MLB Barometer: Navigating the Trade Deadline

There is much excitement and trepidation in the air with the Aug. 1 trade deadline quickly approaching. A fantasy owner relying solely on saves from Hector Rondon and Cody Allen could have their dreams of a league championship flipped upside down if the latter gets moved to a new home as a setup man this week. It's the one week of the year that we have truly have no control over and it can leave our fantasy teams reeling.

It's one of the reasons why it's so important to leave FAAB money in your wallet. Not to say that there's a closer waiting on the wire for you at the moment. But trades can create new opportunities. Perhaps you can get a week of saves from Brad Ziegler before Craig Kimbrel returns. Maybe someone dropped Carlos Estevez in one of your leagues similar to what happened to Jeff and I in the Beat Jeff Erickson 2 league. Although the solution may not always be ideal, there's always a way to rebound from such roto crises if you've got the FAAB money to push fellow league owners around.

Speaking of our leftover budgets, keep an eye on how Alex Bregman and David Dahl perform this week. Both are near-elite prospects who should command heavy FAAB dollars this Sunday. Let's just keep expectations in check since we're dealing with rookies. Not everyone enters center stage with a bang like Carlos Correa did last season. Sure, in some leagues, you have no chance to acquire either. Either you don't have enough dollars saved to compete for them, or there's that one guy in your league in 10th place who has either been saving his for them, or just want to rain on the league leaders' parade.

Make sure to watch both players' for yourselves this week. Give them the eye test and don't solely rely on scouts, scouting reports and minor league stats. It's quite possible that either Bregman or Dahl struggle as A.J. Reed did before getting demoted, though Dahl in Coors could be quite tempting, especially if Carlos Gonzalez is on the move. Perhaps their time to shine isn't until next season. Or the season after. Moreover, if either struggles mightily at the plate (say 2-for-22) this week, you can be sure that the player might be available for a little less than originally surmised. Your leaguemates always overreact to recent performance, and it might provide an opportunity to bid for them at a bit of a discount in relation to their price today.

Either way, between the trade deadline and the two stud prospects, it seems like most leagues will have little FAAB money remaining after this Sunday. If you're still competitive in your league and want to win it, make sure you have some left over for the stretch run when you'll need it to nickel-and-dime your competitors for helpful two-start pitchers, late-season bloomers and good hitters and pitchers who may have been dropped prematurely.

RISERS

Justin Turner (3B, LAD)

Turner has garnered plenty of attention lately. Only rookie shortstop Trevor Story has been hotter the last 10 days. Since teams returned from the break July 15, Turner has eight homers, 14 RBI, two stolen bases and is hitting .378 in eight games. Turner got off to a slow and worrisome start, hitting just three homers in April and May. Since then, Turner has hit 15, including eight. He is mashing righties to the tune of .302/.361/.549 with a .910 OPS, but continues to struggle against lefties (.169/.297/.301, .598). Turner has already surpassed his career high in home runs and should shoot past his career highs in runs and RBI in the next week or two. Turner came in as quite the draft-day bargain, typically taken as the 24th third baseman, usually available after Round 20 in 12-team formats. His ADP quickly crept up in March as most folks recognized a bargain staring them in the face in his role as the Dodgers' No. 3 hitter. Turner's hot streak will inevitably cool off its current pace. But Turner is a larger-than-life player who will come through for the Blue Crew in the clutch and down the stretch. Another 10-12 homers and 40 RBI and Turner is looking at a 30/100 season. Not too shabby for a guy many grew impatient with and dropped in dozens of NFBC 12-teamers this May.

Jake Smolinski (OF, OAK)

Completely out of the playoff race and having little to play for, the A's decided to demote a struggling Billy Burns and allow Smolinski the opportunity to showcase his talents full-time. A 2007 second-round pick of the Nationals, Smolinski was drafted out of high school where he pitched and played shortstop. He spent six years shuttling his way throughout the minors for the Nats and Marlins before signing with the Rangers prior to the 2014 season. He was promoted for a cup of coffee in July and then again in September – a stellar showing as he hit .349 with 3 HR, 12 R, 12 RBI in 24 games his rookie year. Last season played in 76 games between the Rangers and Athletics, but hit just .193, though a .208 BABIP was partly to blame. Smolinski has been up with the big club since May, but spent most of his time as a pinch hitter, receiving 15 starts in 38 games between May 20 and June 30. In July, Smolinski is hitting .311 with a .404 OBP despite receiving most of his at-bats near the bottom of the lineup. He is in the midst of a seven-game hitting streak and received much love from teammates Saturday after hitting a game-tying two-run shot off Rays' reliever Alex Colome in the bottom of the ninth before rookie Ryon Healy hit the walk-off blast. Smolinski might not yet deserve a pickup in 12-team formats due to the smorgasbord of options available, but he should get scooped up in all 15-team leagues. His 9.2 percent strikeout rate will rise with regular plate appearances, though it should not skyrocket. He is known as a patience hitter and has showed great poise and control at the plate over his extended stay in the minor leagues. The 27-year old will be an interesting name to remember for the late rounds in drafts next season. Update: Hit second on Monday but was hitless in five at-bats. The silver lining is that he hit higher in the lineup.

