Collette Calls: 2025 NL West Bold Predictions

The last 10 players. Min pick of 55, Max pick of 743 with an ADP of 306. Thanks for reading through all six installments of this year's series and please feel free to praise me or taunt me throughout the season as these predictions either take place or never get off the ground. I feel a certain amount of pressure with this last one since this same installment last year contained predictions stating Zac Gallen wasn't a top 100 pitcher, Brenton Doyle was a deep sleeper, and Michael King was going to break out. 

All ADP reference are for the 104 Draft Champions drafts which have taken place in the month of January.

Arizona

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is not a top-300 player (ADP 227)

Did you know that since the start of the 2020 season, Gurriel Jr. has the 20th best batting average of all players with at least 2000 plate appearance over the past five seasons? Neither did I. He is right there with teammate Ketel Marte as well as Kyle Tucker and has hit for a better average than the likes of Jose Ramirez, Rafael Devers, and Carlos Correa. He's projected to hit cleanup this year and is coming off a strong season in which he set career highs in runs and steals, all while being an undervalued contributor across five categories. 2025 is also the final year of his contract, so he likely has that internal motivation to have a big year to score his next payday. So, why do I not like him as much as the market?

Gurriel is another one of those impatient players who puts a lot of balls into play because he doesn't accept his walks and makes a lot of contact. The batted-ball fortunes have mostly swung his way throughout his career, as he's made his own luck and has just once had his BABIP finish below .300 in a season. Gurriel Jr. has earned that luck by striking the ball hard, with top 25th Hard Hit rates throughout his career. Yet, there were some concerning signs in his 2024 numbers.

Gurriel Jr.'s aforementioned Hard Hit rate was in the 48th percentile last season, which is easily the lowest of his career. The only injury I was able to find documented for him was a calf strain which put him on the injured list in September, so if he was playing through an injury, he was hiding it. His bat speed came in in the 26th percentile, and his chase rate has now declined for three consecutive seasons, going from the 47th to the 22nd percentile. I see a player who is already pressing the action in a spot where he is motivated to do more of that and not less in his walk year. The homers he does hit were very Isaac Paredes-like, with 17 of his 18 being dead pull shots, as he loves to hunt for fastballs. At 31 years old, these skills are unlikely to improve and I am concerned he performs his way out of the cleanup spot and gets shifted further down the lineup where his production will be impacted. Simply put, I'm staying away from this situation. 

Brandon Pfaadt is a top-50 pitcher (ADP 169)

Pfaadt is currently 69th on the pitcher ADP rankings, just behind Shane Baz and just ahead of Zach Eflin. The last we saw of Pfaadt, he ended the season punching out nine Padres while scattering three hits for his 11th win of the year during the final weekend of the regular season. He just missed striking out 10 or more hitters for the fifth time in 2024, which would have put him in a group of just six pitchers with five or more games of 10+ strikeouts joining the likes of Chris Sale, Tyler Glasnow, Garrett Crochet, Blake Snell, Nick Pivetta (can't quit him) and Dylan Cease. 

Pfaadt struck out just over a batter per inning pitched but did so in an unusual way, because he doesn't blow everyone away with big velocity. His sweeper has been a weapon ever since coming to the majors, as the league has hit .202 off the pitch when they've put it into play while striking out 34 percent of the time against that pitch. His changeup has been an additional weapon, with whiff rates over 30 percent in each of the past two seasons. Pfaadt's fastball has admittedly not been a great pitch for him, but I'm very intrigued with the splitter that he rolled out 16 times in June and then never used again the rest of the season. 

One way to make a mediocre fastball look better is to add a splitter to the mix. See Kirby Yates, Kevin Gausman, or even Bryce Miller, who took things to another level last season after adding a splitter. Pfaadt already had a great changeup, but lefties have gotten the better of him, accounting for 27 of the 39 homers he's allowed while hitting 50 points higher off him than righties have. His fastball doesn't perform as well against lefties (.269 BA, .455 SLG, 18 percent whiff rate) as it does against righties (.257 BA, .486 SLG, 28 percent whiff rate), but adding a splitter could help because it would give Pfaadt six different pitches to use against those hitters to help keep lefties off that fastball.

