This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Picks for Friday, July 19
After a 5-day break for the All-Star Game and the home run derby MLB resumes the remainder of the regular season schedule tonight. The time off gave me some extra time to run a few MLB database queries that provided a glimpse of what to expect by the start of the playoffs.
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Do Teams With 60+ Wins Through July Make the Playoffs?
The Phillies were the first team to 60 wins when they defeated the Dodgers 5-1 on July 11 and completed a 3-game sweep of the second-best record team in the National League. Since MLB expanded the playoffs with three Wild Card berths in 2012 every team that was the first to 60 wins made the playoffs and all but one team, the Oakland A's in 2014, won their respective division crown.
There have been 57 teams since 2012 that had won 60 or more games by the end of July and 54 of them were in the playoffs. Currently, the Phillies are the only team with 60 or more wins, but it is reasonable to assume that the Orioles (58 wins), the Yankees (58 wins), the Guardians (58 wins), the Dodgers (56 wins), the Brewers (55 wins) will all make it to 60 wins by the end of July. That implies that 6 of the 12 playoff teams will be these six teams.
Which Teams Are in the Wild Card Race?
The Wild Card race in each league is a hotly contested situation for many teams as we get closer to the trade deadline. In the AL there are six teams within 5.5 games of earning one of the three wild card berths. However, in the NL wild-card standings, 10 of the 12 teams not leading their division are within 6 games of a wild-card berth, which will make for an extremely entertaining finish to the regular season.
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The Bets to Make for the Orioles vs Rangers
The Orioles lead the AL East Division by a single game over their rival Yankees, who had led the division for most of the season. The Yankees are just 4-8 in July and a horrid 8-18 (26%) since June 15. The Orioles have gone just 13-14, but have made up 4.5 games in the standings and are the team to beat in the division and the AL.
The Rangers are 8-4 in July but are still a losing record team at 46-50 and trail the AL West division-leading Mariners by five games. Fair to say that only the division champion in the AL West will make the playoffs. So, the Rangers have their work cut out for them if they are going to defend their World Series Championship.
What are the Betting Odds for Rangers vs Orioles?
The betting community sees the Orioles priced as –122 favorites at BetRivers over the Rangers, priced best as 115 underdogs at BetMGM. The total for the game is priced at 8.5 runs.
Who Are the Starters?
The Orioles will have Corbin Burnes on the hill, who is coming off a loss last Wednesday to the Cubs but that was just his second loss in his last 11 starts. Coming out of the break he is 9-4 with a terrific 2.43 ERA, 1.04 WHIP including 110 strikeouts, just 25 walks spanning 118 2/3 innings of work.
The Rangers will have Nathan Eovaldi on the hill, who is on pace for a career year posting a 6-3 record with a solid 2.93 ERA, and 1.04 WHIP including 92 strikeouts spanning 94 innings of work. The 34-year-old started his MLB career at 21 and has made 262 starts posting a 4.03 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP including 1,284 strikeouts and 429 walks spanning 1,495 2/3 innings of work. Despite these strong performance stats this season, my predictive models don't see him completing 6 innings tonight.
The MLB Betting Algorithm for Friday
The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 321-181 record for 64% winning bets that have averaged a –127-favorite bet using the money line resulting in a highly profitable 16% ROI and a $85,840 profit for the Dime Bettor since 2004. The requirements are:
- Bet on road favorites priced at not more than –180 using the money line.
- That team is on a minimum of a one-game win streak.
- The game is not a divisional matchup.
- The opponent is coming off a win.
If the opponent has a losing record and the game occurs after the all-star break these favorites improve to an 87-41 record for 68% winning bets averaging a –135-favorite resulting in a highly profitable 21.4% ROI and a $31,550 profit for the Dime Bettor. This supports a strong betting opportunity on the Orioles.
From my predictive model, The Orioles are 36-11 (77%) when facing a starter that completes fewer than 6 innings of work, and their offense posts at least 1 multiple-run inning in games played this season. The Rangers are 11-30 (27%) in games that their starter completes fewer than six innings and the opponent has at least one multiple-run-inning in games played this season.
My best bet is on the Orioles priced as –122 favorites using the money line.
