Farm Futures: Holiday Prospect Mailbag!

First, thanks for all the nice messages in responses to my call for questions, I could definitely feel the holiday cheer. For the vast majority of the prospects I'll discuss, I've written their outlooks on RotoWire and the RotoWire 2025 MLB Draft Kit app. If you want more detail about a player's tools and outlook for 2025, I recommend checking out their outlooks on their player pages in advance of the big prospect rankings update Jan. 15.

Bobmay: It looks like Matt Shaw (CHC) has moved up your rankings. Do you expect him to be the Opening Day 3B for the Cubs? Any other big movers in your prospect or dynasty rankings since your last update?

Bob is referencing a post I made in the Discord room about where Roki Sasaki will slot into my top 400, and I said this is what the top six would look like if I published the list today:

1. Sebastian Walcott, SS, TEX

2. Roman Anthony, OF, BOS

3. Jasson Dominguez, OF, NYY

4. Kristian Campbell, 2B, BOS

5. Roki Sasaki, RHP, F.A.

6. Matt Shaw, SS/3B/2B, CHC

Shaw was in a big tier from 4 to 13 or so, and he moves up from 12 to 6 now that there are no concerns about his path to playing time. Campbell and Shaw both jump over Leodalis De Vries (SD) and Walker Jenkins (MIN) -- I just can't honestly say that if I were in a startup draft I'd take the proximity hit and select De Vries or Jenkins over Campbell/Shaw, even if De Vries/Jenkins have a little more upside.

As for any other big movers/risers, Zyhir Hope (LAD) into the top 15, Cam Collier (CIN) into the top 30, Sean Burke (CHW) into the top 50, Michael McGreevy (STL) into the top 75 are some other notable risers in the top 100.

Misterbaseball: How many at-bats do Kristian Campbell (BOS) and Matt Shaw (CHC) get in 2025? What are your projections for both players?

I expect Shaw to be the Cubs' Opening Day third baseman, so he could push north of 600 PAs with good health and steady performance. I'd project him for around 525 PA, 14-18 HR, 15-25 SB, and around a .245 average. He should hit closer to .270-.275 at peak, but he's a worse prospect and worse hitter than Wyatt Langford a year ago and Langford only hit .253 as a rookie.

Campbell may hit for a slightly higher average as a rookie -- maybe .250-.260, but I think he'll run less, maybe 10-15 steals and 12-18 home runs if he were up all season. The Red Sox seem to have some work left to do this offseason with trades to clear up the roster a little, but I expect Campbell to have a legitimate chance to win the starting second base job in spring training. Given the uncertainty with his situation compared to Shaw's, I'll project Campbell for more like 450 PAs.

Mike Gavin: How much should Matt Shaw (CHC) rise in ADP vs how much will he? I saw someone post they took him in the 4th round....

The highest he's been taken in an NFBC draft over the last 10 days is 190, and I just completed a Holiday fast Draft Champions this past weekend, hosted by Mike The Mouth Massotto, where Shaw went 245. I understand the excitement, as Shaw has an outside chance to go 20/20 at third base as a rookie, but that's his absolute ceiling, and his floor includes unforeseen struggles in the majors and a demotion to Triple-A. For what it's worth, I already had two third basemen (Manny Machado and Mark Vientos) and wasn't interested in adding a third with that high of a pick. In the last eight drafts, here are the 3B who always last past pick 100:

I'd definitely take Alex Bregman and Luis Rengifo over Shaw. Eugenio Suarez, Alec Bohm and Isaac Paredes all represent floor plays opposite Shaw's ceiling -- with those calls I think your build prior to that decision matters quite a bit. I'd definitely take Shaw over Maikel Garcia, Josh Jung and Nolan Arenado.

Inthedugout: Dying to know about Coby Mayo (BAL) and what the heck happened this year...

He just got overmatched in the majors and then he got in his head and started pressing really hard. Mayo played three days in a row when he first got the call at the beginning of August and then didn't start on consecutive days again until his second stint in mid-September. I don't think Mayo is going to hit for a great average or OBP in 2025, although I think he could hit 20-plus home runs. However, I do think Mayo will be a strong buy heading into 2026, when he could have a clearer role heading into spring training and a better chance of jumping as a pure hitter from say .235 to .255.

