MLB Betting Picks Today: Expert MLB Picks and Props for Tuesday, July 4

MLB Betting Picks Today: Expert MLB Picks and Props for Tuesday, July 4

This article is part of our MLB Picks series.

MLB Betting Picks Today: Expert MLB Picks and Props for Tuesday, July 4

Season: 50-60 -29.42 units

Prior Article: 2-2 -1.02 units 

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Atlanta Braves at Cleveland Guardians

We saw what this Braves lineup did to poor Eury Perez, who was among the hottest pitchers on the planet over the last month. Well, I am not shying away from the Braves in this spot on the road against Shane Bieber

The Braves average 5.6 runs per game on the road and 6.5 per game over their last 11 on the road (9-2).  They are 24-3 overall in their last 27 with a 7.0-3.9 average runs per game vs. runs allowed for at ridiculous 2.1 run differential. 

The Braves have gone OVER 4.5 runs 21 out of 27 games during this stretch (78 percent) while beating the -1.5 run line in 20 out of their last 24 wins. One of the Guardians' best hitters, Josh Naylor, is not expected to play today. 

MLB Best Bets for Braves at Twins

  • Braves OVER 4.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -130) 
  • Braves -1.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings +130)

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Los Angeles Angels at San Diego Padres

When you have two strong starting pitchers, the UNDER is always something to consider and we have that with Shohei Ohtani against Joe Musgrove. I looked at Ohtani's starts when the total is 6.5-7.5 and the average score has been 6.8 runs (3.4-3.4). 

But the key here is what happened yesterday with Mike Trout and he is going to be out of the lineup today. Trout is worth at least 0.5 runs if not more to the total. Musgrove has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 6 out of his last 7 starts. 

MLB Best Bets for Angels at Padres    

  • Angels/Padres UNDER 7.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -115) 

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Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers  

This system does not come up very often, but when it does I love it - Road Dog getting +1.5 at Even or Plus money. The Dodgers are much better at home 25-15 vs. the road 22-22, but the Pirates have beaten them in 7 out of the last 10 overall. 

The Dodgers are just 6-4 overall when favored by -200 or greater at home. That is not a good record. 

The Pirates started off hot, but then came back to reality with a 39-45 record (5-5 in their last 10). The Dodgers are just 15-15 over their last 30 and just do not deserve to be -200 favorites in this spot with Emmet Sheehan against Luis Ortiz

The good thing about +1.5 is that even if the Pirates lose by 1 run, it wins.

MLB Best Bets for Pirates at Dodgers  

  • Pirates +1.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings +100)

MLB Best Bets Today Recap

  • Braves OVER 4.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -130) 
  • Braves -1.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings +130)
  • Angels/Padres UNDER 7.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -115) 
  • Pirates +1.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings +100)

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael Rathburn
Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. Rath won the 2016 FSWA "Baseball Article of the Year, Online" award and was a finalist for the FSWA Best Baseball Series in 2011.
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