This article is part of our DFS Baseball 101 series.
Two years ago, I began experimenting with home plate umpire statistics as a method to help make daily picks. The idea was based off the understanding that the men behind home plate have a great deal of control over the outcome of at-bats during a ballgame, as they can heavily influence the count on any given pitch.A good way to illustrate the importance of this is to look at the effect counts have on batting averages. Hitters who found themselves in a 2-1 count hit .335 in 2015, while those who were behind 1-2 hit just .167. With so much riding on each pitch, it behooves us to get to know our umpires in the hope that we can benefit from the way they call the zone.
Umpire statistics are available in-season on Statfox.com. A quick look at last year's umpire stats reveals several pieces of information to consider when targeting umpires. Data regarding over/under totals can be helpful in a general sense, but we will focus mainly on strikeouts, walks and runs per game. This will allow us to pair our DFS picks with umps who will mitigate out players' weaknesses, while enhancing their strengths.
For example, a pitcher like Tyson Ross piles up strikeouts but has a tendency to get into trouble due to his career 10 percent walk rate. As we scan the list of umpires, we see Mark Ripperger had the most strikeouts per game last season (17.07), while also boasting the fewest walks per game (4.36). This is a pretty good indication that Ripperger makes hitters swing the bat, which could allow Ross to get ahead of hitters more often than he might when dealing with someone who has a more neutral zone. Of course, we can run the experiment in reverse as well and search for an umpire who sees a lot of free passes, increasing the probability that the batters we select will reach base.
Here are the top-5 umpires from 2015 in strikeouts, walks and runs per game (minimum 20 games behind the plate).
| UMPIRE | K/GAME |
| Mark Ripperger | 17.07 |
| Bill Miller | 17.06 |
| Tim Timmons | 16.97 |
| Vic Carapazza | 16.97 |
| Ben May | 16.59 |
| UMPIRE | BB/GAME |
| Greg Gibson | 6.90 |
| Jeff Kellogg | 6.79 |
| Alan Porter | 6.69 |
| Mark Wegner | 6.55 |
| Andy Fletcher | 6.48 |
| UMPIRE | R/GAME |
| Manny Gonzalez | 10.21 |
| Jerry Meals | 9.97 |
| Laz Diaz | 9.97 |
| Eric Cooper | 9.86 |
| Andy Fletcher | 9.81 |
And here are the bottom-5 umpires from 2015 in strikeouts, walks and runs per game (minimum 20 games behind the plate).
| UMPIRE | K/GAME |
| Ed Hickox | 13.07 |
| Jeff Kellogg | 13.13 |
| Chris Guccione | 13.41 |
| Lance Barksdale | 13.73 |
| Tom Hallion | 13.77 |
| UMPIRE | BB/GAME |
| Mark Ripperger | 4.36 |
| Adam Hamari | 4.63 |
| Mike Muchlinski | 4.63 |
| Doug Eddings | 4.68 |
| Toby Basner | 4.86 |
| UMPIRE | R/GAME |
| Ben May | 6.59 |
| Toby Basner | 7.14 |
| Mike Muchlinski | 7.33 |
| Jordan Baker | 7.42 |
| Paul Nauert | 7.42 |
Unfortunately, Major League Baseball does not announce umpiring crews or home-plate umpires prior to a series. Umpires are revealed close to gametime of the series opener, which can make it difficult to employ this strategy on the first day of a series. (Perhaps beat writers will start Tweeting umpire lineups hours before first pitch the way they routinely Tweet team lineups.) For the remaining games in a series, umpires rotate clockwise around the bases, meaning the first-base ump for Game 1 of a series will be behind the plate in the second game, and so on. DFS players simply need to look at a boxscore from a series opener to capitalize on the home-plate umpires for the remaining games in a series.
Those interested in results stemming from this strategy, or the logic that can be used to choose players in this way, can check out my weekly column from last season. There won't be a similar article series this season (because of the lack of umpire schedules), but I will be incorporating the strategy in most DFS pieces I write, as it has become an integral part of my selection process.
In the battle of DFS, the player with the most information has a competitive advantage. Understanding the impact umpires have on the outcome of plate appearances allows us to target players who can help us win.