Paulmax: What do you think Shohei Ohtani's pitching line looks like in 2025? I have him in a daily lineup league, so I can switch him between UT and P.  My staff looks pretty decent if he can be counted on as a top 10-15 SP, but I'm nervous he won't get a lot of innings, since the Dodgers won't need to push him...

I buy the 139 innings Steamer has him projected for. He probably won't make a start in early-April, but they'll pitch him in a six-man rotation once he's ready. I think we've seen with Ohtani that he's so competitive he'll work as hard as he can to get back as soon as he can. Can he be a top 10-15 SP at 139 innings? Unlikely but not impossible, and he'll pitch like a top-15 SP on a per-start basis.

Camposite: Are there any buy-low candidates in dynasty that you're particularly keen on? I'm thinking a Nolan Jones, Trevor Story type, someone who could make a significant impact if they return to previously shown production levels?

My buy-low targets are usually pre-breakout guys, or guys I expect to take another leap beyond what we've already seen. I don't mind Jones as a buy-low. I'm less bullish on Story given his age and injury history. 

Masyn Winn, Tyler Soderstrom, Andy Pages, Jhonkensy Noel, Jonny DeLuca are some position players I'd be interested in buying this offseason in dynasty, under the premise they'll be more valuable in late May than they are now.

Paulmax: Are you buying a Gavin Williams breakout or should I trade him while he still has value?

Dave and I didn't mention Williams on our injury avoid podcast last week, but Williams fastball velocity (96.6 mph average) and recent arm trouble (missed three months with elbow injury last year) put him in a very high-risk bin for me. I like Williams' skills and potential quite a bit, and the price tag (mid-200s ADP) is reasonable, but just for 2025 I'd rather go with Jesus Luzardo, Frankie Montas or Nestor Cortes.

Dave Brown: How would you rank Grayson Rodriguez, Shane Baz, Shane McClanahan, Gavin Williams and Bobby Miller for 2025 and for the rest of their careers? Have Christian Scott (NYM) and River Ryan (LAD) stashed on the IL -- where would they rank on that list for rest of their careers?

With the exception of Baz, this is a big group of pitchers I'm unlikely to roster in 2025, due mostly to injury/durability concerns. I'd rank them: Grayson Rodriguez, Shane Baz, Shane McClanahan, Gavin Williams, Bobby Miller, but Baz is the only one I'd consider at ADP (going around pick 175). 

Long-term, I'd rank them Rodriguez, Baz, McClanahan, Williams, Scott, Ryan, Miller.

Eric Samulski: Do the additions of Joc Pederson and Jake Burger mean Evan Carter will struggle for playing time in Texas in 2025?

I don't think Carter will struggle to play against right-handed pitching as long as his back is cooperating. At this point, they need to prepare for Carter to be unavailable, and they deserve a lot of credit for building a deep, organized roster, with Leody Taveras available to take on a larger role if Carter misses more time, and Josh Smith and Ezequiel Duran available for when Josh Jung and Corey Seager inevitably miss time. 

Yukon Jack: Your thoughts on Emmanuel Rodriguez (MIN) and Sebastian Walcott (TEX)?

Walcott is the No. 1 fantasy prospect because he's the only prospect with obvious first-round fantasy upside. He might not get there, but it's not hard to envision a .270 hitter who hits 30-plus home runs and steals 30-plus bases. One of the most interesting subplots in the minors in 2025 will be how well Walcott handles the upper levels and how quickly he forces a promotion from Double-A to Triple-A. He may need to spend the entire year at Double-A, but he may only need to be there for two or three months, which would be really exciting.

Ftroop888: Emmanuel Rodriguez (MIN) has a unique hitting profile. Who would be a MLB player with a similar profile to compare him to?

Yes, Rodriguez is quite tough to peg. He knows the strike zone very well, rarely swings in the first place and very rarely chases pitches out of the zone, however he takes big cuts when he swings and misses plenty of pitches in the zone. When he connects, he hits the ball as hard as anyone in the minors. It's an even more complicated profile because he's an above-average runner who might be able to play center field. Max Muncy, but who steals 15 bases and provides positive defensive value in the outfield is the best comp I can come up with.

Doug B: Every offseason there are some very young guys who get over-hyped and folks plant their flag — Hedbert Perez (MIL), Marco Luciano (SF), etc.... Who are this year's? I'd suggest Zyhir Hope (LAD) and Jesus Made (MIL)...

