This article is part of our Collette Calls series.
I spent the winter talking about stolen bases, but even I am surprised by the early results of the stolen base production in baseball this year. As play begins on April 19th, the league is 379 of 463 in stolen base attempts, which is an 81 percent success rate. I monitor the running game stats each morning, and that success rate has not yet fallen under 80 percent all season. This is why the league is also taking off for the next unoccupied base 6.2 percent of the time, a frequency we haven't seen in the majors since the 2011 season as well as one of the highest frequencies of the past 25 seasons:
174 different players have at least one stolen base this season, from noted speedster Luke Voit to Nico Hoerner and Cedric Mullins, who are leading their respective leagues with 9 steals each. We are still a ways off from matching the total of 429 players who attempted a stolen base in 2022, but the fact remains this league has its track shoes on and has been extremely active on the bases through the first few weeks of the season. Well, at least most of the league is. There are some teams and some players who have yet to join in the fun, whether by design, by roster construction or due to injury. We must consider team context as a factor in why any individual player isn't running as often as we wish they would.
By
I spent the winter talking about stolen bases, but even I am surprised by the early results of the stolen base production in baseball this year. As play begins on April 19th, the league is 379 of 463 in stolen base attempts, which is an 81 percent success rate. I monitor the running game stats each morning, and that success rate has not yet fallen under 80 percent all season. This is why the league is also taking off for the next unoccupied base 6.2 percent of the time, a frequency we haven't seen in the majors since the 2011 season as well as one of the highest frequencies of the past 25 seasons:
174 different players have at least one stolen base this season, from noted speedster Luke Voit to Nico Hoerner and Cedric Mullins, who are leading their respective leagues with 9 steals each. We are still a ways off from matching the total of 429 players who attempted a stolen base in 2022, but the fact remains this league has its track shoes on and has been extremely active on the bases through the first few weeks of the season. Well, at least most of the league is. There are some teams and some players who have yet to join in the fun, whether by design, by roster construction or due to injury. We must consider team context as a factor in why any individual player isn't running as often as we wish they would.
By Team
The league average data tell us the average big-league team has attempted 15 steals this season and has been successful 80 percent of the time in doing so. The Cleveland Guardians are at the front of the pack with 30 attempted steals this season followed closely by the Baltimore Orioles and Chicago Cubs, who have both attempted 28 steals. The other side of that leaderboard is incredible when you consider there are four players — Corbin Carroll, Jeremy Pena, Anthony Volpe and Bobby Witt — who have as many steals (3) in a single game as two teams have attempted all season:
Remember that 6.1 percent rate I mentioned earlier? Minnesota has attempted a steal when the next base was unoccupied 1.4 percent of the time, while the Rockies are even more rooted to the base, attempting a steal in 1.2 percent of those circumstances. The table below shows the data for the most inactive teams on the basepaths so far this season:
TEAM | SBO | SB | CS | SBA | SB% | SBA% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Colorado Rockies | 253 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 67% | 1.2% |
Minnesota Twins | 215 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 33% | 1.4% |
Texas Rangers | 245 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 83% | 2.4% |
Los Angeles Dodgers | 250 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 43% | 2.8% |
Boston Red Sox | 251 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 100% | 3.2% |
Los Angeles Angels | 250 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 67% | 3.6% |
Only Texas and Boston have solid success rates among this group. Boston has had seven different players steal a base, but only Masataka Yoshida has successfully converted multiple steals this season. Texas has just four players who have stolen a base. Travis Jankowski has two, while preseason darling Bubba Thompson has as many as you and me so far.
Minnesota's sole stolen base belongs to Michael Taylor, but this team's current hesitancy to run isn't terribly surprising given its roster construction. We knew Carlos Correa wasn't going to run and Byron Buxton already transitioned away from steals. Jorge Polanco (knee) cannot steal bases while on the injured list, and Nick Gordon has to actually get on base in order to steal. The latter two names were supposed to provide the majority of steals on this squad, but Polanco has yet to see the field and Gordon has reached base five times all season. I believe this is much more to do with roster construction than Rocco Baldelli choosing to play station-to-station baseball. He can only play the cards he is dealt, and right now he has no speed face cards in his hand.
Ryan McMahon and Yonathan Daza have the only steals in Colorado, while Charlie Blackmon had a delusion of grandeur and unsuccessfully attempted a stolen base. This, too, is a team not really built to move on the bases, and this situation appears to be more permanent than what Minnesota is dealing with because the Rockies are constructed like your average slow-pitch softball team rather than one that can create runs on the basepaths.
James Outman is the only Dodger with multiple steals this season, while their other steal comes from backup catcher Austin Barnes. Meanwhile, Mookie Betts is 0-for-1 on the basepaths despite a .390 on-base percentage this season. Betts has seen his sprint speed percentile fall from 87th to 53rd to 49th to 41st over the past few seasons, which isn't a great sign for him suddenly rebounding in the stolen base department. A ninth consecutive season of double-digit steals is certainly still in the range of possible outcomes, but it's going to be close.
