Farm Futures: Ranking Dilemmas: Prospects 126-150

The indefinite suspension of MLB, MiLB and fantasy baseball seasons are obviously a minor inconvenience compared to everything else going on in the world. However, in an effort to provide a distraction during this difficult period, I am going to peel back the curtain of my top-400 prospect rankings. This sixth article will cover my updated 126-150 prospects. I will continue this series, working down my top-400 prospect rankings every week throughout this hiatus.

In addition to each player's rank, I have noted where I believe the tiers are in the rankings and where each prospect was ranked on 10/1/19 and 1/1/20 (there are now graphs on each player's page to show how their ranking on the top 400 has changed), to provide a glimpse of how my valuation of these prospects has evolved throughout the offseason and spring training. For the players who saw big jumps from 10/1/19 to 1/1/20, my evaluation of that player changed significantly when I was able to do a deep dive on them while writing their outlook (available at the top right of each player page) for the magazine. Sometimes when I'm writing up a player, I have that ah-ha moment where I realize they need to be bumped quite a bit higher/lower, which is why there is sometimes significant movement when games aren't being played. The tier from last week's article that begin with Kameron Misner at No. 107 continues over to this week's list, so there is one big tier from 107-150.

Might Be Too Low

I'm content with where I have them ranked, but these are the players who I'm most worried about being too low on.

Hitter: Travis Swaggerty/Aaron Bracho

All the Pirates get a slight bump with the new regime and new player development staff in Pittsburgh. Swaggerty in particular needs to listen to smart player-dev people with regards to his approach. He has all the tools to be a table-setting outfielder who hits for a decent average, walks at a solid clip, hits 12-15 home runs and steals 20-30 bases. However, too often he has tried to show he is a power hitter. He could eventually grow into 20-homer pop, but developing his hit tool and mastering his approach is his ticket to becoming a quality starting outfielder. The fact that he is left-handed works in his favor from a playing time standpoint, and he showed a lot of promise down the stretch last year. If he embraces the idea of molding his game after Lorenzo Cain, he could be a top-50 prospect thanks to his speed.

I know I'm lower than most on Bracho. If you could promise me that his body would stay exactly the same over the next few years, he'd be a borderline top-100 prospect for me, but I'm pretty worried about him thickening to the point he loses agility, speed and explosiveness in all aspects of the game. Already confined to second base, the last thing we want is for this to be a DH-only type of profile in a few years, and I think that's in play. If he is extremely diligent with his conditioning and diet, he could be a middle-of-the-order second baseman in 2024 or 2025, but we're a long way away from that being a reality, and I'm not sold enough on the hit tool being plus to give him more benefit of the doubt than I'm already giving him. Still, the offensive upside is such that he could reward those who are more aggressive with their ranking of him.

Pitcher: Deivi Garcia

I don't really think I might be too low on Garcia, but he has the stuff and proximity to make my current ranking look dumb in a year. It's not impossible to be a really good right-handed starting pitcher who is only 5-foot-9, but guys like Marcus Stroman are quite rare. Even Sonny Gray, Johnny Cueto and Pedro Martinez have or had at least an inch or two on Garcia. If he had really good command, I'd give him the benefit of the doubt, but when you combine fringe-average command (at best) with a 5-foot-9 frame for a righty, it's really tough to buy into him being a quality starting pitcher. In addition to high-end stuff, Garcia also has youth on his side. He turns 21 in May, so he could spend the next 12 months working diligently on improving as a strike thrower, and could head to 2021 spring training as a much improved 21-year-old ready to compete for a rotation spot.

Might Be Too High

These are guys who I keep thinking I might have ranked a little bit too high.

Hitter: Bobby Dalbec/Keoni Cavaco

Dalbec is old for his level, he strikes out a lot, and his walk rate plummeted at Triple-A. He is also a right-handed slugger who is blocked at his natural position, and the new regime in Boston figures to be much more platoon happy than the previous one. He could bounce back whenever he is able to return to Triple-A game action, but he is not ready to face MLB pitching. On another team, his strong defense at third base could buy him everyday playing time in a year, but I'm not sure how he will end up breaking in with Boston. If he is moved to a position where he is only an average defender, there will be all the more pressure on him to hit enough against righties to garner more than the short side of a platoon.

I ranked Cavaco as the 10th-best prospect in last year's draft class prior to the draft. He proceeded to have one of the worst pro debuts from the class, and now he is the 25th-ranked prospect from the 2019 draft class. I have really struggled with how much recency bias should be factored in. If I didn't like him before the draft, there's a chance he might not be on the top 400 at all — that's how bad his debut was. However, he was also facing by far the best competition of his life and did not have a chance to work extensively with the Twins' development staff prior to getting sent out to the GCL. He has star-level tools, with a chance for plus power, plus speed and plus defense at third base. That's what's keeping him in the top 150 for now, but if he flops in his next extended run against pro pitching, reality will start to set in.

Pitcher: James Karinchak

Karinchak is one of my favorite non-closer relievers to roster in redraft leagues because I think his strikeout rate could be high enough that he will be deployable even if he's not getting saves -- kind of like Nick Anderson last year. However, getting aggressive with any relief pitching prospect can be a big mistake. The best relief pitching prospects that come to mind over the past few seasons are Andres Munoz, Joe Jimenez and Seranthony Dominguez. Munoz is recovering from Tommy John surgery, and while I would hold him in deeper dynasty leagues, I understand those who cut bait. Jimenez has yet to become the lights out reliever he showed the potential to become while he was in the minors, and while he is now the undisputed closer in Detroit, he is still a couple bad months or a significant injury away from his value cratering. Dominguez couldn't handle pitching on back-to-back days and has dealt with nagging injuries, falling out of the saves mix in Philadelphia. If you look at all the closers in baseball, there is not a formula for finding the "next guy". To further complicate matters, Emmanuel Clase, who will be featured in next week's article, is also one of the best non-closer relievers to roster in dynasty leagues, and he pitches in the same bullpen.

Feel free to ask me any prospect-related questions in the comments section or on Twitter.