That's true, but there are also the Jackson Chourio's and Junior Caminero's who get hyped and meet or exceed the hype. I tend to think Made and Hope are more along those lines, where they're getting hyped up for good reasons. They are probably the tow most offseason-hyped prospects out there though, so you're right about the hype, if not the likely outcome. Hedbert never had success against full-season pitching, so that limits your comps, but Luciano kept his prospect shine longer. Maybe Made's org. mate Eric Bitonti (MIL) could be an answer, as there's significant hype surrounding him but an obvious path to failure against upper-level pitching. Eduardo Quintero (LAD) could be another, although his speed, defense and hit tool are multiple grades above Hedbert's at the same stage. Beyond them, I'm not sure who's generating that same level of hype with a chance of flopping in 2025. 

Neil Mills: Who are some prospects you think have the best shot at 30 or even 40 homers?

The prospects who have the requisite power, hit tool and realistic opportunity to hit 30-40 homers some day: Sebastian Walcott (TEX), Roman Anthony (BOS), Zyhir Hope (LAD), Coby Mayo (BAL), Bryce Eldridge (SF), Nick Kurtz (ATH), Jac Caglianone (KC), Xavier Isaac (TB), Cam Collier (CIN), Emmanuel Rodriguez (MIN), Lazaro Montes (SEA), Robert Calaz (COL), Braden Montgomery (CHW), Colby Thomas (ATH), Ryan Clifford (NYM)

There are dozens of other prospects with a non-zero chance to hit 30-plus homers in a MLB season, but these are the prospects where I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them accomplish the feat. There's a big difference between realistic 25-homer power and realistic 30-plus HR power.

Rossredcay: What do you think the odds are Sean Burke (CHW) has the command to actually stick as a useful starter? He was surprisingly interesting to end 2024, but I'm not sure I believe the command after so many issues in the minors...

Burke has been one of my favorite 2025 breakout candidates since I discussed him on the Sept. 25 podcast with Eno Sarris. He's not a safe pick in the mid-300s, where he's currently going and where I again missed out on him in the Holiday fast DC, but he's got pretty clear upside. It's worth noting that it's arguably easier to throw strikes in the majors right now than at Triple-A, due to the balls and strikes challenge system and the caliber of the umpires. We've also seen some of these bad teams like the White Sox, Angels, Athletics, Marlins get more out of their players in the majors than at Triple-A because all their best coaches are in the majors. In addition to his poor track record of control, Burke doesn't have a great innings log, and I wouldn't project him for more than 130 innings this year, so you don't want to push him too far up the draft board, but I still like him as a upside flyer in the mid-300s.

Mike Gavin: How does the Jesus Luzardo trade impact Andrew Painter (PHI) in redraft?

It doesn't impact how I was valuing Painter. I've been consistent all offseason on the podcast that he was overpriced in redraft due to the uncertain amount of big-league work he'd get this season -- this was never going to be like Paul Skenes last seasojn -- so now that the team has made it official, the market will adjust and he won't be as overpriced as he was. As an aside, I love the Luzardo trade by the Phillies, and I love Luzardo in fantasy now that he's in a real situation. Dave Dombrowski is a great baseball executive. 

Jeff Johnson: Would you trade Andrew Painter (PHI) for James Wood or Roman Anthony (BOS) in a H2H category dynasty league?

I would. Painter will be great in this format if all goes well, but Wood, 22, and Anthony, 20, are premium young position players, and I still think that's how you should build in dynasty. If you only start four outfielders and it's shallower or you're loaded at outfield and it's really hard to acquire good pitching in your league, then you could justify holding Painter.

Eric Samulski: When do you think Noah Schultz (CHW) will debut?

It's tough to say with pitchers his age (21) with his experience level (no experience above Double-A), as this is often when careers start getting derailed/delayed by injury, inconsistent mechanics, incomplete repertoires, etc... If Schultz stays healthy and on a linear trajectory, he could be in the big-league rotation by Memorial Day, so he's very much a boom or bust pick in draft and holds.

