This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
The vast majority of Saturday's schedule kicks off prior to 7:05 pm EDT, which is when the main slate is set to begin. That leaves us with only six games to work with, though there are still some interesting matchups to consider. Two of the more skilled pitchers available – Joe Musgrove and Julio Urias – will face each other as well as tough lineups. The decisions made about both pitchers and hitters in that game will be a key to Saturday night contests. We also have a game at Coors Field, another likely popular spot that could be a key decision point.
Pitchers
Zac Gallen ($10,500) has seen his strikeout rate slowly tick down toward his career norm, but he's still got a mark of 33.9 percent this season. He also has the lowest SIERA of available arms by nearly three-quarters of a run. That would likely be enough to make Gallen an appealing option regardless of matchup, but he also faces a Giants' offense that has struck out at the second-highest clip of any team during 2023.
Very little about Anthony DeSclafani's ($8,400) start to the season makes sense. In recent starts, he's shut down Houston and St. Louis while getting crushed by the Nationals. Over the course of the current campaign, DeSclafani has performed far better on the road than at home. That's not to say those results are predictive, but it shows the volatility and risk to his performance. In conclusion, DeSclafani represents a decent tournament option based on value and the likelihood most people take Gallen in the head-to-head matchup – and leave the Giants' starter under-rostered.
The matchup between the Dodgers and Padres will be key to the slate, as already mentioned. In the battle between Urias and Joe Musgrove ($7,800), I'll side with the latter due to the significant difference in salary. Musgrove has made three starts this season and has piled up 17.1 and 18.3 DK points in two of those. If he can deliver that type of performance, he's a great selection.
There aren't any standout options below Musgrove's value point, but if I was forced to pick one, it would be Adrian Houser ($6,600). He offers very little upside, but worked 4.2 innings in his first outing of the year and should have a strong chance to earn a win against the Royals. At Houser's salary, five innings and a win is likely to provide decent value.
Top Bats
The value point of Luis Robert ($4,500) is curious. He's averaged over 12 DK points in his last 10 matchups and has been one of the few bright spots for the club in 2023. On Saturday, he draws a matchup against Brandon Bielak, who's endured a significant walk and homer problem throughout his big-league career.
There hasn't been much attention paid to Nick Castellanos ($4,900) early this season, but he's quietly bounced back. He's got the advantage of Coors Field for the weekend series and will face Ryan Feltner. The pitcher has had productive moments this year, but has also allowed at least four earned runs in three of seven appearances.
Value Hitters
Ezequiel Tovar ($2,900) got off to an ugly start to his rookie campaign, but has averaged 9.0 DK points across his last 10 games and will get the benefit of Coors Field Saturday against Ranger Suarez in his season debut.
Given the short slate, we'll have to move away from obvious values based on matchup to simply bet on talent. Miguel Vargas ($2,600) becomes a solid selection as he's slugged .595 over 10 outings where he's averaged 10.5 DK points. Even in a matchup against Musgrove, he's a solid option at this salary.
Stacks to Target
Orioles vs. Pirates (Roansy Contreras): Cedric Mullins ($5,000), Adley Rutschman ($4,800), Anthony Santander ($4,100)
Contreras hasn't allowed many home runs this season, but otherwise his skills have been what we look for when combining hitters - more specifically, his 7.2 K-BB% and 5.20 SIERA, both second-worst among the pitchers taking the mound Saturday night. From the stack perspective, Baltimore has been a great lineup built around the ability to make contact while also showing some pop (.164 ISO). There are several different ways to stack this lineup, but even the projected first three in the order (highlighted above) check in at a fairly reasonable salary.
Brewers vs. Royals (Zack Greinke): Christian Yelich ($4,600), Willy Adames ($4,300), Rowdy Tellez ($4,300)
Greinke is a pitcher we should target because he gives up so much contact and enters Saturday with only a 15.3 percent strikeout rate. The stack above is fairly straightforward, as it lists the top of the lineup and the most potent hitters on the Brewers' roster. Jesse Winker ($2,800) is a value option so long as he continues to inexplicably bat second in the order against righties. It's hard to make the case for him based on skills and results, but his value point has fallen to where he's worth a flyer.
