DraftKings MLB: Tuesday Breakdown

DraftKings MLB: Tuesday Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.

MLB's Tuesday schedule features 16 games, including a doubleheader between the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, but just 11 of those games are included on DraftKings' main slate. The first game of that doubleheader will be excluded, as will the four that start at 6:40 p.m. or 6:45 p.m. EDT. The remaining games offer a fairly deep group of playable pitching options, though there aren't too many starters who you'll want to completely avoid using any hitters against.

Pitchers

Luis Castillo, SEA at OAK ($9,100): Four pitchers carry higher price tags than Castillo on this slate, but I think I like the Mariners righty more than any of them. A big part of that comes from his matchup, as he'll face the league's third-worst lineup by team wRC+ and will do so at the league's second-best pitcher's park per Statcast's runs park factor. That's not to discount the value that Castillo himself brings to any given outing regardless of context. He's been elite in eight starts since joining Seattle, riding a 30.3 percent strikeout rate and a 5.6 percent walk rate to a 2.37 ERA.

Patrick Sandoval, LAA at TEX ($7,400): Sandoval is my favorite of the handful of playable mid-priced pitchers on this slate. While his underlying numbers don't quite back up his 2.99 ERA, he's still quite fairly-priced for a pitcher with a 3.19 FIP and 3.67 xFIP. Both his strikeout rate (23.6 percent) and groundball rate (46.8 percent) have been above-average this season, just as they were in two of his previous three campaigns. He also hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in any of his last eight starts, a streak which should continue against a mediocre lineup at a park that's not too tough to pitch in.

Austin Voth, BAL vs. DET ($6,700): Voth is the cheapest pitcher I'd be comfortable including, but I'm more comfortable with him than you might expect given his career 4.90 ERA. Much of that confidence of course stems from the fact that he's facing a team that ranks last by team wRC+. Voth himself has been surprisingly effective since joining the Orioles this season, posting a 2.78 ERA, though his underlying numbers add up to a less exciting 3.74 FIP and 4.29 xFIP. I wouldn't expect a ton of whiffs from a pitcher who owns a 20.5 percent strikeout rate on the year, but he's been more than competent enough to justify this low price tag against such a poor lineup.

Top Targets

Rostering hitters against a team employing a bullpen day like the Brewers are doing Tuesday is typically a good idea, as bullpen days often involve the team's weakest relievers pitching multiple innings. It can be difficult to figure out which handedness to focus on when you don't know how the bullpen day will play out, but selecting a switch hitter like Francisco Lindor ($5,800) gets around that problem. Lindor has a barely discernible career platoon split, posting a 121 wRC+ against lefties and a 117 wRC+ against righties. He's also been on fire over his  last 12 games, hitting .304/.350/.554 with three homers.

If you want to avoid the crowd that will inevitably surround Aaron Judge, or if you simply can't afford him, Anthony Rizzo ($5,400) offers a great way to grab a piece of the Yankees' lineup. Rizzo missed the first 17 days of September due to a head injury but returned to go 3-for-6 with  a homer Sunday against the Brewers. The 33-year-old has enjoyed the short porch in Yankee Stadium, as his 31 homers on the season are just one shy of his career high. He could hit his 32nd homer Tuesday against Luis Ortiz, who threw 5.2 scoreless innings in his MLB debut last week against the Reds but spent the bulk of the season at Double-A Altoona, where he posted a 4.64 ERA.

Bargain Bats

Vinnie Pasquantino ($2,700) remains the most mispriced player available, and I'm going to continue targeting him heavily as long as that's the case. Even looking at only his surface-level .266/.352/.429 slash line (121 wRC+), his price tag is hard to understand, but there's good reason to believe he's performed better than that line indicates. The only other hitters (minimum 200 plate appearances) with a double-digit barrel rate and a strikeout rate below 15 percent this season are Juan Soto and Freddie Freeman, and Pasquantino has struck out less frequently than either of them. Toss in the fact that he'll get the platoon advantage against Dylan Bundy, proud owner of a 4.68 ERA and a 16.2 percent strikeout rate, and it's hard to look elsewhere.

A midseason move to Atlanta seems to have fixed Robbie Grossman ($2,500), who produced a .595 OPS with the Tigers prior to the trade but a .746 OPS since. He's hit the ball particularly well across his last nine games, slashing .357/.419/.750 with three homers. The switch-hitting outfielder becomes far more interesting whenever he faces a lefty, as he owns a career .795 OPS against southpaws compared to a modest .700 OPS against righties. When the lefty in question is Patrick Corbin, who owns a 6.11 ERA this season and a 5.73 ERA over the last three years, Grossman becomes hard to pass up, even if he bats ninth.

Stacks to Consider

Giants vs. Kyle Freeland: Thairo Estrada ($4,300), Austin Slater ($3,500), J.D. Davis ($3,300)

The Giants' lineup is typically fairly interesting in daily fantasy, as the team employs several hitters whose modest overall numbers drive down their price tags but who crush a particular handedness of pitcher. Of course, any lineup becomes interesting at Coors Field, though you won't often find one with as many affordable options as the Giants provide. Freeland shouldn't provide much of a roadblock, as he's recorded his typically low strikeout rate (16.8 percent) this season but is no longer making up for it with a high groundball rate, as his 42.1 percent mark in that category this season is a hair below league average.

You could go in many directions with this stack, as the Giants will roll out a collection of similarly decent bats. The three I've chosen here have all been well-above average against southpaws this season, and none will cost all that much. Estrada owns a 132 wRC+ against lefties, Slater a 133 wRC+ and Davis a 126 wRC+, with all three being at least 20 points worse against right-handers.

Angels vs. Cole Ragans: Mike Trout ($6,400), Luis Rengifo ($4,200), Taylor Ward ($3,900)

This would be the stack I'm most excited for on most slates, and it's one I'd be very happy to prioritize if I wanted to avoid the Coors Field crowd. Ragans simply hasn't shown anything to get remotely excited about through his first six major-league starts, struggling to a 5.68 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. He's struck out just 14.9 percent of opposing batters while walking 12.3 percent. The young southpaw didn't rank particularly highly on prospect lists, and while he did produce a 3.32 ERA and 27.0 percent strikeout rate for Triple-A Round Rock this season, that came in just eight starts.

We'll want to prioritize the righties against Ragans, though Shohei Ohtani ($6,400) is presumably still playable if you can somehow find a way to fit in both him and Trout. The right-handed Trout is the more obvious pick to start this stack, however, and he's fully justified his expensive price tag, posting a .984 OPS on the year and a 1.028 OPS in the second half. Rengifo slots in at second or third base and is breaking out in his fourth big-league season, posting a 113 wRC+ after struggling to a 67 wRC+ in his first three campaigns. Ward is someone who I'm very happy to see at this affordable price. He wasn't able to maintain his early-season dominance, but he's gotten some of it back recently, hitting .347/.393/.467 across his last 21 games.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Erik Halterman plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: ehalt, FanDuel: ehalt.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Erik Halterman
Erik Halterman is the Features Editor for RotoWire. He also co-hosts RotoWire Fantasy Baseball on SiriusXM's MLB Network Radio.
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