Dynasty Junkie: I feel the dynasty community is sleeping on Kevin McGonigle (DET). I want to get crazy and hang a Dustin Pedroia comp on him. Was involved in a trade in an OBP league of mine and I'd bet those managers will hear this. Grade the trade: Adley Rutschman for McGonigle, Jordan Lawlar (ARI), Noble Meyer (MIA), and Cade Horton (CHC)

Well, I hate to pick against the person presumably asking the question, but I'd grade that trade as an A for the team getting Rutschman and a D- for the team getting Lawlar, McGonigle, Meyer and Horton. With Rutschman, at worst, you're getting a top five catcher for several more prime years, and at best you could be buying low on the No. 1 catcher whose 2024 season got hurt by injuries and who could set new career highs in home runs and RBI with the new home dimensions. 

The side getting the four prospects is taking on two pitching prospects I'd have zero interest in trading for this offseason (Horton due to durability, Meyer due to poor control), as well as a pretty obvious cash-out candidate in Lawlar and a second base prospect with questionable power in McGonigle. I know you admitted it was crazy in your question, but you can get into trouble by slapping Pedroia comps on small second basemen with great hit tools. There are always a few of those guys in the minors and they very rarely turn into Pedroia or Jose Altuve. I could see McGonigle being a top-10 fantasy second baseman if he hits his ceiling, but I'd be assuming I get two relievers in Meyer and Horton. Even with his value as down as it is, Lawlar is still the best piece the prospect side is getting, because he still has 20/20 upside, he's just get a high bust potential as well.

Tim Buckenowski: For a win-now roster, would you consider offering Walker Jenkins (MIN) for Roki Sasaki/FYPD pick #1

I would offer that, as I mentioned earlier RE what my top six would look like with Sasaki.

Tim Mical: Am I crazy for wanting to take Nick Kurtz (ATH) over Travis Bazzana (CLE) at 1.2? I have Christian Walker at 1B , Ketel Marte at 2B. Currently trying to trade down.14-team H2H cats 7x7 (OBP and hitters Ks)

I've currently got Kurtz ranked 2nd, Jac Caglianone (KC) ranked 3rd and Bazzana ranked 4th on the FYPD Board, so we're on the same page, at least with Kurtz vs. Bazzana. For what it's worth, I don't think Kurtz over Bazzana is an unpopular opinion, so if you trade down, you could still miss Kurtz, unless you know what certain owners are going to do with their picks ahead of you. 

Ed from da bronx: What level/range of prospect would it take to drop from 1-1 to 1-2?

So, for me, that's Roki Sasaki = Nick Kurtz + ???

I'm tentatively planning on ranking Kurtz and Caglianone around 20th overall and Sasaki 5th overall, so I think if you got back a borderline top-10 prospect like Dylan Crews (WAS), Bubba Chandler (PIT) or Zyhir Hope (LAD) back, that would make it a fair exchange.

Sedona: Many who drafted Yoshinobu Yamamoto before Paul Skenes last year have been living in regret, any chance you draft Chase Burns (CIN) over Roki Sasaki in FYPD?

I would guess that all who drafted Yamamoto before Skenes are living in regret, even though Yamamoto is also a borderline SP1. I don't think the parallel you're looking for is Burns vs. Sasaki, but my No. 2 overall pitching prospect Bubba Chandler (PIT) vs. Sasaki. Burns, who I have ranked 51st on the top 400, is not the same caliber of prospect as Skenes was a year ago (ranked 8th overall in December 2023). I'm not confident enough in Chandler to deal him for the 1-1 pick in FYPD, and I also know you should be able to get much more than just Chandler if you wanted to do that as the 1-1 pick holder. In the answer to the question above I suggested Chandler and 1-2 for 1-1 is a fair trade, for instance, even though it's possible Chandler is worth more than Sasaki in dynasty by May.

Doug Fraley Jr.: With Cam Smith now in Houston, will you have him a little higher in your rankings with him seemingly less blocked by other prospects in their system, as opposed to when he was with Chicago? Whats your general feel for Cam's upside?

While I think it's a slight upgrade for Smith's value to go from Chicago to Houston, I was actually a little lower on him prior to the trade than I was at the time of the last update, just due to recognizing he didn't really answer the HR-power concerns at an age-appropriate level. Still, I'm guessing I'm relatively high on Smith relative to the crowd to have him as a top-30 overall prospect. If he can figure out how to lift the ball consistently enough, it's easy to envision him being a .280 hitter with 25-plus HR power. The hit tool is legitimate, and I don't see him being any worse than Jeimer Candelario, but he's got top-five upside at his position if he reaches his ceiling as a power hitter.

