Collette Calls: What's Wrong With Maeda?

To say the 2021 season is going poorly for the Twins would be an understatement. They have the worst record in the American League at 15-28, and can mostly thank a ghastly bullpen for many blown leads late in games. The starting rotation is not without fault, and none more so than near-Cy Young winner Kenta Maeda. Maeda went from unbelievable just a season ago to damn near unrosterable this year, forcing passionate Twins fans to ask:

Maeda has never struggled to this extent since coming to the majors in 2016. He has always had more than a strikeout per inning and controlled his walks while giving up a few homers above the league average. Last season, it all came together for him with a career-best strikeout rate, walk rate and ERA. If not for Shane Bieber's amazing numbers, Maeda would have won the Cy Young award last season. In the shortened season, Maeda featured his slider and splitter while dialing back the usage of his four-seamer that he used with the Dodgers. That mixture of pitches led to more career-best numbers in areas such as swings out of the zone, swinging strikes and called strikes + whiffs:

It is expected when someone takes such a step forward with their career that there will be some step back, but that was not noticeable in Maeda's ADP during draft season. It was hard to overlook all the red ink on his StatCast page from his 2020 resume:

Maeda was taken as high as 14th overall and as low as 88th in early March, but had an overall ADP of just less than 50 in 1,380 leagues:

Maeda's first 25 percent of the season has gone quite poorly with a 2-2 record, 5.26 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 14 percent K-BB% while allowing 1.9 home runs per nine innings and a .310 average against. I am not going to pretend that I am Derek Johnson and can study the available video and spot the problem with Maeda, but I can break down the available data and help you formulate your own opinion on how to proceed with Maeda. I'll present stats from his BaseballSavant page for the previous three seasons so we get a normal year, the shortened year and what is happening now. 

MLB Percentile Rankings

There is nothing in 2019 or 2020 that would serve as a warning sign to what we are seeing in 2021. The below-average Max Exit Velocity is not a surprise given Maeda does not throw hard, so mistakes could be smacked well. The true measure would be the hard-hit rate was elite, so when Maeda was not making a mistake, the hitters had a tough time squaring up his offerings. Each one of his 2020 percentiles was in the top 30th percentile while just two are in 2021. Do not kick yourself for not seeing this coming because nothing in this data set to proceed with extreme caution.

Pitch Distribution

Maeda was never a hard thrower, so him dialing back on the four-seamer once he left the Dodgers was part of his success last year. The slider and splitter have always been his best offerings, so using them more frequently this year as he is trying to dig out of his slump makes sense. The cutter made an appearance last year, but he threw it just 27 times so its disappearance this year should not really be looked into much as he still throws four distinct offerings to righties and five offerings to lefties. I do not see a problem with what he is doing here.

Pitch Tracking

The story holds true here as the 2020 expected stats did not point to anything being as problematic as things have been in 2021. If you are looking for some hope with Maeda, note the gaps in his actual outcomes versus his expected outcomes as things should be better with his slider, but that is counter balanced by the fact his splitter is simply not an effective pitch for him this year. The splitter's effectiveness is no doubt reduced by the poor performance of Maeda's fastball as the splitter tends to be a Remora to the shark of a four-seamer. One would hope that better execution with his four-seamer would then spill over to the splitter and allow Maeda to improve in a hurry. 

Plate Discipline

Here we see more of the problem for Maeda this year. Maeda does not have the stuff to live in the zone with regularity and is at his best when he throws perceived strikes that leave the zone on their journey to it. He has struggled to throw first-pitch strikes, and Maeda falls behind, he tends to lean on the underperforming slider this year to get back into the count:

A peek back up the article reminds us that opponents are hitting .308 off that slider and slugging .554 against it with 4 doubles and 4 home runs. The command of the pitch simply has not been as sharp as it was the previous two seasons. 

The 2019 heat map of his sliders:

The 2020 heat map of the slider:

The 2021 heat map of the slider:

When we think back to the earlier point where Maeda is living in the zone too frequently, this heat map accentuates that point. The slider is frequently living in the zone where it becomes a more hittable pitch as it can find more of the barrel of the bat. Maeda could get right in a hurry if he could get back to burying that slider in the corner of the zone with more regularity.

Perhaps the reported groin tightness Maeda has dealt with is to blame for recent outings, but he was cleared to pitch against Cleveland this weekend. Cleveland has not hit well this season, but it got to Maeda on April 27, hitting three home runs and plating five runs against the starter. Watch how Maeda executes his slider in his next start to see if something can change for him in the coming future. The slider sets up all his other offerings, and he needs to execute that pitch better so it is not living in the zone as frequently as it has most games in 2021. The expected stats say it should be better, but expected stats only tell you what has happened rather than what will happen.