If Pfaadt comes out in Cactus League games showing a splitter again, I will get very excited, because the pieces are all there for him to take even another step forward in 2025 after his impressive second year in Arizona. 

Colorado

Michael Toglia is the best Italian first baseman (ADP 191)

There are but two names to consider here: Toglia and Vinnie Pasquantino. The latter is currently 80 spots ahead of the former in the ADP rankings because the profile is safer. Pasquantino has been what Toglia has not been so far as a major-leaguer: a high-contact hitter. Both batters have been in the league since 2022, but Pasquantino has struck out 136 times in 1,112 plate appearances while Toglia struck out 147 times last season alone. The big, obvious difference is the amount contact, but let's talk about the quality of contact. 

Toglia was in the 90th percentile in all of the following categories last season:

• Average Exit Velocity (91st)
• Barrel% (98th)
• Hard-Hit% (94th)
• Launch Angle Sweet Spot % (91st)

He hit for more average and more power against lefties in 2024 but has been rather split-neutral over the course of his time at the big-league level. His strikeout rate is an abysmal 33 percent from both sides of the plate, but when he isn't hitting rockets, he's also walking, as he has a career 10 percent walk rate including a career-best 11.8 percent last season. You can just feel the three true outcome potential coming through these words.

Toglia is the type of player who would be one slump away from the minors or the bench, but this is Colorado we are discussing. They will be out of contention by Mothers' Day at the latest, and the depth chart behind Toglia contains the likes of Kyle Farmer and Keston Hiura. Simply put, Toglia will have an extremely long leash to show whether he's the next Adam Dunn or the next Chris Carter. You know who else hit the ball really hard around a lot of strikeouts on a bad team recently? 

This is the dream I am chasing with this prediction. Two years ago, this column said go get Nolan Jones. Last year, it said go get Brenton Doyle. Don't mess with a streak.

Jaden Hill has a positive dollar value in mixed leagues (ADP 743)

This particular spot of the bold prediction series has been the bane of my existence because I have yet to hit on any one of these guys. Victor Vodnik tried his best last season with 65 strikeouts, five wins and nine saves, but those ratios ended my dream. There is no way I'm recommending a starting pitcher here, so I'll throw another bullpen dart and go with the guy who has the best stuff in the pen. 

Admittedly, Hill's Stuff+ grades in the 10.2 IP he threw last year aren't much, but at a per-pitch level, his fastball and slider grade out well. Hill came in 366th on James Anderson's recent Farm Futures Top 400 rankings and 21st in the Rockies' top prospect list put out by FanGraphs in early January. What jumped out to me with Hill's report is that he has three pitches graded 60/80, with his fastball, slider and changeup already there. After all, Hill is a first-round pick out of LSU, and he used that arsenal to strikeout 53 batters in 51 innings while working through Tommy John surgery and rehab. That did not prohibit the Rockies from taking Hill, who has pitched to a 6.33 ERA in their system with Nuke Laloosh-like results. 151 strikeouts in 106.2 innings (new league record) along with 48 walks and 17 wild pitches — another new league record! He hit the sportswriter, the public address announcer, the Hartford Yard Goats' mascot twice...also new league records! But folks, this guy's got some serious stuff.

I know Tyler Kinley has the job for now and Seth Halvorsen throws hard, but Bud Black does not sound committed to any one guy:

"As far as our dedicated closer just yet, we don't know," Rockies manager Bud Black said. "I thought Halvorsen did a nice job. There were a couple of slip-ups, but I have the memory of him striking out Max Muncy with the bases loaded in Dodger Stadium for a save. I also have memories of the next night too, but you learn from that. I like the stuff, and I like what our player development people have said about him.
…

"Vodnik showed he can pitch late in the game," [GM Bill] Schmidt said. "Halverson showed it. Agnos has done it in the Minor Leagues and so has Jaden Hill. Those guys right there have a chance to emerge."

Hill did have six saves for Hartford last season with 56 strikeouts in 38.1 innings while allowing 3 homers before some PCL baptism by fire torched his final numbers. The good news with any Rockies' reliever is you can draft him and cut him without any guilt, so why not take a chance in deeper NL leagues or draft-and-hold formats with someone who is one skill away from dominating in the pen?

