Collette Calls: Spring Steals

We are but days away from the continental Opening Day, and we've seen enough data from the spring to revisit what I wrote about steals as camps opened. The conclusion of that piece was a reminder that the aggregate behavior of the league in stolen bases is a strong leading indicator of what will happen in the regular season. The correlation between league-wide stolen base attempts in spring and attempts in the regular season is a robust 0.82, so ignore it at your own peril.

As play begins on March 24, the league has attempted 1,026 steals this spring in 440 games played. That computes to 2.33 steals a contest. The league attempted 4,578 stolen bases last year, so I will resurface the table from the aforementioned article to show how much of a projected change we could see this season based on the spring training efforts to date:

More runners in scoring position naturally mean a likelihood of more runs. If we apply that same 3.3 percent increase to some counting categories, this is how that would change things:

The big uncertainty is what's going to happen with the baseball this season, because all bets are off if the baseball begins to travel further than it did last year. Historically, the HR/Contact rate in spring lags behind the regular season overall, but we usually need roughly two weeks of regular season data to see how the baseball is going to behave and how to adjust our expectations for overall offense in the regular season. The conditions in Florida and Arizona are unique compared to what we see in the regular season parks, but the current HR/Contact in the 2025 Spring Training season is 4.54 percent, which is a 2.95 percent improvement over last spring. If that rate holds up, we could expect approximately 160 more homers this season than we saw in 2024. I will reserve judgement until we get the early regular season data, but it's worth reminding you that what happens early with homers holds up rather well for the overall homer rate of the regular season. 

I only bring up the homers because if we do see an increase there, we could likely see a decrease in stolen base attempts this season. We do not yet have the data to back that up because of the recent changes to the stolen base rules, but we do know as homers went down, steals went up. We saw the liveliest baseballs in recent memory in 2019 as homers hit a modern high, and we saw nearly 200 fewer stolen bases that season. However, the drop in homers from 2017 to 2018 also saw steals decline by roughly 50. 

Most readers are done with draft season, unless you play under the old rules where you don't draft until after Opening Day. I am in one such league, as my final draft of the season is this coming Sunday. I do think it is helpful to look at the individual performances of some players over the past three springs under the new stolen base conditions to see what can be learned from previous performances and whether anything can be extrapolated at the player level, because many allow spring training performances to skew their draft valuations and planning.

Bryce Johnson went 12 for 12 in steals in 2023. Johnson is the spring steals champ over the past three seasons, but has has four major-league steals since this terrific spring and has played in three organizations in three seasons. He may pop up in Pittsburgh this season but will likely be running around the bases in Altoona most of the season.

Jose Siri went 10 for 11 in steals in 2023. Siri loved the new rules, but unfortunately the new rules did not allow him to steal first base and he went 12-of-15 in the regular season for Tampa Bay. Despite all his straight-line speed, Siri has never stolen more than 14 bases in a season because he has also never reached base even 27 percent of the time since becoming a regular major-league player. 

Caleb Durbin went 10-for-10 in steals in 2025. Durbin was perfect in the Cactus League, but was still optioned to Nashville in favor of an Oliver Dunn/Isaac Collins (or Vinny Capra?) platoon at third base to begin the season. It is unlikely that platoon holds Durbin off for long because Milwaukee knows what they have in the speedster, a player who was the centerpiece of the Devin Williams trade. Durbin, if you add this spring to what he did in the minors and the AFL last season, is 70 of his last 75 in stolen bases. We have already seen what Brice Turang can do with a license to run, and Durbin simply needs the opportunity to do the same. 

David Hamilton went 9-for-10 in steals in 2025. Kristian Campbell has been told he has earned a spot on the Opening Day roster, and one would assume he's not up to ride the bench. Alex Cora gave Campbell plenty of plate appearances (59) and he went .167/.305/.271 with a 30.5 percent strikeout rate in that time, with mixed reports on his defense. Hamilton, meanwhile, hit .260/.373/.440 in the same amount of plate appearances with a 20.3 percent strikeout rate. If Hamilton isn't the starter, he should at least be a utility infielder and will be ready to step in when Trevor Story gets injured again. Hamilton is 90-for-108 in steals since the start of the 2023 season, and this spring was just a reminder of what he can do with his speed when given the opportunity. After all, he was 33-of-37 just this past season in a mere 98 games.

Zac Veen went 9-for-10 in steals in 2025 and 8-for-9 in 2023. Veen has been the king of spring steals, as he has 21 steals over the past three springs but has not yet been awarded a promotion to Colorado. Veen does not yet have 100 plate appearances above Double-A in his career, and this spring didn't exactly lessen the concerns about his ability to make contact at the upper levels. The Rockies are going nowhere, so it would be fun to watch Veen sink or swim at the major-league level later this season once they clear some traffic out of his way. Trading Nolan Jones helped with some of that traffic, but the decision to add Nick Martini is a reminder why the Rockies are perpetually treading quicksand. 

Daulton Varsho went 8-for-8 in steals in 2024. Raise your hand if this one got you excited last spring. I can't be the only one who fell for this. Varsho went on to attempt 12 steals in the regular season, successfully stealing double-digit bases for a third consecutive season. Ironically, he didn't attempt a single steal this spring as he works his way back from shoulder surgery. 

Brandon Lockridge went 7-for-9 in steals in 2025. The Yankees were charitable in giving away speed, as Lockridge was acquired by the Padres in last July in the Enyel De Los Santos trade. Lockridge stole 40 bases in 2023 in the Yankees' system and 46 between the two organizations last season in 52 attempts. He appears to have made the Opening Day roster in an outfield situation which has the relics of Jason Heyward and Gavin Sheets as some of his top competitors. There is an opportunity here for mono-league managers. 

Brice Turang went 7-for-9 in steals in 2024. We knew Turang could run, as he stole 34 bases in 2022 and 28 in 2023, but last spring, he attempted nine steals in 17 games, which gave us a sign that perhaps Pat Murphy was going to let Turang take off at will. That's precisely what happened, as he attempted 56 steals in the regular season.

Tyler Tolbert went 7-for-7 in steals in 2025. This may be the only time Tolbert's name is ever linked in a story, but he has thrice swiped 50 bases in a minor-league season and fell just two short of doing it for four consecutive seasons in 2024. Tolbert may just be another version of the aforementioned Bryce Johnson, but Kansas City always seems to find a way to carry empty-bat speedsters. Tolbert was a non-roster invitee in camp this season and did well for himself. He's going to Triple-A Omaha, where he struggled mightily at the plate in 90 plate appearances last season, but mono-league managers can keep an eye on things should the Royals do a late-season Jarrod Dyson or Dairon Blanco-like thing with him.