This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous day: 4-2, +1.18 RWBucks
Season: 76-94-4, -27.79 RWBucks
For reasons not worth digging into, I am pushing the season-to-date breakdown to later this week. I'm not running from accountability so much as rescheduling it, like it's a dentist appointment or a third date.
We're past the halfway point of the season, which is pretty much the time to let go of preseason evaluations and make picks based on teams' 2021 performance. Leave the Twins behind. Trust the Giants. Stop thinking any pitcher named "Keller" is worth backing. Accept that the Yankees can't hit very well. We have three months' worth of evidence, which is more than we had in 2020, and clinging to priors is an excellent way to lose a lot of money. Stubbornness has long been a problem for me, and not just in sports evaluation. It is one of the hardest things for me, to admit I had something wrong and act on the new information.
These picks tonight reflect a lot of time spent, over the holiday weekend, cleaving myself from my preseason evaluations and seeing the 30 teams, the 1000-odd players, as what they are now. That doesn't mean we'll get them all right, to be sure, just that the methodology, the process, has changed. Let's fire up the DraftKings app and see what opportunities are there. Despite a full slate of games, it's not a great card tonight.
7 p.m. Braves (Ian Anderson)/Pirates (Chad Kuhl) under 9.0 (-114).
The Pirates have been a terrible offensive team for a while, a tick worse than that over the last 30 days. The Braves started strong; the injury to Marcell Ozuna was a tipping point. The Braves have been a middle-of-the-pack offense over the last month, without Ozuna and Travis d'Arnaud and with both Austin Riley and Dansby Swanson struggling, and a big fat zero coming from d'Arnaud's replacements. The 9 here is generous. 1.5 RWBucks.
7 p.m. Brewers (Brett Anderson)/Mets (Jacob deGrom) under 7 (-117).
Citi Field is playing as the best pitchers' park in baseball this season. In 28 games at Citi scheduled for nine innings, the teams have combined for seven runs or fewer on 21 occasions. Josh Hader hasn't pitched in a week, Devin Williams hasn't pitched since July 1, so in a close game, the Brewers will have their best relievers ready. 1.5 RWBucks.
8 p.m. Twins (Jose Berrios) +102 over White Sox (Carlos Rodon)
The White Sox offense, already reeling from the loss of three starters, is now down a fourth, as Yasmani Grandal left the game last night with a strained left calf. It's probably too late for the Twins, my biggest miss this year, to get back into the AL Central race. It's not too late for them to take some games against a weakened Sox team. 1 RWBuck.