Collin McHugh (SP, HOU)

After a less than stellar start to the season, McHugh has righted his ship and has produced five quality starts in his last six. He was the 49th starting pitcher taken in NFBC drafts this March, which might seem way down there until you notice how many SPs were taken in the first 15 rounds, on average, and that he held an ADP of 178. His record (7-6) and ratios (4.18 ERA, 1.42 WHIP) leave much to be desired. But McHugh has a 22.4 percent strikeout rate (nearly one per inning) and has a 2.66 ERA through four July starts. He has one of the better curveballs in the game – a 73 mph ditty that's kept opposing hitters on their heels to the tune of a .215 average. McHugh has nearly identical splits against lefties and righties this season, as well as at home and on the road. Best of all, McHugh keeps it steady from start to start – no outing worse than five earned runs allowed in any of his 20 starts. I wouldn't doubt his ability to get those ratios closer to 3.85/1.35 by the end of the season. Without the K-rate, he's just a run-of-the-mill SP3/4.

Andrew Cashner (SP, SD)

Cashner, I can't quit you. I picked him up on four of my six NFBC 12-teamers without much of a fight – an average of $13 per team. Either my leaguemates weren't thinking longterm and were scared off by the start at Toronto this week, or they don't believe in his recent resurgence and think Cashner will sucker them in only to falter yet again. His last two starts were dynamic, though. Only seven hits and two earned runs allowed over 11.2 innings against the Giants at home and the Cardinals in St. Louis. His strikeout-to-walk ratio in those two outings: 17:0. Cashner was a hard faller in an early May Barometer where I noted that that he has see-sawed his entire career between high-strikeout guy with awful control and sharp control guy with below league average strikeouts. Over the last calendar year, there has been nothing to smile about in regard to his performance. That is, until his latest two outings. By the time this is published, Cashner may already find himself in an upgraded situation – as a member of the Marlins or Astros rotation. Being a Cashner owner once again, I'd love either of those outcomes but believe a team like the Orioles should be the one making a push for him. Even if the AL East puts a kibosh on his 12-teamer value. The fact of the matter is that Cashner can be a very good pitcher. He is healthy, has a solid arsenal and could be helpful to a team in playoff contention. His fastball no longer hits triple digits, but still occasionally hovers around 98. Here's hoping he proves his doubters wrong and can help me, and fellow owners, down the stretch.

HONORABLE MENTIONS

Hanley Ramirez (1B, BOS)

Ramirez just had the best week of his season and I pretty much missed it. I own Ramirez on a live-drafted NFBC squad where I struggle weekly figuring out which two outfielders to sit each week between Ramirez, Ryan Braun, Adam Jones, Michael Saunders, Odubel Herrera, Yasiel Puig and Ben Zobrist. Puig has been an easy guy to bench lately, but that's a whole other article. With mid-weekly offensive changes allowed in the game, I figured sitting Hanley for two on the road against the Giants was an easy move. A three home-run Tuesday night stung badly but was impossible to predict. Meanwhile, on my CDM Diamond Challenge team (season-long salary cap league), I sat a low-percentage Ramirez last week for what would have been an immensely helpful effort to a power-deprived squad – five homers, 12 runs batted in and six runs scored. Despite being somewhat of a disappointment this season, Ramirez's line (51 R, 13 HR, 60 RBI, 7 SB, .282) looks respectable on paper. His 9.7 percent walk rate is nearly double last year's 4.9 percent rate and he continues to hit behind one of the league's most fearsome sluggers in David Ortiz. There's no telling what is in store for Ramirez, but I'd put my money on a strong finish over these final 10 weeks.

