Farm Futures: Ranking The Rookies

This article originally appeared in the 2020 RotoWire Baseball Magazine and has been updated to reflect the latest news.

The top 400 prospect rankings are for dynasty leagues. This resource is for owners who play in single-season leagues, or in keeper leagues where prospects are rarely kept. These tiers serve as a way to rank prospects based on their fantasy potential for 2020. The rankings are not perfect — there are players I would take over a player or two in the tier(s) above them — but the tiered system is a nice way to get a feel for the type of prospect you are investing in.

TIER ONE - Impactful Hitters

1. Gavin Lux, 2B, Dodgers

2. Luis Robert, OF, White Sox

I expect Robert to steal around 10 more bases than Lux, but I expect Lux to match Robert's home runs and runs+RBI while outpacing him in batting average by 30-40 points. From a roster construction standpoint, I would rather have a 15-20-steal player who should hit around .280 with the upside to hit close to .300 than the 20-30-steal player who should hit around .245 with the downside to hit .230. Obviously if I'm wrong about the readiness of Robert's hit tool, this order will be incorrect.

TIER TWO - Mixed-League Pitchers

3. Jesus Luzardo, LHP, Athletics

4. A.J. Puk, LHP, Athletics

5. Jose Urquidy, RHP, Astros

6. Mitch Keller, RHP, Pirates

They are listed in this same order on the top 400. Luzardo and Puk have frontline upside but will likely be limited to 130-145 innings in a best-case scenario. Urquidy seems like a classic mid-rotation starter whose ratios will be just as valuable as his strikeouts and who could challenge for 13-plus wins. Keller gets whiffs with his nasty slider, but his fastball is straight and his fastball command is fringe-average, which leads to trouble. He should be seen as a ratio risk until he proves otherwise.

TIER THREE - Mixed-League Hitters

7. Dylan Carlson, OF, Cardinals

8. Sean Murphy, C, Athletics

9. Austin Hays, OF, Orioles

10. Sam Hilliard, OF, Rockies

11. Nick Solak, UTIL, Rangers

12. Nick Madrigal, 2B, White Sox

13. Jake Fraley, OF, Mariners

14. Carter Kieboom, 3B/2B, Nationals

15. Evan White, 1B, Mariners

16. Jo Adell, OF, Angels

Two top prospects bookend this tier, with Carlson at the top as a big-league-ready hitter who should debut in late April or early May, and Adell at the bottom due to the fact he may not debut until June. Murphy (durability) and Hilliard (playing time) have significant upside but carry some risk. Hays, Solak, Kieboom and White have opportunity on their side, but I don't see much upside. Madrigal will probably be up in late April and could hit .295 with 70-plus runs, 20-plus steals, fewer than five home runs and fewer than 50 RBI. Fraley is the wild card. He could go 20/20 and he could also lose everyday playing time by May.

TIER FOUR - Pitchers For Watch Lists

17. Dustin May, RHP, Dodgers

18. Spencer Howard, RHP, Phillies

19. MacKenzie Gore, LHP, Padres

20. Forrest Whitley, RHP, Astros

21. Michael Kopech, RHP, White Sox

22. Brendan McKay, LHP, Rays

23. Nate Pearson, RHP, Blue Jays

24. Clarke Schmidt, RHP, Yankees

25. Kyle Wright, RHP, Braves

26. Matt Manning, RHP, Tigers

27. Sixto Sanchez, RHP, Marlins

28. Casey Mize, RHP, Tigers

29. Luis Patino, RHP, Padres

30. Tarik Skubal, LHP, Tigers

May's side injury is the only thing keeping him out of the second tier. I expect him to be better than Urquidy and Keller on a per-start basis. Howard has the best combination of upside and opportunity. Gore, Whitley, Pearson, Schmidt and Manning have high ceilings and fuzzy ETAs. Kopech's stuff is electric, but I expect his command to hold him back in his first year returning from TJS. McKay is a mid-rotation starter who is ready but may not have a spot. Sanchez and Mize are very similar in that they are ratios-over-strikeouts starters who could debut this summer. Wright has the lowest ceiling in this tier but is big-league ready and on a good team. Patino and Skubal are talented wild cards — nothing would surprise me with them.

TIER FIVE - Hitters For Watch Lists

31. Jarred Kelenic, OF, Mariners

32. Alex Kirilloff, 1B/OF, Twins

33. Alec Bohm, 3B/1B, Phillies

34. Brendan Rodgers, 2B/3B/SS, Rockies

35. Joey Bart, C, Giants

36. Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B, Pirates

37. Julio Rodriguez, OF, Mariners

38. Wander Franco, 2B/SS, Rays

39. Monte Harrison, OF, Marlins

40. Drew Waters, OF, Braves

41. Cristian Pache, OF, Braves

42. Jared Oliva, OF, Pirates

43. Andrew Vaughn, 1B/DH, White Sox

44. Trevor Larnach, OF/DH, Twins

45. Jeter Downs, 2B, Red Sox

46. Jazz Chisholm, SS, Marlins

All of these guys are top-100 prospects. Kelenic has a very clear path and will be promoted aggressively if he hits. Kirilloff will be ready if an opportunity presents itself. The decks are clear for Bohm to take over at third base in Philadelphia even though he fits better at first base. Rodriguez is only entering his age-19 season, but he's special enough that I could see him up and raking this summer. Oliva could be a cheap source of speed if he handles Triple-A.

