This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets and Expert Picks for
Friday, July 5
In my last MLB sports betting article, I highlighted the problems embedded in the Yankees' roster and did not expect them to bounce back from a 2-8 stretch. I was on the Reds all three games in their dominating sweep of the Yankees, and the Reds are a team I detailed why they are a great bet to win the most games in July. Betting the Reds to make the playoffs is also very attractive currently.
MLB fans: Get in on the action at BetMGM with the BetMGM bonus code for a first-bet bonus welcome offer worth up to $1,500 when using code ROTOBONUS. BetMGM is one of several leading sportsbooks that accept credit card and PayPal.
The Best Bets for the Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
The reeling Yankees will host their dreaded rival Red Sox in a three-game series starting tonight at Yankee Stadium and set for the first pitch at 7:05 p.m. ET. The Yankees are priced as –140 favorites with a posted total of 8.0 runs.
The Yankees are 2-8 over their last 10 games and now trail the AL East division-leading Baltimore Orioles by two games. They are in a solid position to make the playoffs but currently are playing poorly in all facets of the game. The great hitting by Aaron Judge during his hot streak masked the significant flaws in the Yankees lineup and when he cooled so did the team.
The Red Sox are the surprise team in the AL and the AL East Division, sporting a 47-39 record and trailing the Orioles by 7.5 games in the division standings. They are on a four-game win streak and have won seven of their last 10 games.
Baseball fans present in the Tar Heel State can claim thousands of dollars in bonuses with North Carolina betting promos this baseball season now that North Carolina sports betting is officially live. The Caesars Sportsbook North Carolina promo code gets new customers $250 in bonus bets after making an initial wager of at least $10.
Who are the Starters?
The Red Sox have their best starter on the hill tonight in Tanner Houck, who is 7-6 with an outstanding 2.67 ERA (sixth lowest) and a 1.02 WHIP (15th best), including 105 strikeouts (18th most). He is one of just 20 starters with an ERA of 3.00 or lower in MLB this season. In a touch of irony, I like the Red Sox even more with Houck coming off his worst start of the season in which he allowed seven ER in an 11-1 team loss to the Padres. The best MLB starters have short memories and can put both great and bad starts behind them with a 100-percent mental focus on the out facing them right now. I fully expect Houck to pitch very well against an undisciplined Yankees lineup that you will see chase his offerings that are out of the strike zone.
The current members of the Yankees who have faced Houck previously have done poorly, batting just .173 in 52 at-bats with just one home run allowed to Gleyber Torres. Of note is the 0-for-11 hitless streak facing Houck by DJ LeMahieu.
The Yankees are countering with Nestor Cortes, who is 4-7 with a 3.51 ERA (39th best) and a 1.10 WHIP (22nd best), including 98 strikeouts (30th most). He has pitched better at Yankee Stadium, going 4-3 with a 1.84 ERA in nine starts, but has allowed five home runs in 58 innings of work.
The Betting Algorithm of the Day
The following betting algorithm has gone 70-36-5 for 66-percent winning Under bets over the past 20 seasons. The requirements are:
Bet the Under with a road dog in the first game of series.
That road dog is facing the NY Yankees.
Our road dog is coming off a win.
If our road dog is coming into the Yankees series on a two-or-more-game win streak they have gone 30-36 (46 percent), averaging a 158-underdog bet resulting in a 16-percent ROI. If our dog is coming in on a four-or-more-game win streak they have done quite well going 10-8 (56 percent) resulting in a 33-percent ROI.
My Best Bet for Friday is on the Boston Red Sox.
Stay up to date on the best MLB picks and props every day of the season using RotoWire's props tool. Looking to sign up at a new sportsbook? There are thousands of dollars in bonus bets up for grabs when you take advantage of the best sportsbook promo codes available on the best sports betting apps.
