Man + Machine: Top-10 Pitcher Accuracy

This article is part of our Man + Machine series.

With 196 pitching outings tracked over two sites and 10 days, there should be enough data to pluck a few concrete conclusions. Four starts were impacted by rain to fall short of an even 200.

Pitcher Rankings

Before looking too deep, here are the new totals:

DraftKings' average pitching score among top-10 ranked arms was 19.73 fantasy points, whereas FanDuel was 12.17 points. These numbers are solid representations of what can be expected out of the top-10 ranked pitchers from each site nightly, too.

When the 10 highest and 10 lowest pitching performances were removed, the average point total never moved more than a full point. It also played out this way when the top-15 and worst-15 showings were removed.

The optimizer went 61-for-100 in predicting top-five performances: 29-for-50 at DraftKings and 32-for-50 at FanDuel.

The previously collected results are in Pitcher Projections and All About Value.

What is most apparent about the optimizer's recent struggles in predicting pitcher performances is current form vs. year-long production.

Two specific examples stand out from Aug 12: both Gerrit Cole and Jason Hammel were recommended top-five starts at DraftKings, and Cole was a ranked third at both sites.

Cole entered the Aug. 12 outing with six runs allowed through 11 innings over his past two starts, and while it is easy to sit back and cherry-pick in retrospect, it was an outing against St. Louis.

Hammel, similarly, entered his start against Milwaukee on Aug. 12 with nine runs allowed through his previous 13.1 innings while allowing 17 hits over his previous three games. Plus, the start against the Brewers was coming on the heels of a game where he didn't reach the fifth inning.

Again, it is easy to pluck in hindsight, but as a seasonal owner of both Cole and Hammel, they've been trending in the wrong direction over their past five starts. Their year-long success somewhat masks the slide, though.
It is something to watch for when constructing your lineups going forward.

Here is a nice parting number/stat to chew on … 80 percent.

80 percent of the top-two pitchers tracked finished with a top-five pitching performance. Those are nice odds for fake sports, and it shows in the long haul, the optimizer does well at identifying safe pitchers to target for your lineups.

Tee it Up!

The PGA lends itself favorably to fantasy sports, and especially the daily racket.

It is a weekly sport, similar to football, but with results spreading over four days, it is almost the perfect merger between daily and seasonal. It isn't all or nothing in a single round, but there is a chance to reset each week, too.

The cut line adds a great element to strategy, and the Sunday finishes can become extremely compelling.

Last week, with the PGA Championship on tap, I utilized the Rotowire PGA Optimizer and was a Francesco Molinari final round collapse from a significant payday at FantasyAces. Instead, I finished 50th in the $5,000 PGA Champsionship Five Iron.

At one point Saturday, I was leading the $11 entry tournament. It wasn't just Molinari, actually, as Rickie Fowler, Charl Schwartzel and Jason Bohn all had disappointing Sundays.

The optimizer pointed me in the direction of Matt Kucher, though, which proved to be an excellent value.

To change it up slightly, I thought it would be fun to look at a few values the optimizer likes for the Wyndham Championship.

DraftKings
Cameron Smith, $7,400 salary, 14.8 percent of cap: The big stakes haven't fazed the kid. He has gone under par and played all four rounds in consecutive majors -- both top-25 finishes.

George McNeill, $7,000 salary, 14.0 percent of cap: Finished second with a 15-under in 2011, but McNeill also missed the cut in 2012 and didn't play last season. Beware of his current form, too.

Jason Kokrak, $6,800 salary, 13.6 percent of cap: Nothing in terms of course history and has only made the cut in five of his last 11 tournaments, albeit with two top-20 finishes.

Vaughn Taylor, $6,700 salary, 13.4 percent of cap: Has made six straight cuts with three top-25 finishes and six top-25s over his past 11 tournaments. Hasn't played at Sedgefield since 2012, though.

Boo Weekley, $6,600 salary, 13.2 percent of cap: With three top-10 finishes and weekend play in eight of his past 10 events, Weekly looks like a solid bet at his cap hit.

Fantasy Aces
Ollie Schniederjans, $4,450 salary, 14.8 percent of cap: The Stableford scoring didn't suit him, but otherwise, Schniederjans has been a beast with top-25 finishes in each of his last three events, including The Open Championship.

Chad Campbell, $4,500 salary, 15.0 percent of cap: Currently dialed in with seven consecutive cuts made, four top-25 finishes and under-par finishes in each event, Campbell also finished fourth here in 2012.

Byeong-Hun An, $3,750 salary, 12.5 percent of cap: A complete wildcard, but finished 26th at The Open Championship and is currently ranked 55th in the Official World Golf Rankings.

Bryce Molder, $4,050 salary, 13.5 percent of cap: Has an active 10-for-11 stretch of cuts made with three top-25 finishes. Finished 16th here in 2013.

Stewart Cink, $4,050 salary, 13.5 percent of cap: The veteran is streaky with a missed cut, fifth place and 20th finishes over his past three events. He missed the cut in his last trip to Sedgefield in 2013.

What's Next?

We'll track a few PGA values and not lose track of baseball, either.

I'm always open for ideas, and things you're looking to see covered. So feel free to hit me up in the comments or on the Twitter Machine.