Man + Machine: Finding Value

This article is part of our Man + Machine series.

There were some duds, which was to be expected, but there were also a number of large performances. In fact, every day there were a few which tipped the scales significantly in relation to their price points.

The optimizer rarely spits out a mid- to high-priced player as one of the top values of the day, so expectations should be kept in check. These players aren't your lineup core, but instead, they should be viewed as cap relief options to open room to beef up the heart of your lineup.

To track the results, I pulled the top 12 to 14 hitters each day with the highest value rating to monitor their results. Every lineup hadn't been confirmed, and there was the odd inclusion truly out of left field, which is why sometimes I tracked a few extra players.

To be absolutely specific, 50 DraftKings players were tracked over four days. Two players did not have an at-bat in their games, and one player was only used as a pinch hitter. 49 players were tracked over the same time period for FanDuel, and only one player did not receive an at-bat.

Here are the results of the top producers.

First, and this was mentioned in the comments of a previous article, when a player stands out as a value at both sites, you should take more notice. For example, Ian Desmond's large day July 20, and then Jedd Gyorko and Grady Sizemore both tilted the value meter July 17.

However, at the same time, you'll want to be careful of the Michael Taylor and Kirk Nieuwenhuis types. They've consistently been recommended values lately, along with Sean Rodriguez. Obviously, sometimes it pays off to roll with a low-priced flier, but staying between the white lines is important, too.

FanDuel is interesting because a player can lose you points, and a quarter (12) of the players who started actually did return a negative point total. That being said, Andrew McCutchen has gone for minus value in three of his past six games, so it happens.

FanDuel also has more recognizable hitters show up more frequently. Desmond, Justin Upton, Kyle Seager and Kyle Schwarber all returned big games when they landed on the radar. It would be wise to limit your FanDuel exposure to more established hitters, or fliers who land in favorable pitching match ups.

DraftKings is still a little bit of a stretch. Hat tip to the optimizer for acknowledging and recommending J.T. Realmuto and Clint Robinson, but it is a large leap of faith to slot them into your lineups as anything more than cap relief.

All said, though, considering 23 players of the 48 and 47 tracked returned a respectable-to-solid point total, the optimizer might warrant more than just the odd leap of faith. After all, these are all lineup fillers and sources of cap relief, and not your lineup locks.

Contest Results

More of the same with the results, as I basically broke even. However, I missed entering GPP contests Monday night, and those were my two best lineups. That hurts because while neither would have made too much noise, they should have cashed, I believe.

It is important to enter the contests early, even the night before, and then edit lineups closer to the deadline. I'm picky about which contests I enter, though.

What's Next?

A larger sample size for the recommended values is needed, so continuing to track those players will help. There should be a few more patterns and helpful finds revealed.

I'm also going to look closer at pitchers and track them by points rank instead of value. Pitchers are so vital to a successful lineup that it would be worth determining how well the optimizer ranks them.

The pursuit stands to have some really interesting results.

I'm also going to try and look for ways to better analyze ownership percentages, though that may be more of an ongoing project on the back burner.