I typically don't write Saturday articles, but I'm filling in here. It's a great time to play DFS because we only have two weeks remaining in the regular season. That has many of these teams playing pseudo-playoff games already, but it also has us dealing with some checked-out teams as well. Motivation is always one of the most challenging factors to figure out from a DFS standpoint, but it gets much easier at this time of the year. The contest kicks off at 7:10 EDT. With that in mind, let's get started with two pitchers in phenomenal spots.
Pitching
Bryan Woo, SEA vs. LAA ($10,600)
To say Woo has been consistent this season would be a drastic understatement. This righty has completed at least five innings in all 28 starts this year. He's not some empty inning-eater, though, tallying a 3.02 ERA and 0.95 WHIP this season. That's scary in a place like Seattle because Woo has a 2.60 ERA and 0.86 WHIP there over the last three years. It's not like facing an atrocious Angels lineup will stray us away, with LA ranked 22nd in wOBA, 28th in OBP and dead-last in K rate. In their last matchup, Woo scored 34 FanDuel points while entering this matchup a -230 favorite.
Dylan Cease, SD vs. COL ($9,600)
The baseline numbers from Cease are terrible this season, but this guy is too good to avoid in a matchup like this. Let's start there because the Rockies rank 29th or 30th in runs scored, OBP, xwOBA and K rate. Those numbers get even worse outside of Coors Field, with the Rockies scoring just eight runs across their last six fixtures! That's terrifying against a talented pitcher like this because Cease has a 3.68 career FIP and 29 percent K rate. He's also averaging 37 FanDuel points per game in his last four matchups with the Rockies and enters this matchup as a -375 favorite!
Top Targets
Julio Rodriguez, SEA (vs. Mitch Farris) $3,900
I haven't written many articles over the last month that didn't have J-Rod as one of our recommendations. His absurd second half shows why, as he sports a .969 OPS across his last 54 fixtures. He's also got a multi-hit game in three of his last four outings while having the platoon advantage against Farris here. This rookie lefty has posted a 2.45 ERA through two starts but is due for some negative regression, thanks to his 4.92 xFIP. Randy Arozarena ($3,500) is on pace for a 30-30 season, and also has the platoon advantage against Farris if you want to stack Seattle.
Elly De La Cruz, CIN (vs. Luis Severino) $3,800
The fact that many people are calling De La Cruz's season disappointing shows just how special this kid is. He's going to finish with at least 20 homers and 35 steals while hitting over .260. That's why he's been one of the best players in DFS since his call-up, but he's a different animal against right-handers. De La Cruz has a .362 OBP and .846 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor while recording almost all of his steals against them. That's massive in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball, especially since Severino has a 6.34 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in Sactown this season. If you want to stack Cincy in Sacramento, TJ Friedl ($3,000) and Austin Hays ($3,100) look like the best pairings with De La Cruz.
Bargain Bats
Jackson Merrill, SD (vs. Bradley Blalock) $3,000
Merrill was a top-50 pick in most season-long leagues, but he's been one of the biggest busts in the MLB. The good news is that we're playing DFS, and Merrill is showcasing why he was such a high selection. The outfielder has a .348 AVG and 1.245 OPS across his last six outings. More importantly, he has a .480 AVG and 1.300 OPS in seven games against the Rockies this year. That's no surprise since it's the worst pitching staff in baseball, but we'll discuss that more in the stacks section. Not to mention, Merrill has a .298 AVG and .859 OPS against righties throughout his career.
Max Muncy, LAD (vs. Logan Webb) $3,300
Many people might forget just how special Muncy was before he landed on the IL. This slugger got some specs after some early-season struggles, and it changed his whole season. Muncy has a .434 OBP and 1.065 OPS across his last 53 outings. That's the form we've become accustomed to, and he couldn't have a better lineup spot behind a laundry list of All-Stars. We'll talk about that more in the next section, but we can't overlook Muncy's .420 OBP and .957 OPS against right-handers this year. In 36 at-bats against Webb, Muncy has a .417 OBP and 1.084 OPS.
Stacks to Consider
San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies (Bradley Blalock): Fernando Tatis ($3,600), Manny Machado ($3,500), Ryan O'Hearn ($2,900) and Merrill ($3,000)
I can't believe I live in Colorado, and I have to recommend offenses against my hometown team in every article. That's just the nature of the beast, with the Rockies ranked last in ERA, WHIP and xwOBA. That becomes particularly horrifying here because Colorado is sending out one of their worst pitchers in baseball, with Blalock producing an 8.62 ERA and 1.79 WHIP.
Tatis has to be the first piece of a Padres stack. He's going to flirt with a 25-30 season while tallying a .869 OPS against the Rockies this year. Machado has been struggling, but he has a .826 career OPS against Colorado. O'Hearn should hit right behind these guys, generating a .365 OBP and .803 OPS in a career year.
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants (Logan Webb): Shohei Ohtani ($4,700), Freddie Freeman ($3,600), Mookie Betts ($3,700) and Muncy ($3,300)
The Dodgers are a safe stack against anyone, ranked top three in nearly every offensive category. Hitting in San Fran can be scary with how pitcher-friendly that park can be, but Webb was destroyed the last time he saw this potent lineup. He surrendered six runs in that dud and has now struggled in three of his last five starts against the Dodgers.
Shohei is one of the best options on every slate, posting a .418 OBP and 1.109 OPS against righties over the last three years. Freeman has similar splits, amassing a .395 OBP and .912 OPS in that same span. Betts got off to a slow start this season, but he's back to his MVP ways. Mookie has a .435 OBP and 1.149 OPS across his last 16 outings.
Try our FanDuel MLB Lineup Optimizer to discover more expert recommendations, customize the player pool, set exposure percentage and mass-enter DFS lineups.