Jason Q: My 8-team (I know) dynasty league has open waivers and doesn't do a FYPD because ESPN. Last year when I realized I wasn't going to do so hot, I snagged Travis Bazzana (CLE), Charlie Condon (COL), Jac Caglianone (KC), Kristian Campbell (BOS), JJ Wetherholt (STL), and Nick Kurtz (ATH). Did I cook?

I'm guessing that if I looked at everything you did last year, I'd say you focussed too much on "rebuilding" or just loading up on prospects, rather than adding breakout players at the big-league level. In an 8-team league, you shouldn't ever need to enter a full rebuild if you're paying attention and making adds in season. 

As for your pickups, you did very well with adding Campbell, as he should spend most or all of 2025 in the majors and is a top-10 prospect. As for the rest, who are all 2024 draftees, I like them in this order: Kurtz, Caglianone, Bazzana, Wetherholt (big gap), Condon.

Prospect Sherpa: I have a handful of 3rd round FYPD picks this year. Who are the Luke Keaschall (MIN)/Kevin McGonigle (DET) mid-round types who could quickly jump into the top 50 of prospect rankings?

It's not a good FYPD class, and I don't honestly like anyone I have a third-round grade on enough to recommend them as potential Keaschall/McGonigle types. Ryan Waldschmidt (ARI) is a favorite of mine in the Keaschall mold as a college bat who could mash all season and JD Dix (ARI) is a prep hitter who may be a little undervalued like McGonigle despite having fantasy-friendly attributes. Once the guys in tier three (11-20) are gone, I'd be looking to trade down/out of FYPDs.

Scott Courlander: For those of us who were drafting the likes of Angel Feliz (WAS) and Joswa Lugo (LAA) in FYPDs last year but missed our shot at Jesus Made (MIL), is there anything we can learn that will keep us from missing the next Jesus Made?

Looking back at my rookie-level hitters preview article, Feliz and Lugo were ++ for pedigree and power potential, with no other distinguishing characteristics, while Made was + age/level, + pedigree and + power. The high-pedigree (signed at 14 or 15 and may have regressed since), high-power (another showcase trait that is hit-tool reliant and doesn't always translate) signees are ones to avoid, and the younger, more well-rounded (although we didn't know that Made was this caliber of athlete at the time) prospects tend to do better.

Sean Kallevig: Would just love to hear your thoughts on the landscape of some of the lower-ranked pitchers and how you are approaching them. Guys I've been looking at are Jackson Baumeister (TB), Kohl Drake (TEX), Yoniel Curet (TB), Jhancarlos Lara (ATL), Sean Sullivan (COL). Do you like the upside in this range? Avoid it all together?

You've got quite a range here. Curet (42), I have ranked well inside the top 100 and he'll be there on the update too. Baumeister is at 104 now and he'll be around there on the update. Lara (208) I have just outside the top 200, Drake I have at 327 and Sullivan I have unranked due to his team context with the Rockies. I'm probably much higher on Curet than others, so he's an offseason target. Baumeister I feel is probably properly valued, and Lara and Drake are more fringe options with obvious downside that are easily attainable this offseason. Sullivan, to each their own. He's a better pitching prospect than the Chris McMahon, Ryan Rolison types, but he's not at the Chase Dollander level where I can envision a scenario where you actually want to use him in some home starts.

Generally, to your question, I love adding/rostering pitching prospects before they get popular, as the value of full-season pitching prospects changes much more rapidly than with hitters. However, in the middle of the winter, there aren't really sleepers anymore -- even guys who were sleepers a few months ago like Curet and Thomas Harrington (PIT) are starting to generate buzz.

Cody Martin: Who are some under the radar Pirates prospects that I could try to acquire in a dynasty league? Bubba Chandler seems untouchable right now...

Speaking of Thomas Harrington, I'd try to get him still this offseason. He has a really deep arsenal (five average or better pitches) and arguably the second-best command (behind Andrew Painter) of any top-100 pitching prospect.

Mike Burrows, Hunter Barco, Carlson Reed and Levi Sterling are four other Pirates pitching prospects I think I like more than your average analyst, and if you want a truly under-the-radar position player to take a flyer on, how about massive first baseman Tony Blanco Jr., who has mammoth power and probably won't hit enough to get to it. Everyone knows about Termarr Johnson, Konnor Griffin, and Nick Yorke, but they're the clear three best hitting prospects in the system.