Los Angeles

Andy Pages finishes as a top-60 outfielder (ADP 358)

I know the Dodgers have done everything they can to block Pages from the diamond this winter, but I will let this situation play out one way or the other. If baseball was like a video game, the Dodgers could set every player's health to 100 and probably win 130 games this season, but that is not possible. Can you imagine Michael Conforto or Tommy Edman staying healthy all season? Is Hyeseong Kim really going to come over and handle a starting position at the major leagues for the team everyone is trying to knock off? 

It honestly does not take long to envision a path for Pages to get into the lineup and showcase his skills, especially should he get the Miguel Vargas treatment and be dealt away to a non-contending club should the Dodgers uncover a need they haven't already purchased this offseason. Pages held his own as a 23-year-old last season and absolutely raked against lefties. He is simply cursed at the moment by the depth of talent in front of him on the roster, and that is going to be a big hill for him to climb. 

I'm encouraged by what we saw as the season went on, particularly how he closed the season:

Yoshinobu Yamamoto wins the NL Cy Young (ADP 55)

I believe this is my first award-based bold prediction this season, and I hope it works out better than this same prediction I made with Tyler Glasnow last year. I mean, Glasnow did set a career high in innings, but Chris Sale and a few others ruined that prediction. Yamamoto had a fantastic major-league debut season around a right rotator cuff strain which sidelined him for most of the summer, but he came back to make four starts to finish the regular season and won two of his four postseason starts.

Baseball Savant has Yamamoto throwing six different pitches last season, with three of them generating whiff rates over 30 percent, while his splitter and slider were nearly unhittable. More impressively, Yamamoto allowed just six homers in his 90 inning of work. He is the 13th starting pitcher off the board and is going 18 picks later than Jacob deGrom. That may represent the best example of wishcasting in the history of fantasy baseball. Not to get sidetracked here, but deGrom going inside the top 40 overall feels like everyone has thrown aside years' worth of a reliable cautionary tale only because Chris Sale blew it all up last season. 

Needless to say, the conditions are ripe for Yamamoto to have a terrific sophomore season. The Dodgers are going to be in a position to win every time he takes the mound, and their bullpen isn't going to cough up leads once he leaves the game. Projecting wins is risky, but a healthy Yamamoto should have 15 wins in the bank with 20-win upside, with the strikeouts and ratios to boot. He's going to outpitch both his fellow countrymen this season and take home the hardware. Yoyaku suru!

San Diego

Xander Bogaerts is a top-3 second baseman (ADP 156)

Bogaerts is coming off a rough overall season, but let's look under that hood. Bogaerts got off to a terrible start to the season with just 4 homers through his first 200 plate appearances before a diving attempt to stop a Ronald Acuna Jr. groundball resulted in a fractured shoulder bone. Bogaerts missed two months in recovery and came back to hit .299/.338/.442 with 7 homers in his final 263 at-bats. The 11 homers were down from the 19 he hit just a season before but were reminiscent of his lower homer total (15) in his final season in Boston. Perhaps that is why Bogaerts's ADP is lower than we have ever seen it, as he's just barely inside the top 10 at second base and 15th by ADP at shortstop. What are we even doing here?

The fact Bogaerts fell just shy of hitting .300 after coming back from a two-month layoff speaks to his hitting talents. Prior to last season, the lowest OBP that Bogaerts has ever had in a full season was .297, way back in his age 21 season. He has lived over .340 in every season since, and his batting average has never been below the .264 we just saw through in his injury-hampered 2024 season. The days of 20-plus homers are likely behind Bogaerts without the help of Fenway and with the marine layer in San Diego, but he was hitting the ball harder as the season went on and should be able to resume his 600-plus plate appearance ways in 2024 to help across all five categories.

The new stolen base rules have been to his liking, and with the second base pool a bit shallow these days, Bogaerts has an excellent chance to remind us just how good of a fantasy asset he can be when he's on the field for his normal volume of at-bats. The current market price is an insanely good bargain that isn't going to last much longer. 

