DraftKings MLB: Weekend Value Plays

DraftKings MLB: Weekend Value Plays

This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.

Welcome to the first DraftKings MLB weekend article of the 2015 season, as we head into each team's second series of the year.

We'll have some aces back on the mound by Saturday and Sunday, but Friday's slate is full of back-of-the-rotation starters, which should lead to some high-scoring games. While April is typically not a friendly month for batters, most of this weekends' series feature the team with the more hitter-friendly ballpark playing at home.

As always, there are a few things we need to pay extra attention to in April that won't be as big of factors later in the season. Namely, postponements due to weather, given that a disproportionate amount of MLB's rainouts occur within the first few weeks of the season. Also, there are some hurlers who won't yet be allowed to hit their typical pitch count, though that wasn't much of a problem for Matt Harvey on Thursday.

In any case, I should have more to offer as the season moves along, but for now, let's get down to the player recommendations. Keep in mind that all prices are for Friday, as I don't have access to the Saturday and Sunday prices at the time of writing.

Pitchers

Collin McHugh, HOU (Fri. afternoon at TEX), $7,000 – There aren't exactly top-notch pitching options Friday afternoon, but McHugh has the highest upside of the bunch, even when playing at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. While he probably won't match the excellent rate numbers from his rookie year, the 27-year-old is easily the best strikeout artist on the early slate. This Rangers lineup isn't the injury-marred disaster it was last season, but it's still much worse than what we saw in the previous few years.

Mike Fiers, MIL (Fri. night vs. PIT), $8,300 – The Brewers' fourth and fifth starters may end up being the two best members of the rotation, which probably can't be said for any other team in the league. I also like Jimmy Nelson ($6,900) on Saturday, but Fiers is the real gem for this upcoming weekend. While there are admittedly some interesting cheap options for Friday night, Fiers and Gio Gonzalez ($9,100 at PHI) are far ahead of the other pitchers and should be worth the higher price tags.

David Price, TB (Sat. afternoon at CLE), $10,400 – I hate to recommend all of the more expensive pitchers, but the talent gap between Price and the other options is massive, while the price gap is actually quite reasonable. Until the prices for some of these aces start to rise, it'll be hard to justify going against them. Price was fantastic in his first start, striking out five Twins over 8.2 innings of shutout ball, with five hits allowed and zero walks.

Madison Bumgarner, SF (Sat. night at SD), $9,500 – Another underpriced ace, only this one gets to make his next start in one of baseball's most pitcher-friendly parks, albeit against a much-improved San Diego lineup that features some big right-handed bats. Still, there's no need to overthink this one, as Bumgarner for $9,500 is a steal in pretty much any matchup.

Bartolo Colon, NYM (Sun. at ATL), $6,900 – Finally, a cheaper guy who I'll happily recommend, as Colon gets to face the feeble Atlanta lineup, and his price seems at least a few hundred dollars too low. He's obviously not the first guy you think of when targeting upside, but even Colon can put up a huge game when he gets to face a lineup like Atlanta's. While I actually haven't gotten around to it thus far, I imagine I'll frequently pick on the Braves' offense this season.

Tyson Ross, SD (Sun. vs. SF), $8,300 – It comes as no surprise that many of the 2014 breakout stars carry favorable prices to open the season, as some of those guys will inevitably regress in a big way. Ross shouldn't be in much danger of falling victim to that fate, given his excellent peripherals from 2014, along with his similar numbers in a smaller sample size the previous year. The Giants should do just fine for themselves at the plate this season, but Ross will likely get to face a weakened version of the lineup that doesn't have Hunter Pence (arm) and Brandon Belt (groin).

Hitters

C Jonathan Lucroy, MIL (vs. PIT), $4,600 – Tiny sample sizes always seem to draw more attention at the beginning of the season, making this the perfect time to target a guy like Lucroy, who is 28 years old with a track record beyond reproach. There's no need to worry about an 0-for-12 start, especially in the wake of his impressive spring, not to mention the last three seasons. More importantly, the All-Star catcher has a home series that includes some favorable matchups, with the Pirates trotting out a pair of lefties (Jeff Locke and Francisco Liriano) sandwiched around a very hittable right-hander (Vance Worley). Brewers stacks are always popular, and there's no need to run away from them because of a surprisingly slow start.