TIER SIX - Relievers and Likely Relievers

47. James Karinchak, RHP, Indians

48. Hunter Harvey, RHP, Orioles

49. Bryan Abreu, RHP, Astros

50. Deivi Garcia, RHP, Yankees

51. Brusdar Graterol, RHP, Dodgers

Karinchak deserves to be a couple tiers up, but I wanted to keep the relievers together. Abreu's breaking ball is good enough that his performance bears watching. I don't buy Garcia or Graterol as long-term starters. Garcia may end up getting a look though given the injuries in that rotation.

TIER SEVEN - Deep-League Pitchers

52. Patrick Sandoval, LHP, Angels

53. Logan Webb, RHP, Giants

54. Tony Gonsolin, RHP, Dodgers

55. Justus Sheffield, LHP, Mariners

56. Joe Palumbo, LHP, Rangers

57. Anthony Kay, LHP, Blue Jays

58. Randy Dobnak, RHP, Twins

59. Lewis Thorpe, LHP, Twins

60. Devin Smeltzer, LHP, Twins

Just getting innings can be of value in deep leagues, and these guys will all get a shot at some point, if not right out of the gate. There is a case for Sandoval to be up in the second tier — it would not be crazy to me if he were better than Keller this year.

TIER EIGHT - Deep-League Hitters

61. Kyle Lewis, OF, Mariners

62. Reese McGuire, C, Blue Jays

63. Nico Hoerner, 2B/SS, Cubs

64. Jaylin Davis, OF, Giants

65. Abraham Toro, 3B/1B/2B, Astros

66. Ryan Mountcastle, OF/1B, Orioles

67. Edwin Rios, 1B/3B/OF, Dodgers

68. Mauricio Dubon, 2B, Giants

69. Jorge Mateo, 2B/SS, Athletics

70. Willi Castro, SS, Tigers

71. Daniel Johnson, OF, Nationals

72. Sheldon Neuse, 2B/3B, Athletics

These guys either have a very clear opportunity, or in the case of Toro and Rios, I think their bats could force the issue. Johnson, Dubon, Mateo and Castro could be cheap sources of double-digit steals.

TIER NINE - Pitchers For Watch Lists II

73. Brent Honeywell, RHP, Rays

74. Bryse Wilson, RHP, Braves

75. James Kaprielian, RHP, Athletics

76. Daulton Jefferies, RHP, Athletics

77. Ian Anderson, RHP, Braves

78. Tyler Ivey, RHP, Astros

Honeywell will likely be handled with kid gloves this year, but he was ready before the injuries. Jefferies is dealing with a biceps injury, which may take him out of Oakland's plans in the first half of the season. Wilson and Anderson stalled out last year, while there are workload/durability concerns with Kaprielian and Ivey.

TIER TEN - Catchers For Watch Lists

79. Tyler Stephenson, C, Reds

80. Ryan Jeffers, C, Twins

81. Daulton Varsho, C, Diamondbacks

82. Keibert Ruiz, C, Dodgers

Realistically I'd bet against each of these guys being relevant in 2020, but people are always looking for options at catcher.

TIER ELEVEN - Deep-League Hitters II

83. Jake Cronenworth, SS/2B/3B/RHP, Padres

84. Bobby Bradley, 1B, Indians

85. Randy Arozarena, OF, Cardinals

86. Kevin Padlo, 3B/1B/2B, Rays

87. Daz Cameron, OF, Tigers

88. Justin Williams, OF, Cardinals

89. Yusniel Diaz, OF, Orioles

90. Isaac Paredes, 3B/2B/SS, Tigers

91. Bobby Dalbec, 3B/1B, Red Sox

92. Zach McKinstry, 2B/OF, Dodgers

93. DJ Peters, OF, Dodgers

94. Andy Young, 2B/3B/SS, Diamondbacks

95. Kevin Cron, 3B/1B, Diamondbacks

96. Lewin Diaz, 1B, Marlins

97. Taylor Jones, 1B, Astros

I either don't believe in these guys or I don't believe in them getting consistent playing time, at least not in the first couple months. They are all lingering, however.

TIER TWELVE - The Long Shots

98. Nolan Jones, 3B, Indians

99. Brandon Marsh, OF, Angels

100. Khalil Lee, OF, Roylas

101. Josh Lowe, OF, Rays

102. Vidal Brujan, 2B/SS, Rays

103. Royce Lewis, SS/3B/2B/OF, Twins

104. Edward Cabrera, RHP, Marlins

105. Josiah Gray, RHP, Dodgers

106. Taylor Trammell, OF, Padres

These guys are all talented enough to force the issue at some point this season, but they are long shots to do so.