Sedona: You seem to be the high man on Cole Carrigg (COL), what's his ceiling? Any player comps?

How about Eric Byrnes for a player comp, ideally with a longer prime -- Byrnes slashed .269/.330/.451 with 77 home runs and 99 steals in four seasons from 2004 to 2007. Carrigg is a really good athlete with a quick bat who plays with his hair on fire and seems to get the most of his tools. 

It's always really challenging to slot a player I really like who is about to head to Double-A for the first time as an older player (Carrigg turns 23 in May), as he needs to handle the assignment, or his value will tank. He'll be heading to Hartford, which is the one neutral home park in the organization, so I'm not expecting Carrigg to post the exact same slash line at Double-A that he had with High-A Spokane (.280/.358/.475), but I think he'll hit for a high average with a ton of steals and 12-15 home runs.

Daniel: What are your takeaways from Jackson Holliday's first year?

I was surprised that it went the way it did. I would have expected him to either have more success in the majors or spend more time in the minors, but the Orioles clearly thought the best thing for his long-term development was to go through struggles in the majors rather than continue to have the same success he was having at Triple-A. I'm still a big believer in Holliday long term, and I think he'll have a huge breakthrough at the big-league level, but it could come in 2026 (his age-22 season) and 2025 (his age-21 season) might be a year where he goes from bad to just mediocre in the majors.

Brett Davis: After his rough regular season coupled with an impressive Arizona Fall League, what is your outlook for Colson Montgomery (CHW)?

I've been lower on Montgomery for a while, but I did think the AFL success was a legitimate step towards buying him as someone who could possibly keep their head above water this year in the majors. He's not going to hit for a high average or steal bases, but Montgomery could have a passable OBP with 15-20 homer power (over a full season). He's not a good fantasy prospect, but he has a floor in OBP leagues due to how much playing time he figures to get in the coming years.

Kenneth Jaimes: 2B is a black hole for me right now (last year I wasn't playoff bound so I traded Jose Altuve for Triston Casas). Who should I trade for that A) should be up in 2025 and B) has a decent chance of helping me at 2B for the foreseeable future?

Ideal trade targets: Jordan Westburg, Luis Garcia, Kristian Campbell (BOS)

Realistic trade targets: Caleb Durbin (MIL), Otto Lopez, Nick Yorke, Michael Massey, Lenyn Sosa

Westburg, Durbin, Yorke and Sosa will get some playing time elsewhere, but I expect them to all play enough at second base to be eligible there in 2026. I like the idea of having Colt Keith at second base over the next couple years, but he could lose second base eligibility by 2027, so I didn't list him as an answer to this specific question.

Big Goof: If Chase DeLauter (CLE) is healthy, do you think the Guardians start the season with him and Jhonkensy Noel as the RF platoon? Also, everyone has Juan Brito penciled in at 2B but I think they'll give Angel Martinez the first chance since he already has MLB service time, curious what you think...

If DeLauter is healthy and has a great spring training, I think he could make the team, but I'd say it's greater than 50 percent that he starts back at Triple-A and they wait until they gain an extra year of service time (at least mid-April) before starting his clock. Noel will move between right field and designated hitter, and as I mentioned with Dave McDonald at the end of last week's podcast, I think Noel's got a high ceiling and a chance to hit his way into more playing time.

I would have agreed with you RE Martinez vs. Brito, although Ken Rosenthal mentioned in The Athletic on Dec. 11 that the club sees Brito taking over in the short term and Travis Bazzana obviously in the long term. It could just be an open competition in the spring, with Martinez's defensive versatility perhaps giving him less of an edge since the winner would just be playing second base most of the time.

Yukon Jack: Can you discuss your personal evaluations of Carson Williams (TB), Samuel Basallo (BAL) and Jack Leiter (TEX) for 2025?

Williams should be up midseason and hit for a very low average before potentially breaking out in 2026 as a Trevor Story type in fantasy. Basallo could have a Victor Martinez type of career, where he plays as many games at designated hitter as at catcher, with plenty of starts at first base mixed in, but I don't think he'll be a reliable fantasy option at any point in 2025, barring an Adley Rutschman injury. Leiter is boom or bust, and I'd bet on bust, although I do have one share in a draft and hold where I got him pretty late. He's at a high risk of injury and his command is incredibly inconsistent, so there's a lot of ways it can go poorly, but he also has a monster fastball on the rare ocassions when he's locating it.

