Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

In two weeks, the minor league season will finally begin. It will be more important than ever to beware of the small sample size, as many players either didn't play in 2020 or appeared in limited/simulated action. And nothing can truly replicate a live game against legitimate opposition.  Therefore, it will be vital not to overreact to a slow start by a prized phenom. Likewise, due to missing an entire season, the assignment of players may lead to some surprising results as teams decide where to place prospects in spite of the missed season. Add in the removal of some levels and teams and we could be in for a wild May in the minors.

As we wait for games to resume on the farm, let's continue to analyze more prospects in this edition of the Minor League Barometer.

UPGRADE

DL Hall, P, BAL – The current Orioles' starting rotation is frightening, and I don't mean that in a positive way. Dean Kremer and Jorge Lopez have been disastrous through two starts apiece, the artist formerly known as Matt Harvey is listed as the No. 2 starter, and only southpaw John Means has shown he truly belongs. Along with Grayson Rodriguez, Hall represents the future for the Baltimore pitching staff. He offers dynamic stuff with a heater that approaches triple-digits, a hard slider, plus changeup and emerging curveball. The hope is that Hall has had time to work on his command/control, which can be suspect at times. Even though the Orioles are not going anywhere this season, they still need to piece together some semblance of a rotation to just get through the season. Hall is a year older than Rodriguez and had appeared at a higher level prior to the pandemic, so the possibility is there that Hall sees the big leagues in 2021 even with the O's in full rebuild mode.

Ryan Pepiot, P, LAD – Pepiot boasts a devastating changeup and showed out at the alternate site last season. A third-round pick in 2019 with an ideal starter's frame, he's upped his fastball velocity while also mixing in a slider and curveball. At 23, Pepiot has only recorded 23.1 professional innings due to the canceled 2020 campaign, but could be a fast riser for the Dodgers in 2021.  There's an argument to be made that once Josiah Gray ends up in the big leagues, Pepiot will be the organization's top pitching prospect. 

Drew Waters, OF, ATL – Just a month ago, it looked as though the path for Waters was firmly blocked. Now, due to injuries, he may end up making his MLB debut far sooner than expected.  First it was Cristian Pache heading to the Injured List due to groin tightness. Then Ender Inciarte hurt his hamstring Friday and also found his way to the IL.  And lastly, Ronald Acuna left Sunday's clash with the Chicago Cubs because of an abdominal strain, the severity of which is currently unknown. The Braves picked up Guillermo Heredia off the scrap heap and he responded with two home runs and six RBI Sunday, although the Braves are still very thin in the outfield. As a result, Waters is certainly an option as a switch hitter with a stellar glove.

Austin Martin, OF, TOR – Martin is a polished college bat who also has power and could shoot through the system with a strong showing to begin the season. The Jays have not been shy about promoting young hitters quickly, and Martin has the pedigree to make an impact sooner rather than later. It remains to be seen where he will end up in the field, though that may end up being a blessing in disguise. Martin has been playing all over the diamond in an attempt to increase his versatility, and the presence of the DH in the AL should only aid his situation further. The Jays do not have many holes in their lineup - especially when George Springer comes back from injury - but Toronto may be forced to find a spot for Martin if he rakes from the outset.

CHECK STATUS

Mickey Moniak, OF, PHI – Though it's unlikely Moniak will ever live up to his lofty draft slot, he's at least returned from the island of misfit prospects. The all-but-forgotten former No. 1 selection from 2016 has slowly but surely turned things around. Moniak had two horrific seasons in the minors over 2017 and 2018. But in 2019, he posted 11 home runs and 15 stolen bases at Double-A while hitting .252. Now 22, Moniak appeared in eight big league games in 2020 and then vied for the starting centerfield job in spring training hitting .273 while showing surprising power by clubbing two doubles, one triple and two home runs across 18 contests. Adam Haseley and Roman Quinn ultimately won out, but the platoon has been underwhelming thus far. Moniak was recently called up as Haseley was placed on the restricted list for personal reasons. Moniak will see big league at-bats in the short term, although he is off to a sluggish 0-for-8 start with six strikeouts.

Matt Manning, P, DET – The Tigers have embraced the youth movement, but perhaps their best pitching prospect has yet to reach the Majors. While Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal started the season in the big league rotation, Manning was left behind. He did suffer a forearm strain last year at the alternate site, so the club could simply be exercising caution with their prized arm. They also may not want to have three rookies in the starting rotation, even though Julio Teheran suffered a significant shoulder injury and Spencer Turnbull is just returning from COVID protocols. Still, Jose Urena has been wild and Michael Fulmer remains an injury risk. Manning is healthy now, so it may only be a matter of time before he gets the call.

Aaron Schunk, 3B, COL – The Rockies need some good news. They have the worst record in the big leagues and there are no signs the club is going to get better during the season. Nolan Arenado is gone, and in his place the Rockies have fumbled around with players out of position in the infield. Schunk played third base at Georgia, but was also the closer. He impressed the Rockies' staff at the alternate site in 2020 while also playing some second base. They have a bevy of high-upside corner infielders currently in the system, including Michael Toglia, Colton Welker, Julio Carreras and Ryan Vilade. However, Schunk may end up being the best of the bunch. Still, there's a lot of competition and that doesn't even include players like Ryan McMahon, Josh Fuentes and Brendan Rodgers at the top level.

Brayan Rocchio, 2B/SS, CLE – Rocchio has the chance to be a helium-type prospect in 2021 when he gets full-season action for the first time in his professional career. The switch-hitting infielder is now 20 and has drawn comparisons to a former Cleveland stalwart, Francisco Lindor. Rocchio is nicknamed "The Professor" because of his awareness and baseball IQ. He makes consistent contact, offers plus speed, and has even demonstrated some pop despite his small frame. Along with George Valera, Tyler Freeman and Nolan Jones, Rocchio is expected to be among the next wave of stars for Cleveland. His progress will be worth monitoring in 2021 and beyond.

DOWNGRADE

Alexander Canario, OF, SF – Canario boasts massive power, but that also comes with strikeout concerns. In addition, he's battled shoulder issues throughout his brief professional career including a torn labrum and dislocated left shoulder which required surgery in November. As a result, Canario's 2021 campaign will be delayed. His upside is huge, but he remains a ways away from making a big league impact while his command of the strike zone must improve as he ascends to the higher levels.

Ka'ai Tom, OF, OAK – A Rule 5 draft pick from the Twins, Tom slashed .321/.424/.571 this spring to earn a roster spot for the A's. Unfortunately, he hasn't been able to find his footing going 1-for-16 (.063) with one RBI so far in his first shot at the bigs. The lefty-swinging Tom was supposed to fill in the strong side of a platoon in right field, but that has not come to fruition. He hit 23 home runs in 2019 between Double-A and Triple-A, but at 26 may not have a long leash if his struggles continue.

Brent Rooker, OF, MIN – Rooker has been unable to shake the "injury-prone" label during his time in the Minnesota organization. He missed the second half of the 2019 season due to a groin injury. Rooker then suffered a fracture forearm after seven successful games in the majors last September and is currently on the Injured List due to a neck ailment. Injuries aside, the Twins also have a crowded outfield even with the departure of Eddie Rosario. Kyle Garlick beat out Rooker in spring training, Luis Arraez has been spending time in the outfield and is hitting over .300, Byron Buxton is off to a torrid start and Max Kepler is entrenched in right field. Add in Nelson Cruz at the DH slot and top prospect Alex Kirilloff waiting in the wings at the alternate site and Rooker may not be able to get many at-bats even when healthy.