Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

Welcome back to the Minor League Barometer! This column will operate likes it has in the past by analyzing several phenoms each week who are either helping or hurting their causes. It will be skewed more toward players closer to the big leagues, though that doesn't mean we'll avoid highlighting some neophytes at the lower levels making waves. This isn't a ranking of prospects. And each week's entry isn't supposed to be exhaustive while fantasy impact will be weighed more heavily over real-life value.

For the first edition, let's focus on some players like Dylan Crews who will either make the Opening Day rosters for their respective squads or certainly make their way to the Majors later this season.  After this week, we'll try to stay away from the obvious names - yet there are simply too many big-time phenoms ready to make an immediate splash to ignore.

UPGRADE

Roki Sasaki, P, LAD – Sasaki's first start during the Tokyo Series was a dud, but there's no question he's among the top up-and-comers in baseball. While there may be some durability concerns that could end up putting him on an innings limit, the upside is tantalizing. The 23-year-old has been pitching professionally for a few years and last season posted a career-worst ERA...of 2.35. There could be some growing pains for Sasaki as he adjusts to a new home and league, yet the hype is real and he immediately slots into the rotation.

Jasson Dominguez, OF, NYY – The Martian begins the season as a starting outfielder for the Bronx Bombers following the departure of Juan Soto, who ultimately took his talents across town. Power and bat speed represent Dominguez's primary assets, though he could also steal 20 bases. He's even hit for average at most of his minor-league stops, but that is less of a guarantee.  Dominguez just turned 22 and his prospect status is not bloated simply based upon being a Yankees prospect. He'll immediately receive regular action and should be a mainstay as long as his fielding is passable.

Cam Smith, 3B/OF, HOU – The Astros let Alex Bregman walk, but they did sign Christian Walker and Isaac Paredes to bolster their corner infield spots. Their weakness is actually in the outfield, resulting in a shift by Jose Altuve to one outfield spot and Smith going to the other one following his acquisition from the Cubs in the Kyle Tucker trade. Smith was the 14th overall selection in 2024, yet he quickly slugged his way up the ranks by slashing .313/.396/.609 with seven homers and more walks than strikeouts in 32 games between Low-A, High-A and Double-A.  His bat will play anywhere, so it may only be a matter of whether the Astros can find a spot for him in the field with Yordan Alvarez locked in at DH.

Jac Caglianone, 1B, KC – Caglianone won't start the year with the big club, though he turned heads in the spring sporting a staggering 1.776 OPS with three home runs across 14 contests. He looks every bit the part of a starting first baseman in terms of physique and left-handed power stroke. Caglianone also managed to make consistent contact this spring as he only fanned four times while drawing five walks. Vinnie Pasquantino remains entrenched at first for now, but the Royals won't hesitate to bring up Caglianone and use him at DH if he turns his small preseason sample size into a hot start at Double-A or Triple-A.

CHECK STATUS

Jackson Jobe, P, DET – Jobe's upside is massive and has earned the No. 5 starter slot out of spring training. Detroit has had a mixed bag in recent years when it's come to developing starting pitching with AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal a clear success story while Casey Mize and Matt Manning have failed to live up to their potential. Jobe offers elite stuff in terms of movement, velocity and sheer number of pitches (four). The only questions concern his command and potential durability as he's battled some walk issues and injuries while yet to pitch more than 91.2 innings during a single season. All of the above could limit Jobe's production and effectiveness in his first full season in the bigs.

Drake Baldwin, C, ATL – Baldwin begins the year as Atlanta's starting catcher due to Sean Murphy being injured. With Travis d'Arnaud signing with the Angels, Baldwin is the clear top option - at least until Murphy returns. The prospect slashed .298/.407/.484 with 12 homers and almost as many walks as strikeouts over 72 games last season once he got to Triple-A. Baldwin also pummeled the ball in the Arizona Fall League while hitting .278 with a .395 OBP this spring. He's one of baseball's top catching prospects, so it's not out of the question he could retain his place even when Murphy comes back.

Kumar Rocker, P, TEX – Injuries to Cody Bradford and Jon Gray have Rocker poised to crack the Rangers' starting rotation. It seems like he's been around forever, yet has only recorded 11.2 innings in the big leagues following a rather speedy return from Tommy John surgery. Rocker has always had impressive strikeout numbers, but he's been crushed this spring to the tune of 13 earned runs on 15 hits through nine innings while walking six. The sample size is small, though he boasts the size, name and pedigree to still become a frontline starter in the Majors - he'll just need to maintain his control and health to do so.

Sean Burke, P, CHW – Burke will be the White Sox's Opening Day starter. In four appearances near the end of a completely lost season for the club, he posted a 1.42 ERA and 22:7 K:BB in 19 innings. Burke fanned more than a batter per inning throughout his minor-league career, so the strikeout stuff is legitimate. Control has also been a problem, which has curbed his overall effectiveness. Burke should have a long leash based upon Chicago's low expectations, though he may not get much help in terms of run support or fielding. He'll also need to prove he can handle a starter's workload, including overcoming previous shoulder troubles.

DOWNGRADE

Nick Kurtz, 1B, OAK – The future remains bright for Kurtz, but it appears unlikely he'll get on the big-league roster out of spring training with first base/DH one of the few places where the A's actually carry some talent. Brent Rooker enjoyed a sensational season in 2024 and was rewarded with a contract extension this offseason while former top catching prospect Tyler Soderstrom has shifted to first and will start off there. Seth Brown will get some work in the outfield, but will also back up Soderstrom at first. Add in Kurtz's injury history while hurting his hand getting hit by a pitch earlier this month, and the Athletics will likely exercise extreme caution with their top prospect. That isn't to say he can't power his way to the bigs later in the campaign, yet it probably won't come until at least May.

Ronny Mauricio, 3B/2B, NYM – Mauricio hasn't suffered a setback in his recovery from an ACL tear suffered last offseason, but he'll still start off at extended spring training. And with the re-signing of Pete Alonso, Mark Vientos will stay at third for the time being to leaving second as a possibility for Mauricio after he comes back. And that's far from a guarantee even with the injury to Jeff McNeil as the Mets have a glut at the position with both Brett Baty and Luisangel Acuna.  With Jesse Winker and Starling Marte also candidates at DH, there's no obvious slot for Mauricio even when healthy. With the organization all-in following the massive Juan Soto contract, Mauricio's best chance at consistent playing time this season may be on another club.

Deyvison De Los Santos, 1B, MIA – The fact De Los Santos couldn't make the big-league squad out of camp is slightly concerning given the Marlins' lack of offensive options. He boasts impeccable power, but also huge strikeout numbers and a relative lack of walks to balance those punch-outs. De Los Santos is a free swinger who's defensively limited while clubbing 40 homers during 2024 between Double-A and Triple-A, so Miami is banking of his power production to outweigh the other holes in his game. If he gets off to a hot start, the 21-year-old could see the bigs soon enough, though maybe expectations should be tempered aside from a few long balls.

Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF, MIN – Rodriguez battled the injury bug while shuffling in and out of the lineup for what seemed like all of last year due to hand/thumb issues. He's only played over 50 games in a minor league season once with no more than 100. The biggest assets for Rodriguez are his power and ability to draw walks, though strikeouts continue to pile up. An ankle ailment this spring resulted in a quick demotion to begin 2025. Rodriguez also doesn't necessarily have a place to play right now while Walker Jenkins will be next up for opportunities as early as next season.  Rodriguez still offers tremendous upside and should get to the Majors this year if all goes according to plan, but that is contingent on his health and ability to make contact.