This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Wednesday night is packed to the brim with MLB action. There are 13 games on the slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET or later. Alas, we miss out on getting to jump on Mariners facing Patrick Corbin, but the options still abound. Here are my lineup recommendations.
Pitching
Kodai Senga, NYM vs. MIL ($10,100): So far, Senga at home and Senga on the road have been different experience. While away starts have yielded a 4.58 ERA, at Citi Field the newly-minted MLB pitcher has a 2.52 ERA. The Brewers are one of a few teams fighting to avoid being in the bottom five in runs scored, and a big issue for them is the fact they are 29th in team batting average.
Drew Smyly, CHC vs. PHI ($7,400): Smyly is coming off a good start that dropped his ERA back down to 3.38. Philadelphia is just below average in terms of runs scored, but the key to me here is that Smyly is a southpaw. A Phillies lineup powered by Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber is susceptible in such a matchup.
Dane Dunning, TEX vs. DET ($6,100): The Rangers have gotten by on the mound without much from Jacob deGrom because some unexpected names have stepped up. Dunning is one of those. Starting the season in the pen, since becoming a starter he has a 3.16 ERA in nine outings. While the Athletics have separated themselves as the clear worst offensive team in MLB, the Tigers could be next in line, and they are ensconced at 29th in team OPS.
Top Targets
There is an argument that Shohei Ohtani ($6,500) is the best hitter in baseball. I hear he's solid on the mound, too. Hitting .304, the one-time MVP has 28 homers, 64 RBI, and 11 stolen bases. He'll get to face righty Lucas Giolito on Wednesday. Giolito's overall ERA is bolstered by his 2.36 ERA at home, compared to his 4.64 ERA on the road.
By being kept away from lefties, Jake Fraley ($4,700) has been able to produce a .266 average with 11 homers and 12 stolen bases for the Reds. Since 2021, he has a sub-.500 OPS against lefties, but an .871 OPS against right handers. Kyle Gibson is a throwback pitcher, but a mediocre one. He doesn't allow many home runs, and he doesn't generate a lot of strikeouts, but he has a 4.30 ERA because he allows a lot of contact, with lefties in particular hitting .279 against him.
Bargain Bats
Over the last few seasons, Anthony Rizzo ($3,800) has become a southpaw who has hit his fellow lefties much better than righties. Since 2021, the former Cub has a .914 OPS versus left-handed pitchers. J.P. Sears, a former Yankee, has a 5.05 FIP and has allowed 1.94 home runs per nine innings, including 2.1 at home. Additionally, lefties have hit .288 against him in his career.
Ezequiel Tovar ($3,800) has graduated from prospect status, so he is no longer the top prospect in Colorado's (dire) farm system, and it's been an up-and-down experience, as is often the case with young players. Hey, at least he has a .787 OPS at home, and he's hit lefties and righties at a similar level. The Dodgers could be pulling out another bullpen game in this one, with Michael Grove perhaps starting or operating as a bulk reliever. Given the questions, I don't want a Rockies hitter with significant splits, but I do want to take advantage of Coors Field. It's easier to take a gamble at shortstop.
Stacks to Consider
Dodgers at Rockies (Kyle Freeland): Mookie Betts ($6,100), Will Smith ($5,600), James Outman ($4,100)
I mentioned Coors earlier, and while the Rockies lack a lineup worth stacking, the Dodgers are a different story. Freeland may have a 3.42 ERA at home compared to a 5.92 ERA on the road this season, since 2021 he has a 5.01 ERA at home, so that's atypical. The lefty is extremely easy to hit, which doesn't serve him well. Since 2021 he has allowed a .276 average to righties, but lefties have actually hit .304 against him.
Over the last three seasons, Betts has a .942 OPS against lefties. While he's been much better at home in that time, this is Coors Field, so I am not concerned about that. Smith is having his best season as a hitter, having slashed .286/.400/.507 with 12 home runs. A catcher who has slugged .503 in his career is a dream at home. Finding a third bat was tricky, given injuries for the Dodgers, guys with no power, and southpaws who can't hit lefties at all mostly being in the mix. Outman, though, has slugged .427, and he has a .750 OPS against lefties.
Orioles vs. Reds (Luke Weaver): Adley Rutschman ($5,100), Cedric Mullins ($4,700), Gunnar Henderson ($4,600)
Weaver is primed to finish with an ERA over six for the third time in four seasons. That's bad! His 5.51 FIP shows that he hasn't been terribly unlucky, and he's allowed 2.09 home runs per nine innings as well. Righties and lefties have both excelled against Weaver, so really it's just about jumping on this matchup.
Rutschman is a switch hitter, and this year he's been better against lefties. Last season, though, he struggled against lefties but had an .889 OPS against righties. Through both campaigns, though, he's posted an .894 OPS at home, so that's good enough for me. Mullins has a .357 OBP with eight homers and 13 stolen bases, having missed time so that he's done this across 56 games. Not a significant power guy in total, against righties the southpaw has an .850 OPS over the last three seasons. Henderson was considered by some the best prospect in baseball, and he's looked like it recently. Over his last three weeks he has an 1.066 OPS. He also has an .877 OPS versus righties in his career.
Rangers vs. Tigers (Joey Wentz): Adolis Garcia ($5,400), Josh Jung ($4,700), Ezequiel Duran ($3,400)
Wentz was decent in seven starts for the Tigers last year, but while that earned him a spot in a bad rotation for 2023, it hasn't been replicable. Through 15 outings, Wentz has a 6.72 ERA and 5.45 FIP. While lefties have hit .254 against the southpaw, righties have hit .290 so I figured I'd stack right-handed batters.
Having hit 19 homers and slugged .500, Garcia could beat his previous high of 31 homers, and he's primed for his second 100-RBI season in a row in baseball's best lineup. Being at home helps, as he has an .833 OPS at home since 2021. Still a rookie, and thus a favorite to be the AL Rookie of the Year with the numbers he's put up, Jung is a slugger with a clear affinity for facing lefties. In his career he's slugged a whopping .613 against southpaws. Duran saw his teammates excelling in 2023 and figured, "Hey, I'll do that too). He's slashed .319/.359/.541, and in his career he has an .896 OPS at home.