Billy Hamilton (OF, CIN)

Those who have been patient with Hamilton have been handsomely rewarded lately. Since returning from the All-Star break, Hamilton has stolen 10 bases. Twice as many Jonathan Villar, who ranks second in baseball since the break. With that jump, Hamilton ranks third in the league with 32 stolen bases behind Villar's 36 and Starling Marte's 34, placing him as the near-favorite to lead the majors this season. Hamilton hits second in the Reds' lineup most nights and his bump in production corresponds with Joey Votto finally breaking out of a season-long slump (.517 BA with a 1.512 OPS since the break). Hamilton is hitting just .251 and continues to struggle getting on base (.299 OBP, six percent walk-rate) but when he does get on, he turns on the jets (two 3-SB games last week). His sixth-round ADP this season carried with it his inherent lack of contact skills and a disappointed 2015 season. If he continues to run rampant and win the major league stolen-base crown, expect that ADP to rise back to the 30-50 overall range we witnessed last season.

Jedd Gyorko (MI, STL)

If only Gyorko could play his former team more often. Half of Gyorko's 12 home runs this season have come against the Padres, including four dingers in three games in a series against them in the first half of last week. The Cardinals have ridden the hot hand as Gyorko has started eight consecutive games, though he went hitless in his two most recent games against the Dodgers last weekend and will go back to glorified backup status once Matt Carpenter and Jhonny Peralta are off the DL. His .262 average is the best mark of his career as is his season-low 19.8 strikeout rate. But a zebra rarely changes his stripes in this league. Gyorko is as streaky as they come. Despite his dual (2B/SS) eligibility in most leagues, there is no great reason to run to the wire to grab him. In a pinch for a MI in deeper leagues, fantasy owners should opt for the recently activated Chris Owings from the Diamondbacks.

Sean Manaea (SP, OAK)

Not trying to pat myself on the back, but Manaea was the one rookie starting pitcher I planned on owning this season. I tweeted his praises this spring and drafted him on both of my 50-pick NFBC slow drafts in February and March. I also own Manaea on four NFBC 12-teamers and in the Main Event. I'm all in. The southpaw with a simple three-pitch arsenal (fastball, slider, changeup) was a first-round pick and was the centerpiece of the Ben Zobrist trade with the Royals in the middle of last summer. He joined the A's rotation in late April after only making three starts in Triple-A. He had a rough start to his major-league career, allowing 25 earned runs in 32 innings over his first six starts through the end of May, including a 2.2-inning disaster, serving up eight runs to the Red Sox. Since the beginning of June, Manaea has made nine starts – allowing more than two earned runs in just two of those outings. During that stretch, he maintained a 45:10 strikeout-to-walk ratio and has not walked a batter in any of his last three starts. His most recent start was the best of his career – seven strikeouts with no walks allowed in eight scoreless innings. Manaea is still owned in less than 50 percent of NFBC 12-team leagues, which is surprising considering his recent stretch and the fact that he calls pitcher-friendly Coliseum home. His outing this week against the Rangers in Arlington is scary on paper. A solid performance this week would give his owners the confidence to use him in any situation. Manaea has a bright future in the big leagues and it appears that it's already started.

FALLERS

Brandon Belt (1B, SF)

Belt's fantasy value has taken a drastic tumble the last month. He is one of several pieces of the Giants' offense that has underwhelmed recently. In July, Belt is hitting .194 with just four extra-base hits and no balls hit out of the yard. After hitting .320, .280 and .300 in each of the last three months, Belt's recent struggles has dipped his average to .278. He has just 10 HR and 47 RBI and is off pace from the 25 HR, 100 RBI some of us Belt fans expected. His 14 percent walk rate is the driving force behind a splendid .384 OBP. On the flip side, Belt has failed to provide the smidgen of value in stolen bases we expected, getting caught in all four of his steal attempts this season. His flyball rate has increased to 46 percent from last season's 40 percent rate but his HR/FB rate has taken a 40 percent dip from last year's rate down to 8.5 percent. Belt is simply not hitting the ball hard enough. Per Baseball Savants, Belt's 85 mph exit velocity is below the league average of 89 mph. A severe dip from last season's 95 mph that was significantly above last year's average. The southpaw is a streaky hitter who may need to adjust toward being more of a line-drive hitter and fitting in with the rest of his high average, low power teammates. Update: Two-run homer on Monday. Nice.

