitability. Tampa and Drew Rasmussen came through for us last Thursday to give us two straight winning columns, moving my overall record to 6-9 on the season for -2.76 units.
Today, I'm back to evaluate Monday's schedule for Best Bets. In the name of full transparency, I think today's slate is quite challenging and I would be very happy with another 2-1 day. I want all our readers to have as much success as possible and I'm just letting everyone know they may want to throttle down a touch today.
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Best MLB Bets Today
Nationals vs Mets: Best Moneyline Bet
The Nats go for the four-game series win in New York, sending Trevor Williams out to start against New York's Griffin Canning. Both teams are playing good ball with Washington at 6-4 and NY at 8-2 in their last 10 games, respectively. Williams got off to a rocky start, but has turned things around in his last two starts with identical 5 IP/1 ER/5 K performances at Pittsburgh on April 17 and against Baltimore on April 23. Canning has been very good for the Mets, but his success has come at home. In his two road starts, Canning has given up six earned runs over 11 innings and the Nats lineup will be the best one he's faced away from home. I like the value on the Nats today.
Pick: Nationals moneyline (+145 at BetRivers)
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Orioles vs Yankees: Top Underdog Pick
When I evaluated the Orioles this year, I predicted a step back. However, I did not expect the cliff to come so abruptly with so much young talent. Pitching has been Baltimore's downfall to date and their staff ERA of 6.99 (!!) over the last 10 games is evidence of their struggles.
The O's are licking their wounds after getting swept by Detroit and they HAVE to start somewhere if they are going to build momentum and climb out of the AL East cellar. Today is as good a day as any as they start a home series against the first-place Yankees with their best starting pitcher to date (Tomoyuki Sugano) going against spot starter Will Warren. Sugano doesn't strike out a lot of guys, but has done a good job of pitching to contact and avoiding the long ball in critical situations. The O's get a quality start from Sugano and the bats have a good day to take the first game of this critical series.
Pick: Orioles moneyline (+105 at BetMGM)
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Athletics and Rangers: Best Bet on the Total
I'm not a fan of laying odds in MLB, but even at -120, I think there's value in the under in this one. I have to go with published odds for the purposes of this article, but if you can find a 9 or even 8.5 at plus money, I'd jump on that. Why? For one, this pitching matchup is a good one with JP Sears going for the A's and Patrick Corbin on the hill for the Rangers. Secondly, 12 of Texas' last 13 games have had eight or less runs scored. 12 of 13! That's more than enough evidence for me to recommend this under in many different ways.
Pick: Under 9.5 runs
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MLB Picks Recap
- Nationals ML (+145 @ BetRivers)
- Orioles ML (+105 @ BetMGM)
- Athletics/Rangers UNDER 9.5 (-120 @ FanDuel)