1B Albert Pujols, LAA (vs. KC), $4,200 – I'm a big fan of most of the key Halos this weekend, with the Royals tossing Jason Vargas (Fri.), Hector Santiago (Sat.) and Yordano Ventura (Sun.) in Anaheim. It's disappointing that we can't roster both Pujols and C.J. Cron ($3,500) for those matchups against southpaws Friday and Saturday, but the Angels should still offer plenty of value up-and-down the lineup. While obviously not the player he once was, Pujols probably shouldn't be the 17th-most expensive first baseman for a 10-game slate, as is the case Friday.

2B Jose Altuve, HOU (at TEX), $4,800 – The Astros are another slow-starting team that's worth targeting, as their first series of the season was a tough one for a lineup that's so prone to striking out. This upcoming series in Arlington appears much more favorable, and the Astros have a bunch of players capable of putting together monster games. Derek Holland ($6,900) figures to be a popular pitching option Friday afternoon, and while I admittedly think the lefty is a solid choice, there's also a lot of potential with the right-handed Houston bats. If you plan on using multiple GPP lineups, go ahead and throw Holland in one and the Altuve-George Springer-Chris Carter trio in the other. Evan Gattis ($4,400) and Jed Lowrie ($4,200) are also options, but Altuve is the cream of the crop.

2B/SS Jose Ramirez, CLE (vs. DET), $3,600 – Ramirez hit second in the lineup both Wednesday and Thursday, going 2-for-4 with a home run and two stolen bases. This is kind of the perfect storm for a guy to be such a popular choice that you're better off fading, which means Ramirez is probably best saved for cash games and Indians stacks. Then again, I think I'm way more optimistic than the average fantasy player when it comes to the 22-year-old's 2015 prospects, so maybe I'm overestimating how popular he will be.

SS Jimmy Rollins, LAD (at ARI), $4,200 – This is an ideal weekend to target Rollins, with the Dodgers facing thee manageable right-handed pitchers in a hitter-friendly ballpark. The price is also quite reasonable, and I don't think Rollins will be quite as popular of a choice as he should be. Assuming the price stays in this range, the long-time Philly is my favorite batter at any position for the upcoming weekend.

3B Evan Longoria, TB (at MIA), $4,500 – Longoria is one of the more obvious candidates to have a big bounce-back season, and his price reflects some of the 2014 disappointment. Also, he draws some pretty good matchups this weekend, facing Dan Haren, Jarred Cosart and Henderson Alvarez.

OF Dexter Fowler, CHC (at COL), $5,400 – While this may seem like a high price for a player of Fowler's caliber, the 29-year-old outfielder should be worth every penny this weekend at Coors Field. I try to avoid visiting players in their first game of a series at Coors, but Fowler is still worth a look for Friday's matchup against Tyler Matzek. While not a guy with extreme splits most seasons, Fowler does have a better overall track record from the right side of the plate, with the gap more pronounced last season.

OF Mike Trout, LAA (vs. KC), $5,100 – I hate that Trout's always such a popular choice unless he's facing a true ace, but it's still impossible to ignore this combination of price and matchup. As I previously said, the Angels are one of the top teams to target this weekend, and Trout will likely be leading the way. He's oddly just the fifth-most expensive outfield-eligible player on Friday night's slate, trailing Giancarlo Stanton ($5,800), Carlos Gomez ($5,600), Hanley Ramirez ($5,200) and Andrew McCutchen ($5,200).

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jerry Donabedian plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: jd0505, DraftKings: jd0505.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jerry Donabedian
Jerry was a 2018 finalist for the FSWA's Player Notes Writer of the Year and DFS Writer of the Year awards. A Baltimore native, Jerry roots for the Ravens and watches "The Wire" in his spare time.
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