Meanwhile, down the interstate, Shohei Ohtani finally joined the stolen base fun by successfully stealing a base against the Yankees on Tuesday night, but it's pinch-runner extraordinaire Brett Phillips who leads the club with two steals despite the fact that he has zero hits in very limited playing time. Mike Trout continues to abstain from thefts as he's yet to attempt a stolen base this season despite a .438 on-base percentage.
By Player
It's bad enough when players are on teams that simply are not running. It's worse when you have a player on your roster who is on a team that's running but that particular player, despite having the necessary skills, is staying put. Mike Trout is one of those players who is guilty of both, as the Angels aren't running and he's yet to attempt a steal despite having a top-30 sprint speed this season. He is not alone, as there are several players with speed who aren't doing much, if anything, on the bases this season (min 25 stolen base opportunities):
| PLAYER | SBO | SB | CS | SBA | SBA% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Baez | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| Mauricio Dubon | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| Brandon Marsh | 35 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.8% |
| Tyler O'Neill | 26 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3.7% |
| Bo Bichette | 48 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4.2% |
| Marcus Semien | 38 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5.3% |
| Brandon Nimmo | 37 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5.4% |
| Riley Greene | 29 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6.9% |
| Whit Merrifield | 26 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7.7% |
| Trea Turner | 38 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7.9% |
| Shohei Ohtani | 25 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8.0% |
| Kyle Tucker | 46 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 8.7% |
| Randy Arozarena | 32 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9.4% |
One would think that Baez would want to get in motion on the bases, but that has not happened. The fact that Riley Greene is also on this list could hint at A.J. Hinch being reticent to run, as the club certainly doesn't have the bats which would dictate the team standing around waiting for a three-run homer. Dubon was a steals source in the minors with 136 steals over 8 minor-league seasons but has just 9 career steals in 800 major-league plate appearances. Kyle Tucker has had a much higher volume of opportunities on the same club and hasn't done more with those, which could also point back to manager Dusty Baker as the responsible party. Marsh and O'Neill have not used their athleticism on the basepaths, and both were looked at for steals this year in draft season. It doesn't feel like a managerial matter in Philadelphia, but even Trea Turner isn't running nearly as much as fantasy managers had hoped thus far.
Higher profile names are certainly not immune. Both Bichette and Merrifield have rarely attempted steals in Toronto this season, but that could very well come down to the boom or bust style of the team's offense and a desire to avoid running into outs in front of the Jays' better hitters. Semien has certainly had plenty of chances, but he too hasn't run as much as hoped even as Texas looks to make up the offense lost with the injury to Corey Seager (hamstring). Nimmo continues to get on base but also continues to be rather satisfied staying put rather than capitalizing on his many opportunities to steal. I only include Arozarena on this list because his limitations are mainly due to the Rays being in so many lopsided games early in the season, leading manager Kevin Cash to put the restrictor plate on the normally aggressive outfielder.
What Should You Do?
The best advice right now is to exercise patience and wait to see how future opportunities play out. There are several teams whose pitcher and catcher batteries are struggling to control the running game, and you should look to those matchups to potentially revive your struggling speedsters in daily or weekly formats.
Advantageous team matchups by volume:
- Dodgers - 4-of-27 throwing out runners
- Padres - 2 of 25 throwing out runners
- Guardians - 3-of-23 throwing out runners
- Mets - 1-of-21 throwing out runners
- Athletics - 3-of-23 throwing out runners
- White Sox - 4-of-22 throwing out runners
- Rangers - 2-of-20 throwing out runners
- Red Sox - 5-of-22 throwing out runners
Advantageous pitcher matchups by volume (every attempted steal against these pitchers has been successful):
- Cristian Javier - 7 steals
- Noah Syndergaard - 6 steals
- Nathan Eovaldi - 5 steals
- Chris Sale - 5 steals
- Shane Bieber - 4 steals
- Mike Clevinger - 4 steals
- Michael Grove - 4 steals
- Andrew Heaney - 4 steals
- Rich Hill - 4 steals
- Kyle Muller - 4 steals
As long as the league continues to convert stolen base attempts at the current success rate, the league will continue to steal bases at this volume. Certain teams have yet to experience the luxury of facing the more favorable matchups, but their time is coming. The Dodgers have the Cubs, Pirates, and Cardinals the rest of this month meaning Nico Hoerner could continue to pile on his steals, or Ji Hwan Bae gets back in motion, or O'Neill finally gets moving. The Jays close out the month with the White Sox and Mariners, who are a combined 6 of 33 in throwing runners out this season which could allow the likes of Bichette and Merrifield to get in motion as well.
