Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

Games, glorious games! After the COVID-related hiatus in 2020, the return of Minor League Baseball action is such a welcome sign. Now we get to shift our focus to the field and ask questions like "Why is Jarred Kelenic still in the minors?" as he is 8-for-18 (.444) with two home runs, five RBI and two steals through the first four games for Triple-A Tacoma. The Mariners should be chomping at the bit to get him in their everyday lineup.

Corbin Carroll, another favorite of this column, is off to an equally impressive beginning to 2021. Through five games at High-A, he's slashing .333/.455/.722 with one home run, two RBI and three stolen bases. Still just 20, Carroll could have really begun the season at Double-A, but will be promoted there shortly if he keeps this pace up.

Check out Vidal Brujan's line through six contests at Triple-A: .455 with four home runs, nine RBI and one steal. He's currently outperforming his double-play mate Wander Franco, though the latter is not exactly struggling either hitting .304/.385/.696 with two home runs, five RBI and one steal through his first five. The Rays have an excellent problem of where to find big league at-bats for that blossoming duo.

Let's take a look at some more prospect production as we now have a week of games to react (and overreact) about.

UPGRADE

Jackson Kowar, P, KC – The Royals have plenty of young pitching coming through the minor league pipeline, but Kowar could end up being the best of the bunch. His first two starts at Triple-A have been dynamite allowing just one earned run over 10 innings while fanning 14 and walking four. Kowar continues to induce a bevy of ground balls, mixing a mid-90's fastball with a terrific changeup.  At 6-foot-5, he has a lot of moving parts, so the ability to repeat his delivery will be key along with the continued improvement of his curveball. Still, the results thus far have been extremely promising, and Kowar should soon see the big leagues if this upward trend continues.

Patrick Bailey, C, SF – The Giants hope Joey Bart will be their franchise catcher once Buster Posey decides to hang up his chest protector. However, Bailey was too good to pass up with the No. 13 selection in 2020. Already starting at High-A, he's hitting .320 with one home run, six RBI and a stolen base through the first five games of his professional career. The Giants have plenty of other notable bats in their system (Marco Luciano, Luis Matos, Heliot Ramos, Hunter Bishop, just to name a few), but Bailey's hot start should get him more pub.

Nick Lodolo, P, CIN – Hunter Greene's fastball has been consistently hitting triple digits, but Lodolo's ceiling should be equally as exciting for the Reds organization. For some reason, Lodolo has always been viewed as a safe, low upside hurler. That's likely due to the lack of big velocity on his fastball, which sits in the low-90's. Still, Lodolo posted a 30:1 K:BB in 18.1 innings in 2019, while his first start in the 2021 campaign was an absolute gem of five scoreless innings allowing just two hits and not walking a batter while striking out 10. His control looks elite, his curveball is a wipeout pitch and he's also been using his changeup with greater frequency. The 6-foot-6 southpaw was the seventh selection in the 2019 Draft, so it appears he's being overlooked.

Jesus Sanchez, OF, MIA – It feels like Sanchez has been around forever, but he's still only 23. And he's off to a scalding start at Triple-A hitting a blistering .556 with three home runs and 12 RBI through six appearances. Sanchez has run the gamut from future superstar to bust in a short amount of time. However, he could be turning things around and the Marlins are starving for productive outfielders for the future. JJ Bleday is the cream of the crop, but Sanchez could hit the big leagues first.

CHECK STATUS

Adam Kloffenstein, P, TOR – Kloffenstein tends to get lost in the shuffle amongst the Toronto pitching prospects, as Nate Pearson, Alek Manoah and Simeon Woods Richardson garner more notoriety. Interestingly, he was not at the team's alternate site in 2020, but pitched in an Indy-ball league in Texas where his pitching coach was Roger Clemens. Kloffenstein worked in three-inning stints, and that's essentially what he's done to begin 2021. He's started two contests at High-A, pitching 6.2 scoreless innings. The 20-year-old righty has only allowed four hits while punching out eight. The one knock on Kloffenstein has been his penchant for walking too many batters having already issued six free passes. He still supposedly boasts five pitches, the best of which is a heater than can hover near triple-digits and an extremely hard sinker. Kloffenstein is one of the few lower-level prospects who actually saw game action in 2020, which could work to his benefit.

Roansy Contreras, P, PIT – Contreras was one of four prospects sent to the Pirates in the Jameson Taillon deal and he dazzled in his first start for his new organization.  Just 21, Contreras only needed 80 pitches to get through five scoreless innings for Double-A Altoona while 11 of his 15 outs came via the K. He's always had the "stuff" - in this case, a three-pitch mix of fastball/slider/changeup - but has not yet been able to put it all together on the diamond. Contreras also doesn't have ideal size for a starter, although this could be his coming out party as he matures.

Oswald Peraza, SS, NYY – Peraza may end up being a better real life player than fantasy commodity. He offers upper echelon fielding skills, both in terms of his glove and his arm.  However, the bat has not quite caught up to the fielding, at least not yet.  Still, Peraza stole 23 bases in 65 games in 2019 and has been a terror on the basepaths thus far in 2021 with seven in six contests at High-A - including five in his last two. Peraza will never hit for much power, and it's questionable whether he can hit for average at the higher levels. Still, his penchant for thievery should still turn some heads.

Ethan Small, P, MIL – We have already written about Aaron Ashby earlier this year, who tossed four shutout innings in his Triple-A debut. With Antoine Kelly still making his way back from surgery, the next best pitching prospect for the Brew Crew is Small. The southpaw had a rough first outing at Double-A, surrendering seven hits and four runs in just three innings but also struck out six batters. Small jumped right over High-A, so he may take some time to adjust to the leveling up in terms of competition. The Milwaukee rotation has been surprisingly solid to begin the season, though it remains to be seen how long the likes of Freddy Peralta, Brett Anderson and Adrian Houser can hold down the fort. The Brewers have done an impeccable job of cultivating homegrown pitching talent recently, and Small, Ashby and Kelly could be the next wave of arms.

DOWNGRADE

Colton Welker, 3B, COL – Welker has been suspended for 80 games following a positive test for performance-enhancing substances. He nearly made the Rockies out of Spring Training as a kind of utility infielder, with the ability to play either first base or third base. Welker has decent power and contact skills, but the hope is his future ballpark will bump up his numbers. However, due to the suspension, his MLB debut will not occur until the second half of the season at the earliest.

Kyle Muller, P, ATL – Muller was bombed in his first start at Triple-A and his next wasn't much better. Through two outings, he's allowed three home runs and nine earned runs over a span of seven innings. Muller has fanned 10 batters, but has otherwise been incredibly hittable over this small sample size. He vaulted onto the prospect scene in 2018 and then had an equally impressive 2019 at Double-A. However, Muller has been known to be wild and 2021 has been no different so far with eight walks in those seven innings. The 6-foot-7 southpaw has a dominant fastball, but he needs to locate it better, while also throwing his secondary pitches with greater frequency and efficiency.

Matt Allan, P, NYM – The hype for Allan following his stint at the alternate site in 2020 led many to believe a coming out party was in the cards for him in 2021. He boasted a devastating three-pitch arsenal and was viewed as not only the Mets top prospect, but also a helium-type prospect in the overall rankings. Unfortunately, instead of honing his craft at High-A or Double-A, he will be undergoing Tommy John surgery due to a partial tear in his UCL. As a result, Allan will miss all of this season and the bulk of the 2022 campaign. On the plus side for the Mets, 2020's second round selection, J.T. Ginn, is over one year removed from Tommy John surgery and should soon be making his organizational debut.