Ben Revere (OF, WAS)

The 28-year-old speedster is in the midst of a lost season. Revere tweaked his oblique on Opening Day and missed the first month of the season. Outside of occasional flashes of burst on the base paths, the once reliable leadoff hitter with an empty career .288 batting average has disappointed his fantasy owners. Although his 5.4 percent walk rate remains in the general vicinity of previous seasons, it's a gruesome .263 on-base percentage that has impacted manager Dusty Baker's decision to have him ride the pine more often. Revere has received more days off than he's been used to outside of his late-season stint with the Blue Jays last season. Rookie Trea Turner has led off against southpaws lately as Revere takes a seat on the bench against lefties. Perhaps the oblique, the peskiest of injuries that affects one's swing, is still an issue. Nevertheless, Revere joins fellow eighth/ninth-rounder of 12-team leagues Billy Burns as huge one-trick pony disappointments. Revere need not be dropped, but he can be stashed on benches of almost all 12-team leagues except those absolutely desperate to gain in the stolen base category.

Jason Heyward (OF, CHC)

Heyward's sixth-round ADP in 12-team formats seemed like a fair price entering the season. He was no longer considered an upside pick and not much more was expected than a 12-HR, 20-SB season with a batting average that won't hurt you. Most important, those targeting him were doing so for the runs scored. An expectation of epic proportions considering he was slated to hit ahead of Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant (second coming of the Bash Bros) in the Cubs' lineup. Unfortunately, Heyward's season turned to near disaster. Just four home runs, a .231 batting average and on pace for less than 80 runs. Seems crazy, right? FanGraphs' August Fagerstrom's piece on the glaring hole in Heyward's swing illustrates his sudden inability to hit well off the lower half of the strike zone, typically his sweet spot. Despite slugging slightly better in the upper half of the zone this year, Heyward's slugging percentage in the lower half of the zone has dipped more than 150 points (from .462 SLG last year to .299 this year), which certifies severe regression. We would have to assume hitting coach John Mallee is working to fix Heyward's swing and get the 26-year old slugging comfortably in that lower half zone where he's been so clutch over the course of his career. Heyward is just entering his prime as a hitter. He needs to make the necessary adjustments as since he's entering his power prime at age 27, even though 27 is just an arbitrary number without much statistical support. But this is a guy who hit 27 home runs as a 22-year-old. Although he has been written off by fantasy owners, who is to doubt Heyward's ability to make adjustments, rebuild his confidence and surprise everyone with his first 30-HR season in 2017? These are the types of players you never rule out. This year's basement dwellers can be next year's roto darlings. It sure doesn't look like this will be the case with Heyward, but we truly never know. That's why we play the game.

Jeff Samardzija (SP, SF)

I recall vividly the debate I had with my Main Event partner about the Giants' other big offseason acquisition for their rotation this spring. Andrew was unable to make it out to Vegas so I had to draft live – with him on the phone! It was, by far, the most difficult thing I've ever had to do in my years of playing fantasy baseball. Although we saw eye to eye on much of the player pool, Samardzija was a true point of contention. I simply didn't want anything to do with him this season despite the potential of him bouncing back out of the roto gutter. After all, Shark lead the majors in earned runs and hits allowed last year. He became much too hittable, and my belief was that a simple move to the NL in a pitcher's park was not going to save him.

Fast forward to the Vegas draft. Our 11th-round pick in this 15-team format was coming up and we had waited a long while for our SP3 after taking Stephen Strasburg and Matt Harvey (insert angry comment here) in the second and third rounds. I was hung up on taking a shot on Kenta Maeda, and Andrew reminded me that Samardzija was still on the board. Obviously, it was tough to argue with 14 other guys sitting around a draft table and you look like the crazy guy talking to yourself. By some magical twist of fate, our call was disconnected and with our pick on the clock, I took the liberty of adding Maeda for us. The rest is history. Not to put Andrew down. He's one of the best roto baseball managers I know. But both of us can be extremely stubborn when it comes to "our" guys, especially after months of research.

What's Samardzija been up to lately? A 5.55 ERA in four July starts and a 6.83 ERA in five June starts where opposing batters hit .304 against him. Who's to say the Shark won't buckle down and pitch down the stretch like he did in May (4-2, 2.08 ERA, 40:8 K:BB)? There are just some pitchers we have strong feelings about, whether good or bad. Half the time we are wrong, but we have to continue to stick by our research and intuition. It's bad roto strategy to hold a grudge against a player if they've hurt our rosters in previous seasons. Often, hitters or pitchers who have struggled the previous season end up being some of the best ADP values on the draft board. The key is to remove the emotional element from our decision making and use rational judgments and specific determining factors when assessing players for drafts.