Draft Day Misses: Jose Abreu and Adolis Garcia

Full disclosure: I've come to the realization over the years that my multitude of fantasy rosters often lacks diversity. That can be a good thing when you hit on most of your guys, and I'm confident in my ability to identify those dudes more often than not.

The reality, though, is that you're going to have some misses. Some years you'll have more than others, and when lots of your rosters have those players in common, it can sting. Let's take a look at a couple guys I whiffed on this year.

Jose Abreu, 1B, Astros

I certainly wasn't alone in my fondness for Abreu in drafts this spring. Sure, the 15 home runs he hit in 2022 were a disappointment, but he was coming off a .304/.378/.446 slash line and his batted-ball data was just about as good as ever. Landing in Houston seemed almost too good to be true, as he would be joining a dynamic lineup and would get to benefit from the Crawford Boxes at Minute Maid Park.

A seven-homer September allowed Abreu to take a modest step forward in the home run department to finish with 18, but that did little to squash concerns about a 2023 season which was a major step back just about any way you slice it. The veteran first baseman finished with a .237/.296/.383 batting line, numbers which represented career lows across the board, and by wide margins. His OPS wound up at a lowly .680 after he came into the year with a career .860 mark.

A peek at Abreu's batted-ball data doesn't offer much promise, either. Here's a look at some of his year-over-year Statcast numbers, per Baseball Savant:

That's a lot of red followed by a lot of blue and gray.

An interesting thing to note regarding Abreu's plate discipline metrics was a major drop in how often he swung at the first pitch. He offered at the first pitch just 18.5 percent of the time in 2023, down from 23.7 percent in 2022 and 27.2 percent in 2021. And yet, his overall swing rate (50.1 percent) and chase rate (36.3 percent) were both way up, particularly the latter. Was it a new hitting philosophy Abreu was having trouble adjusting to in Houston following his long stint with the White Sox? Was he pressing in front of his new teammates while trying to justify a $58.5 million contract?

Abreu also might have played much of the season while compromised physically. He made a rare trip to the injured list in mid-August with a back issue which he admitted he first felt at the beginning of the season and again just before the All-Star break. He was given two cortisone injections and then proceeded to put up an .845 OPS with eight homers and 34 RBI over his final 31 regular-season games. Abreu has carried that over into the postseason, too, with three long balls and eight RBI in his first six contests.

Of course, we also must acknowledge that Abreu turns 37 in January and is coming off a down season in which he battled a back issue. His track record of health for the bulk of his career has been immaculate, but Father Time's track record is even more pristine.

Abreu will go into the 2024 season with the same excellent team context and should have more comfort in his surroundings in his second year in Houston. I don't know if that will be enough for him to experience a full rebound, but I do know his draft-day cost will probably be fairly minimal. I suspect he'll be a corner infielder on a few of my teams, but my leash for him will be much shorter this time around (and so might the Astros').

Adolis Garcia, OF, Rangers

The year is 2029. Garcia is coming off his eighth straight year as a top-20 fantasy outfielder but is once again being faded by the fantasy community.

My attempt at some cheeky humor aside, I should note that Garcia wasn't faded by everyone coming into the 2023 season. He was taken in the top five rounds of drafts pretty regularly. For me personally, though, I just couldn't get on board at that price, always finding someone I liked better in that range.

It wound up being the wrong call (again) on my part, of course. Garcia finished as a top-20 overall player, let alone outfielder, collecting a .245/.328/.508 batting line as he posted career highs in home runs (39), RBI (107) and runs (108) while adding nine stolen bases.

Late bloomers with terrible plate discipline are naturally going to draw skepticism, which is why Garcia's ADP has failed to match up with his production. Here's the thing, though. His plate discipline got better this season! Like, a lot better.

Yes, Garcia still struck out at a 27.7 percent rate, which is well below average even if it represents a personal improvement for a second straight year. However, he also upped his walk rate to 10.3 percent. That's an excellent mark for anyone, let alone a guy who came into the year with a career 5.6 percent walk rate. Also, check out the improvement in Garcia's chase rate via Baseball Savant:

Like his strikeout rate, Garcia's chase rate was still sub-par when compared to the rest of the league. That said, you can see it was a massive improvement from his previous efforts, and he greatly improved his selectivity while not compromising how hard he impacted the ball. The 30-year-old matched his average exit velocity from the previous year at 92.1 mph (91st percentile) while upping his hard-hit rate to 49.7 percent (92nd percentile) and seeing his barrel rate spike to 16.1 percent (96th percentile).

One area where Garcia dropped off was in the stolen base department, as he fell to nine thefts after swiping 25 bags the year prior. The slippage was even more stark when considering how stolen bases exploded under the new rules. Garcia's sprint speed also tumbled noticeably down to the 49th percentile. His speed has been going in the wrong direction each year, but this was the first time he was below league average. Considering Garcia will turn 31 in March, it's difficult to see this trend reversing.

I do find myself struggling to totally buy into Garcia's improved plate discipline. It's just not something that usually (ever?) happens for a guy in his age-30 season. The good news is he can afford some regression in the area and still be a very good roto option, particularly when factoring in his enviable team context. I'll have to wait and see what Garcia's draft-day cost winds up being before I decide whether I'm ready to pay full freight, but his viability can't be denied at this point.