Eric Samulski: Which/if any Boston prospects do you think will have early-season value next year?

Romany Anthony and Kristian Campbell should provide some first-half fantasy, and either or both could make the Opening Day roster. Even if they don't trade anyone, I could still see one of those rookies winning a job at the expense of David Hamilton and/or Ceddanne Rafaela's playing time.

I don't think Marcelo Mayer should be counted on for anything, but he could be an option in the first half if he's healthy and Trevor Story is hurt or struggling. Richard Fitts is the other prospect to keep an eye on, and the only pitcher. Fitts will be well outside the rotation competition this spring, but he's big-league ready and I'd feel comfortable streaming him in good matchups.

Sedona: Johnathan Rodriguez (CLE) seems like he's hit at every level while reducing his Ks and increasing his walks last season. Is he just a 4th OF?

I think he can be a strong-side platoon corner outfielder. Rodriguez has been a target for me in NFBC Draft Champions (I took him this past weekend at pick 547) where I'm looking for late-round outfielders who could help me with power during the summer. It's a little crowded, particularly when Steven Kwan, Chase DeLauter and Jhonkensy Noel are all healthy, but I could see Rodriguez taking playing time away from Will Brennan in May or June when reinforcements are needed.

David M. DiCenzo: How do you feel the past season has impacted AJ Smith-Shawver's (ATL) stock and what role do you eventually see him settling into within Atlanta's rotation?

It's pretty much tanked his value. There are reports that some evaluators inside and outside the organization are starting to project a setup role for Smith-Shawver. It's too early to give up on him, but I'm not targeting him for 2025. There's obviously a big hole at the back of Atlanta's rotation, but I'm guessing they'll bring in a cheap veteran option for that spot and I also think Spencer Strider will be back sooner than some expect (maybe in the rotation as early as May).

Jon Broska: Does the Rays picking up Will Simpson in the trade with the A's signal a need for more options at first base? Do you think they've soured on Xavier Isaac (TB) and have you soured on him at all after last season?

I think they just thought Simpson was undervalued (I agree) and they knew they wanted to trade Jeffrey Springs so they put the best Athletics package together that they could. I wouldn't use the term "soured", but everyone should be a little lower on Isaac than they were at the peak of his prospect value last May. He had a 27.4 percent strikeout rate through mid-May and a 36 percent strikeout rate over the rest of the season (69 games) split between High-A and Double-A. There's more hit tool risk with Isaac than I thought there would be at this stage, but I still think he's a top 50 prospect.

RoysanPHD: I've held onto Jonathan Aranda for the past three years. Any positive park factors for lefties in the new ballpark the Rays are playing in?

Yes, Steinbrenner Field is basically a replica of Yankee Stadium, so lefties like Aranda, Brandon Lowe, Josh Lowe and Richie Palacios should benefit, as well as righty hitters with center-oppo power alleys like Junior Caminero.

Jim Childs: What are your thoughts on Curtis Mead and his future value? Do his struggles last year and lack of true position doom him to a platoon role going forward?

The poor defense is a big problem for Mead. If he was an above-average defensive second baseman, I could see him eventually being an everyday player who hits for a high average with 18-20 homer power. But given his defensive shortcomings, I think he's going to be stuck in a short-side platoon role while getting short stints as a semi-regular designated hitter when there are injuries ahead of him.

Parker: Which young players in the low minors have elite exit velocities that we need to keep on our radar for our 2025 watchlists?

I wasn't sure exactly what caliber of prospect you were asking for, but Eric Bitonti (MIL), Emil Morales (LAD), Tai Peete (SEA), Luis Merejo (CLE), Brailer Guerrero (TB), Alfredo Duno (CIN), Yoeilin Cespedes (BOS), PJ Morlando (MIA), Kale Fountain (SD) are all young and in the lower minors and have strong exit velocity data. Most young hitters don't have strong exit velocity data, and it's also tough to track down recent exit velocity data on players who haven't made their pro debuts or have only played in rookie leagues.

Sedona: Moises Chace (PHI) has been getting some helium this offseason, what's his long-term outlook?

