Collette Calls: Non-Closing Relievers

Much attention is given to which pitcher managers hand the ball off to in the ninth inning for a save, mainly because saves are one of the longest-standing scoring categories in fantasy baseball. In recent years, a bullpen's relevancy to fantasy baseball has grown, as a greater percentage of wins have migrated to relievers. A decade ago, around two thirds of all wins went to starting pitchers. Since we resumed full seasons after 2020, we haven't seen starting pitchers earn even 60 percent of the wins in a given season, and 2024 isn't going to be any different, as we're still south of that marker as play begins on July 25th. Teams are seeing anywhere from 27 percent to 65 percent of their total wins being given to non-starting pitchers, which is surprising since we don't see nearly the volume of openers we saw in recent seasons:

I want to look at the non-closing parts of bullpens because they are such an important bridge to both starting pitcher win and closer saves. Any team which suffers from poor bullpen performance will see wins disappear from the starting rotation and saves become more scarce for the closer. This is important because most of you reading this play in standard mixed-league formats of varying depth and few fantasy managers carry non-closing relivers in those formats, yet these pitchers can adversely affect your roster from the free-agent pool. Simply put, I have some concerns about some bullpens on contending teams, where some pitchers that have gotten us this far could have some tougher sledding in the final two months of the season if their respective General Managers fail to address their team's bullpen depth over the next few days before the trade deadline. I'll start with Cleveland.

Rookie manager Stephen Vogt has the Guardians in first place, as the team got off to a surprising start with both their offense and their bullpen exceeding most expectations. However, that success has come at a price, as five of their relievers are in the top 25 of games worked this season:

Cleveland is tied with Washington for having the most relievers who have pitched in at least 40 games when you add the 42 games Nick Sandlin has worked to the chart above. The difference is the Nationals are a terrible team with Patrick Corbin pitching every five days, while the Guardians have postseason aspirations. The club showed signs of slipping before the break and mostly stumbled out of the gates since the break. The recent addition of Spencer Howard gives them a new arm to use in lower-leverage situations, but this team desperately needs to add more depth before these guys drag their arms to the finish line. They have three different starters in Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen and Ben Lively (UCF!), but Allen's non-win stats got him sent to AAA, so Sandlin is currently third in wins on the club with six. You would like to think Bibee and Lively could get to 12 wins by season's end and that Clase can get to 42+ saves for a third consecutive season, but this situation feels like it's one Cade Smith IL stint away from going south.

Next up would be the resurgent Astros, who have taken advantage of the Mariners taking on too much water and sinking in the standings. However, they have also leaned heavily on their bullpen, as their rotation has dealt with injuries:

68 percent of the wins on the pitching staff have gone to the starting rotation, as rookie skipper Joe Espada picked up where his predecessor Dusty Baker left off in terms of leaving starters in. Houston is in the bottom half of the league both by games pitched and innings pitched by its bullpen, but this quintet along with Seth Martinez in low leverage has done the majority of the work. Nobody else on the roster has as many as 28 innings of work as the remaining names are have more flaws than Montero has shown this season. Now that Houston finds itself back on top in the AL West, they should be looking for more experience to add depth to their shallow and overworked A-bullpen. It would also improve the chances of someone on this staff potentially winning 15 games. 

Baltimore is next up, but I'm not concerned about them being overworked as much as understaffed. 68 percent of the wins have gone to the starting rotation, but it sure feels as if that total should be higher. After all, the club blew a six-run lead on Thursday as Jacob Webb and Craig Kimbrel couldn't stop the bleeding after Corbin Burnes left the game. Burnes has already won 10 contests this year, but he left the game in the 8th with a 6-2 lead and a runner on second. That win should have been his, but Webb and Kimbrel surrendered four runs and pushed the game to extra innings where Yennier Cano picked up the win. Kimbrel has already blown more saves this year than he has in any season since 2011 and we have two more months to go. A team which is 60-41 having but two pitchers with more than six wins is crazy, but Kimbrel and Cole Irvin are tied for third place on this roster with six wins each. Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez need stronger insurance to continue piling up wins. 

I believe the trade deadline will be an overall disappointment for fantasy managers, as I don't expect too many big names to change places. However, these three squads should absolutely be shopping for more help in their bullpen to ensure they can make it to the finish line, build a strong bridge, or have a better overall insurance plan to help fantasy managers with much needed wins and saves over the final third of the season. Maybe we should all applaud the Mets, who are now in playoff contention and have but one reliever, Jake Diekman, with more than 40 appearances this season, or the Red Sox, who continue to surprise many despite just one reliever, Greg Weissert, working as many as 40 games.