Michael King is not a top-50 pitcher (ADP 64)

It would be hypocritical of me to make references to workload concerns with other pitchers in my analysis and projections and just whistle past the graveyard on the situation with King. His workload by innings pitched has increased 105.2 percent and 65.9 percent year-over-year in consecutive seasons, and he threw 240.5 percent more innings in 2024 than he threw just two seasons ago. If pitch count is more to your liking, the numbers went up 116.8 percent from 2022 to 2023 and 72.1 percent from 2023 to 2024, good for a 273.1 percent increase in pitches from 2022 to his total from last season.

It is for this reason I believe the Padres mentioned King's name in trade talks this month according to Ken Rosenthal. King is in the walk year of his contract, but to float trade rumors without any whiff of an extension offer makes me believe they are more concerned with how his body holds up this year after this run of workload acceleration and would prefer to deal him now.

I loved King last season and felt he was a bargain when he was going in the 140s, earning him a positive prediction in this series last year. The market price is now full freight and then some, and whereas last year I said he would be better than the likes of Hunter Greene, Chris Bassitt, Jordan Montgomery and Merrill Kelly, this year I would rather have Greene out of that trio as well as someone like Hunter Brown, both of whom are going two or three rounds after King. 

San Francisco

Jerar Encarnacion is a top-100 outfielder (ADP 575)

Maybe it is because I'm automatically drawn to the last name due to my long, loving relationship with dear Edwin Encarnacion. This Encarnacion is going in between the likes of Ramon Laureano, Luis Matos, Addison Barger and Will Benson. Encarnacion is roughly 110 spots outside the top 100 outfielders by ADP rankings, but I'm taking a chance on this bat. It goes without saying that he'll first have to make some contact if any of this is to come to fruition.

Encarnacion spent seven seasons in the Miami organization and hit as many as 22 homers one year, but he also struck out 200 times in 516 plate appearances in Triple-A Jacksonville in 2023. There have only been 14 hitters in the 21st century to strike out at least 200 times in a season according to Baseball America, and Encarnacion is the only one who ever reached the majors. That's why I was impressed to see him reduce his Triple-A strikeout rate from 38.8 percent to 24.0 percent with the Giants after they signed him to a minor-league deal in May and then get to the majors for the first time since 2022 and post a better strikeout rate than the 39.5 percent mark he managed that season. Don't get me wrong, his contact profile is still very risky, but the reward if these contact improvements are happening could be fun with the Giants:

Look at all that red in all the right places. Am I suggesting going out and getting Toglia and Encarnacion on the same roster? Of course not; risk mitigation is still a very important part of playing fantasy baseball. Encarnacion doesn't even currently have a projected regular spot in the lineup, but I'm of the belief that power gets its way onto the field sooner rather than later, and the Giants are in desperate need of power, with nobody projected with more than 25 homers in the lineup and just three guys with 20 or more homers in their projections. 

Glenallen Hill once struck out 211 times in 512 plate appearances for the Florence Blue Jays in the South Atlantic League in 1984. The Jays stuck with him and watched him improve enough to reach the majors in 1989, and Hill went on to enjoy a 10-year major-league career with 186 homers, including this unforgettable shot off Steve Woodward:

Sure, Hill was a bit inflated in those days, but Encarnacion has the juice to hit a ball that far, as his own highlight video shows:

Landen Roupp is a top-150 pitcher (ADP 520)

I rarely use the same player in these predictions over consecutive seasons, especially if both predictions are positive ones. I am going back to the well with Roupp, as I did last season, because I quite frankly could not find an interesting pitcher to look into. Ryan Walker has the closer role and while Erik Miller and Sean Hjelle both have some interesting pieces, I cannot visualize paths to fantasy relevance for either. I can, however, see a path for Roupp.

Roupp did miss some time last season with an arm issue but made it to the Giants by the end of the season and showed the awesome curveball which first drew me to him last winter:

During the 50 innings Roupp worked with the Giants, Stuff+ had his curveball as an elite pitch at 155, and all three of his pitches came in above average. I would love to see him add another pitch to his sinker/slider/changeup repertoire (hello, cutter) and his path to the rotation could be as simple as the Giants going to a six-man rotation or ending the Jordan Hicks starter experiment. Roupp is someone who struck out 26 percent of the hitters he faced at UNC Wilmington and then struck out 36.2 percent of the minor-league hitters he faced since coming out of the 2021 draft. I am once again asking you to get excited about this kid's potential.