He could be a high-strikeout starter or a late-inning reliever. Chace really took off late in the year, especially after getting traded from the Orioles to the Phillies at the trade deadline. He had a 3.13 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and 64:11 K:BB in 37.1 innings from July 4 through Aug. 31, although he was only pitching past the fourth inning for a four-start stretch after the trade. Chace's control has been shaky at times, and his 80.1 innings in 2024 were a career high, but if he is able to handle a starter's workload, there's a very high ceiling due to multiple plus pitches in his fastball and slider. He's on the 40-man roster, but I wouldn't expect him to make any starts in the big-league rotation until 2026.

William Maas: What's up with George Lombard (NYY)? Is hearing about him this year in trade rumors typical Yankees using the media to hype up their guys?

Yeah, the Yankees are well known for using the media to hype up their prospects. Lombard is a better prospect than his 2024 stat line indicates -- there just aren't that many 6-foot-2 no-doubt shortstops with above-average speed and room to grow into significant power in the minors, so he's of interest to teams, but there's a long way to go for him offensively. 

Toolsy: I have to ask about Druw Jones. I've had him for a while. Do you have hope for him? Would you hold him if cutting roster down to 30 in a 16-team league?

I think you can cut him loose. By far his two worst tools are his hit tool and his power, so even if he gets to the majors on the heels of his excellent center-field defense, I doubt you'd really regret letting him go. It's an indictment for a player with his bloodlines and pedigree to be heading to High-A for his age-21 season.

Prospect Sherpa: With Shane Smith being taken in the Rule 5 draft, do you see him in the White Sox rotation or just a long-relief guy? What impact will he have?

He was a more fun prospect when he might come up with the Brewers after another year of minor-league development, but he's still an interesting wild card with the White Sox. Smith has pretty good stuff, and he had a run of dominance as a starter at Double-A last year, so it wouldn't be the craziest thing for him to have some success as a big-league starter this year. I'm guessing they'll have him in a long-relief role for a while, but there's no reason he couldn't earn 10-15 starts throughout the year.

Rossredcay: What has you lower on Luis Morales (OAK)? I know it wasn't like an otherworldly year statistically for him, but all of the reports I read are pretty darn high on the stuff/upside. I get being a little lower than some others due to proximity, but feels like the upside warrants a higher spot...

I'm pretty convinced he's a reliever long term. He's got really good stuff, but I don't think he has the feel or the focus to make it as a starter, and his fastball velocity (97 mph) is in the danger zone. That said, I buy your argument that his upside might warrant a higher spot, especially if you want these to reflect trade value, I just wanted to make it clear in the rankings that I'm not a believer in Morales as a starter.

Nailz: What are your thoughts on Ivan Melendez (ARI)? Is he worth keeping in a dynasty format given Christian Walker's departure? Big power obviously but also big strikeouts. I have Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Spencer Torkelson, Xavier Isaac (TB) and Pablo Guerrero (TEX) as my only rostered 1B...

I haven't had Melendez ranked since last January and haven't had him in the top 200 since August 2022, so he wouldn't have been worth holding for me for a while now due to his below-average hit tool. Josh Naylor and Pavin Smith to split the first base/designated hitter duties in Arizona for the foreseeable future.

Doug Dennis: Two players I am trying to learn more about: Eduardo Beltre (MIN) and Luis Cova (MIA)

Beltre is extremely risky still, but also very exciting since he clearly has a shot at having plus power and plus speed in his early-20s. He was a better pure hitter in the Dominican Summer League than anyone was expecting, but I'd like to see him prove it in the Florida Complex League in his second season before fully buying into him being a potential positive contributor in AVG/OBP. Beltre's power feels like his most bankable tool when projecting ahead five years.

Cova's plus-plus speed is where his game and fantasy value start. He didn't show the same type of offensive impact in his pro debut that Beltre did, but he hit enough to remain relevant and if Cova keeps adding strength, he could end up being a five-tool center fielder in a few years. He's got breakout potential in 2025 and 2026.

Sedona: Which Giants prospect makes the starting rotation? Landen Roupp/Trevor McDonald/Mason Black have a shot?

When Eno Sarris came on the podcast a couple months ago, he seemed pretty confident it would be Roupp, and he's plugged in there, so I buy that. I could also see them bringing in a veteran starter ahead of those three. Roupp is certainly the best pitcher of the trio, his big problem has been holding up under a starter's workload over a full season.